So far; Uncle8888 has participated in three focus group discussion sessions earning $80, $100 and $120 i.e. total $300 since his retirement from full-time job in Sep 2016. Previously; he was not keen in monetizing his half day annual leave to attend such session; but nowadays it is different story when he has plenty of free time to burn and also with no additional transport cost by leveraging on his $60 monthly concession pass. Okay lah! He has earned more than 60 cai fun!
Since this is one way trip flying into Tokyo and bullet train from Tokyo to Kyoto, and then train from Kyoto to Osaka and flying back home from Osaka. 7 days JR Rail pass of JPY 29,110 doesn't seen cheaper? Someone previously on this one way trip and using 7 days JR Rail pass?
Hmm ... stock market! Great inequality happens in the stock market! Inequality in account size! Inequality in access to financial materials, insiders and Management! Inequality in access to high quality and timely financial reports Inequality in access to ... blah blah blah As retail traders or investors; we don't have any serious doubts with these inequalities in the market. We believe we can made more and more money in the stock market. Some may even power up their investment return through leverages.
Leverage (using OPM) through borrowing or margin is fun as you may achieve higher ROC on your own capital invested after deducting the cost of leverages. But; leverage is also known as double edged sword! Another way of using OPM and feeling shiok and without the threat of double edged sword is .... Read? Free Shares From ComfortDelGro Take back your own invested capital and let the profits or OPM from the market continue to run and collect dividends. Shiok man! When your account size gets larger; lagi lagi shiok or sibei shiok as it is OPM in the market! How to scare of market volatility? That is passive income! No capital at risk! Ho ho!
Somehow this thought came into Uncle8888's investing mind on fundamental analysis as retail investors. As outsiders how far into the future can we as retail investors analyze company's business/fundamental based on publicly disclosed materials and quarterly financial reports. We can analyze the past but how far into the future? Uncle8888 started this 8 HWW (Hours Work Week) last June 2017with 16 outlets in 8 retail malls in Hougang, Orchard, Bugis+, Doby Ghaut and Raffles City. In less than one year into this job; he realized tough competition in F&B space.
Jun 2017 : 16 outlets in 8 shopping malls 3th month: Aug 2017 1 outlet closed shop and left with 15 outlets in 8 shopping malls 4th month : Sep 2017 1 outlet closed shop and left with 14 outlets in 8 shopping malls As outsider he has started seeing the fundamental of this company is deteriorating and business is slowing down and going nowhere.
10th month: Mar 2018 1 outlet closed shop and left with 13 outlets in 8 shopping malls
11th month: Apr 2018 1 outlet closed shop and left with 12 outlets in 8 shopping malls 11th month: Apr 2018 After renovation; the same owner re-opened with new branding and back with 13 outlets in 8 shopping malls 12th month: May 2018 The owner acquired three outlets by one of the famous bak tu teh chains ; two in the same shopping malls and one outlet in another mall in Orchard and add the 4th outlet with new brand in the same mall. Now 17 outlets in 9 shopping malls. All of the sudden; this fundamental turned around and looking good. The weekly revenue from the three bak tu teh easily double the previous three closed outlets. Has the owner over paid for the four outlets? As outsider; it is not possible to know. Right? The moral of story? As outsiders how far into the future can we as retail investors analyze company's business/fundamental based on publicly disclosed materials and quarterly financial reports.
Most of us are inspired by life stories of outliers; but most of us will not be able to move into outliers segment no matters how hard we can try! Bell curve! Outliers have extraordinary or exceptional talents AND/OR they have spent extraordinary or exceptional time and effort to reach that level. Most of us don't! Aim for the Median if we are below the median and it is achievable. When we are above the median; give ourselves thumb up since we have done well!
According to one of the 3 authors of the study, Colin McKenzie, professor at Keio University, the level of intellectual stimulation could depend on working hours. Even though work is a double-edged sword that stimulates brain activity, working more than forty hours per week can result in stress and fatigue that may have a detrimental impact on cognitive functions.
Read? Business Leverages And Personal Leverages. It is world between personal bankruptcy and private limited/limited company bankruptcy! Don't anyhow hor! Personal bankruptcy may drag in the whole family together to suffer! What do we know about Donald Trump's four bankruptcies? Trump describes these bankruptcies as if no one was hurt in the process, except high rollers and sharks. He says that he has started hundreds of companies, but only used bankruptcy proceedings four times
He and his family were never hurt by any of these four bankruptcies!
Now Uncle8888 becomes low income earner who doesn't have to pay any tax! This Sep 2018 he will unlock his SRS and draws out $12K per year over the next few years to avoid paying any tax. That is the primary objective of SRS! Tax deduction! SRS will be his source of fixed income upon 62 and then RA upon 65.
$12K from SRS and $24K from CPF OA & SA
Fixed income for 2019 will be $36K! He also into assets allocation! Hee hee!
From 2000 to 2003 - two crises Sep 11 WTC Attack in 2001 and SARS in 2003 Uncle8888 came to the stock market at the wrong market timing with his large war chest i.e. 23 years of saving including CPFIS at age of 44. STI was at its peak in Jan 2000 and then crashed towards its low in Sep 2001. The market recovered in 2002 and then crashed again in 2003 due to SARS.
Those days from Jan 2000 to 2003; he didn't have ill or bad feeling on paper losses as he was in mindset of deploying his rotting cash in his war chest into the stock market to create wealth. In his mind; he was deploying cash and not losing money!
But from 2007 to 2009; his feeling of falling market and paper losses was totally different. Towards end 2008; he has developed that ill feeling of losing money in the stock market. WTF and bang his head! Why like that! Now he understands his own psychology of losses! Losing money and deploying cash is not the same! Why he must have larger war chest for the next market crash?
Read? Mind Flip (5) Yes. This book Rich Dad. Poor Dad has flipped his mind into pursuing financial independence and get out of rat race! No parroting Robert into property investment. That is how Robert got rich; but Uncle8888 believe in himself and invest as Panda or Koala in local stock market. SGX only. Only local stocks! No Gold or Silver. Of course; no bitcoins! So risky since no assets diversification!
This Rule : Never invest money that you can't afford to lose or willing to lose! Sound investment advice??? Hmm ....
What if you have already lost what you can afford or willing to lose? Do you have adequate capital to recover from these losses? How about changing to this Rule? Never invest money that you can't afford to lose or willing to lose until you have adequate war chest to recover. We need a few potential big winners to recover. Do you have those capital to find these few winners after losing?
In his annual letter to shareholders in February, Buffett warned that the new reporting rule would produce some "truly wild and capricious swings." He also noted that "gyrations of that magnitude will swamp the truly important numbers that describe our performance." In a statement accompanying today's earnings report, Buffett, the firm's chairman and CEO, urged investors to focus on Berkshire's operating businesses and not earnings results based on fluctuations in its nearly $173 billion stock portfolio. He says the stock portfolio can see fluctuations of up to $10 billion in any given quarter.
Focus on operating business i.e operating income and not volatility in investment value. Warren Buffer is business owner investor while most of us are retail investor as either employee or self-employed owning a job. Business owner can focus on operating income or business and can ignore paper losses without feeling very bad!
How about us?
Business owners: Business operating income and investment portfolio Job owners: Earned income and investment portfolio
Can we really focus on earned income after tax and ignore paper losses in our investment portfolio? Inject monthly capital into our investment portfolio while sitting on large paper losses and receiving dividends as Panadols and still feeling great as investor? Focus on earned income and don't bother with paper losses due to market volality Wah! Steady man!
Because of accounting rule changes, however, the conglomerate recorded a first quarter loss of $1.1 billion, compared to net income of $4 billion in last year's first quarter The accounting changes meant Berkshire had to write down the value of its investment portfolio by $6.3 billion in the first quarter Berkshire Hathaway reported a 48.7 percent first quarter gain in operating earnings, to $5.3 billion, as its insurance underwriting business swung back into the green and railroads, utility and other businesses posted gains. Because of accounting rule changes that apply to its $170 billion stock portfolio, however, the conglomerate recorded a first quarter loss of $1.1 billion compared to net income of $4 billion in last year's first quarter. Berkshire marked down the value of those investments nearly $6.3 billion. Warren Buffett had already warned shareholders in his annual letter about the accounting changes, saying the new rule could "produce some truly wild and capricious swings" in the value of the stock portfolio that would "swamp the truly important numbers that describe our operating performance."
Buffett, who is preparing to lead the company's annual shareholder meeting later on Saturday morning, told CNBC on Friday the company acquired another 75 million shares of Apple during the first quarter, adding to its already large holdings. It also exited its remaining holdings of IBM.
” If you have a worry problem, do these three things: 1. Ask yourself: “What is the worst that can possibly happen?” 2. Prepare to accept it if you have to. 3. Then calmly proceed to improve on the worst.” (Carnegie 49) Is having a large war chest a serious drag on our investment portfolio performance? Look left. Look right. Look centre. Left, right, and centre. Uncle888 can't really figure out how serious is rotting cash affecting his investment portfolio performance? His investment performance is largely determined by Mr. Market at Point X over any measuring period. Market timing is important???
Of course. We can! There are quite a number of trainers in Singapore can train you in value investing and then you on your way to become nano value investor like Warren Buffet. Since Jan 2000 when Uncle8888 became interested and serious in long -term investing and short-term trading; he has been following financial news day and nights and definitely news on Warren Buffet is a must read. One thing for sure on Warren Buffet that catches his eyes! Warren Buffet can talk UP the market and talk DOWN the market! You can meh? What did you read on Warren Buffet on his latest talk on his investment?
Title : Table 19A. Average and Median Monthly Household Income from Work Per Household Member (Excluding Employer CPF Contributions) Among Resident and Resident Employed Households, 2000 - 2017
CW8888: More than $2K per month per household member should be comfortable enough to live in Singapore. But, we still need assets growth to generate future cash flow to meet years of inflation down the F.I. road. This may be the hardest part for those seeking assets growth while spending on portfolio income generated by current assets.
Bruce3 May 2018 at 10:48:00 GMT+8 Uncle8888, 7.3% over 18years, HUAT! from the info i have: a) STI started Jan 2000 at 2231, 3573@2018/04/16, CAGR=2.6% (this however w/o dividend contribution, if assume there is so-called 'pseudo' 3% yield avg, CAGR is 5.6%) Uncle8888's skill not bad, beat index a lot. b) STI ETF started in 2002 April(when STI stood at 1730), based on its website info: till 2018/04/12, 10y, 4.36%, since inception(11 Apr 2002) 16yr,7.52%(this includes dividend contribution) it shows it is difficult to beat ETF fund, even though it is not time horizon exactly aligned comparison. How to achieve 16 yr,7.52% (this includes dividend contribution) in STI ETF? This performance of 16 yrs, 7.52% is achieved by lump sum investing at its inception or market timing at Point X. For real investing on the ground by retail investors over market cycles since 2002 by buying high and selling low or buying low and selling high over the measuring period; it is most unlikely to be able to achieve 7.52%. Lump sum investing at the right buy price and add on accumulation of good yield over the measuring period will achieve superior return.
These are the wise words from Peter Lynch ... All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners, and the pluses from those will overwhelm the minuses from the stocks that don’t work out. - Peter Lynch
Total no of different stocks still holding or already sold : 56
STI closed at 3,614. If you don't have any significant positions in DBS, OCC and UOB. There is nothing to be happy! Super sianz if you have sold way too early. Bang head for cutting losses during GFC! The DBS, OCBC and UOB together is 42% of STI!
How many doing active contra trading realise that contra trading which in reality is leveraging to power up/down your trading income? You keep doing more and show your friendly brokers your numbers; soon your brokers will pay attention and power you up with more. You leverage more and earn big man! Read? Contra Trading. Damn Shiok!!! (2)
You made money in days i.e. T+3. Uncle8888's friendly broker was so good to him and power up him with more with T+5, commission rate of 0.22%, Buy Limit @ $300K and Sell Limit @ $400K. Shiok man! What did he truly learn about leveraging? We know that leverage is a double edged sword. To use this double edged sword; we must have the skill to slaughter those monsters in the market by cutting or swinging in both ways. If you only know how to cut or swing in one way with a double edged sword; it is matter of time you may lose back some, all or more when the opposite side of the double edge sword hit back hard at you. Get the moral of the story? It is not difficult to convince ourselves that we can make money from the market. Our outcome will testify that we can and we dare to do it more! We are not stupid! But, Mr Market not stupid too!
How we view our investment portfolio's dividend income will shape our approach tofill up orrefillthis glass to full state?
When we view the current state of our investment glass as half empty; and that could mean we had previously held a full glass and now we see it as half emptyi.e. we had went from empty glass to full glass and now at half empty glass. We knew that previously we have the resources and means to fill up this glass to full state; we may still have those resources and means on hand to refill the half empty glass to full glass. Do we still need to consider additional resources and mean e.g. leveraging to refill this glass to full state since we have previously done it before with those resources and means?
It may not be the same view as someone is seeing the glass as half full as he or she may have come from empty glass to half-full glass and want to fill up this glass quickly. They have to consider additional resources and mean to help them to power up. One way is to leveraging!
From Jan 2000 to 2007; Uncle8888 has been viewing his investment glass as half empty even though it was nearly full and kept chasing to fill it up. Read? My War Room (7) - The Last Mile
But; now he is viewing his glass as half empty and cautiously looking to refill it to full glass! When we see our investment glass as half empty; we will be happy if the glass doesn't go empty! Right?
This is Mind part of 3M's - Method, Mind and Money Management!
Most of us will never win this Rat Race! It is just common sense! In personal investing; we run our own race. It is like running a Marathon! Once; we have finished the marathon race; we will be happy as we have done it at our own time and effort!
Read? The Power Of Dividend 2009 to 2018 and still waiting for market timing! Still not keen on income investing on S-REITs. An issue of hindsight vision or self-trap by data points. Hmm ... Lowest average yield is 5.7%
Son : All this while you have neglected me. Have you really care about me? Concern me? I hardly see you. You keep working day and night! You have no time for me! He has a Wake Up call from his son. This ex-colleague has reached 55 on that year and over the next few months; he worked out his number that he has enough money from his CPF OA, Insurance endowment and saving to retire early. --------------- We can speculate that he could have been for a long time thinking that he has already spent "quality" time with his only child until he got "slapped" in his face by his son!
Uncle8888 clearly knew it and in no illusion and planned decades ahead of its time and could even announce his Goal sooner than expected when he has better grip of ETA to his retirement. One of his peers who was very motivated and cheong worker who after re-org became his last ex boss before his retirement on Sep 2016. He bought Uncle8888 lunch and requested him to delay his decision to retire early. Boss: I won't dare to ask you to delay your retirement. Can you work till Dec so I can have more time to manage the transition? CW: Last year I have given you and the team one year advance notice. Do you still remember, 10 years ago I have already tell every body that I will work up to 60? CW: Dec is not possible as I am planning for my Taiwan for Nov/Dec period. Okay, I can work till end Sep. If any work related issues that were not cleared and needed my help I came back to office to help. Anyway, I should be very free. Uncle8888 did went back on two occasions to help to advise on some outstanding issues.
"Somehow; one day on 15 may 2017; he received an offer for 8 HWW (Hours Work Week). A simple job with plenty of walking exercise on every Mondays and Thursday (any time from 11 AM to 6 PM to complete this simple job task. Uncle8888 takes less than 4 hours to complete each task with his power walk)" In reality, nothing is safe from being taken away! Started this 8 HWW (Hours Work Week) last June 2017; and in less than one year in this job; he realized tough competition in F&B space in retail malls. Three outlets have closed shop and existing space taken over by other brands under different owners. Two outlets did re-branding under the same owner. One of the two did second re-branding after three months as the previous re-branding didn't survive. From 16 outlets to 13 outlets; of course he suffered 19% pay cut in less than one year! LOL!
In reality, nothing is safe from being taken away!
When a married man turned from dual household income into single household income; his wife calls herself either housewife or homemaker. But, when a married woman turned from dual household income into single household income; her husband doesn't calls himself either househusband or homemaker. He called himself early retiree or F.I.R.E! Modern married women; many of them are earning much higher income than their spouse. Who should be the homemaker when one of them decide to retire early?
There is no universal experience or outcome in implementing stop loss, cut loss and trailing stop; we experienced them in our own way. No absolutely right or wrong! It is your own outcome over market cycles that matters! Banks were the faulty stocks during GFC; but now they are breaking new historical records! DBS hit new historical high at $29.95 Theoretical high after XR in 2007 was $22.25 Read? DBS : Sold @ $19.38 (Re-presenting it in new format)
Round 21: ROC +20.4%, 449 days, B $16.01 S $19.38 Round 20: ROC +11.3%, 490 days, B $16.98 S $19.03 Round 19: ROC +178%, 4,385 days, B $7.53 S $21.04 Round 18: ROC +144.7%, 2,174 days, B $8.27 S $20.31 Round 17: ROC - 31.1%, 232 days, B $24.20 S $16.80 Round 16: ROC - 21.6%, 222 days, B $23.20 S $18.32 Round 15: ROC - 18.1%, 186 days, B $22.90 S $18.88 Round 14: ROC - 9.2%, 70 days, B $21.00 S $19.20 Round 13: ROC +9%, 65 days, B $20.50 S $22.50 Round 12: ROC +10.6%, 8 days, B $20.50 S $22.60
Read? Even millionaires have cost worries if they live to a 100 CW8888 : Cham liao for those planning F.I.R.E at 30s or 40s! CLOSE to half of Singapore's millionaires expect to live to 100, and this is driving significant changes to their spending, investing and legacy behaviour, a study by UBS has found. UBS Investor Watch Research has found that 46 per cent of those polled in Singapore expect to live to 100, compared to 53 per cent globally. The expectation of a long life is creating anxiety, however, as 42 per cent worry that their wealth will not support them till age 100. Of these, 66 per cent worry about the rising costs of healthcare, and 63 per cent worry about whether they can afford their current lifestyle in retirement. In Asia, 45 per cent worry about their wealth lasting till 100, compared to 21 per cent in Europe. Investment behaviour is expected to shift as 45 per cent plan to adjust their long term financial plans and 46 per cent their spending patterns. The research surveyed 5,000 millionaires in 10 markets, with at least US$1 million in investable assets (excluding property). The markets included Germany, Hong Kong, the US and UAE. In Singapore, 400 individuals were polled between December 2017 and April 2018.
Singapore's average life expectancy, based on World Health Organisation data last year, was 83.1 years, compared to 83.4 in Switzerland and 83.7 years in Japan. Hartmut Issel, UBS head of Asia Pacific equities and credit (chief investment office), said: "It it heartening to note that many Singaporeans already have a financial plan in place, and are adjusting their investment portfolios in preparation for a longer life span.'' The silver lining is that almost 80 per cent have a financial plan in place. "If 80 per cent see the need to plan for the long term, it tells us that 20 per cent don't hold that view strongly. We need to reach that 20 per cent as well to have a discussion on life expectancy. You need to think about how you invest and put a plan in place.'' Singaporean millionaires believe being healthy is the top priority: 83 per cent worry that their health will deteriorate over the next 10 years and 92 per cent say investing in their health is more important than growing their wealth. The average wealthy Singaporean would sacrifice around a third of their wealth today if that could guarantee another 10 years of healthy life. The majority (85 per cent) believe that activity and work have positive effects on health. In fact 68 per cent expect to work longer than the traditional retirement age to maintain their lifestyle. On legacy planning, 51 per cent plan to give more away while they are still alive. Over half plan to give more to their grandchildren than their children, believing that it will be more useful at their stage of life.
On investments, Singapore's high net worth individuals picked healthcare as their top choice for long term investment opportunities. Equities and real estate were also favoured, but so was cash, which was picked by 40 per cent of respondents. In Asia cash was favoured by 52 per cent.
No longer driven by the need to put food on the table, millennials are lured by the ability to make a "difference"
How about investing without driven by the need to put food on the table from their investment portfolio? What will be your investing strategies to make a "difference"? To make a "difference"; what is the opportunity cost?
Assuming 5% dividend yield per year on yearly accumulated war chest not invested since 2012; the opportunity cost to break even to cover those missing dividends from 2012 to 2022 is about 50% ROC on current war chest. 50% is not that scary!
I am 61 yrs old uncle living in HDB heartland who has achieved financial independence @ 56 and retired @ 60 from full-time job as employee.
Single household income since 1995 with three children. Eldest son and daughter are now working and youngest son still in his 2nd year uni in SUTD.
I have been doing long-term investing and short-term trading in Singapore stock market only since Jan 2000 so I am that Panda or Koala in the investment world; but I am still surviving well in the wild.
I am now executing my Three Taps solution model to maintain sustainable retirement income for life till 2038.
Last updated: 3 Sep 2017
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