As from April 2013 my Journey in Investing is to create Retirement Income for Life till 80 years old for two over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

Welcome to Ministry of Wealth!

This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

It is here where I share with you how I did it! FREE Education in stock market wisdom.

Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down



Important Notice and Attention: If you are looking for such ideas; here is the wrong blog to visit.

Value Investing
Dividend/Income Investing
Technical Analysis and Charting
Stock Tips

Monday, 31 January 2011

NOL posts higher average revenue per FEU

SINGAPORE: Mainboard-listed container shipper Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) said its average revenue per 40-foot equivalent unit (FEU) container has risen.


In a filing on Monday to the Singapore Exchange, NOL said revenue for the period from November 13 to December 31 rose 21 per cent from a year earlier to US$2,647.

The firm said the higher average revenue per FEU was due to improved freight rates in the major trade lanes.

Its shipping volume for the same period gained 26 per cent from a year earlier.

NOL said the improvement in volume was mainly due to higher volumes carried on the Intra-Asia and Asia-Europe trade lanes.

Meanwhile for the full year of 2010, average revenue per FEU container is up 22 per cent to US$2,787.

At the same time, volume has also grown by nearly a quarter.

-CNA/wk

Olam to buy 2 UK food firms for US$50m

SINGAPORE - Commodity firm Olam said it plans to acquire two UKconfectionary fats firms for about US$50 million. This will helpthe firm strenghten its supply chain in the chocolate industry,it said.

The two UK companies are Britannia Food Ingredients Holdings Ltd and Britannia Storage and Distribution Ltd. -- REUTERS

Olam to buy 2 UK food firms for US$50m

SINGAPORE - Commodity firm Olam said it plans to acquire two UKconfectionary fats firms for about US$50 million. This will helpthe firm strenghten its supply chain in the chocolate industry,it said.

The two UK companies are Britannia Food Ingredients Holdings Ltd and Britannia Storage and Distribution Ltd. -- REUTERS

Compound Interest is not the same as Compound Returns (3)

Read? Compound Interest is not the same as Compound Returns (2)

Read? 3M's - Inside Investor's Mind

Optimism Bias: Believing that you are above average and that misfortunes are more likely to befall others

Seriously, how many average retail investors fully understand the big difference between 2.6% Compound Interests payable on HDB housing loan and Compound Returns on stock investment.

To be able to beat that 2.6% Compound Interests payable on HDB housing loan with Compound Returns on stock investment will require you to stay fully re-invested most of the time across several stock market cycles of bulls and bears. This low figure of 2.6% may look relatively small enough and it may make you to believe it is quite easy to beat it, Right?

Sunday, 30 January 2011

Fundamental or Technical Analysis? (3)

"Much of technical analysis is magical mumbo-jumbo that people think will tell them where the markets going. And it never will. It's just a bunch of nonsense. Unfortunately, I've also participated in it" - Larry Williams


Read? Does Shorting always win in a bear market?

Last time, I  used to follow that honest Guru's cbox and blog everyday without fail. I was trying to learn from him as much as possible on TA since he is our local well-known full-time Chief Trainer and Chief Strategist in his School of Whatsoever Kung Fu Charting. He has even developed new indicators and modify/adapt some existing indicators to perform better in the current market environment.

Actually, I should thank him for helping me to STOP fooling myself in searching of better TA after seeing him clowning LIVE in front of my eyes in his blog with his failed trades.

I last heard he doesn't blog his trades anymore and his blog is dead!

Although I have stopped searching for better TA; I still do some simple TA for entries and exits so that I don't blame myself for making stupid mistakes when I failed.

Reading personal finance and investment books?

Just for Laugh ...

New comers finding these books on personal finance and investment books boring (difficult?) to read and old timers may think that they have read enough of them and there is nothing much to gain from reading more.

All these books are more or less the same? You think so?

Investing Made Simple by Uncle8888 (4)

Read? Investing Made Simple by Uncle8888 (3)

How did Uncle8888 come into the stock market?

During Uncle8888 time, the easiest way to invest in stocks was through IPOs. There were no shortages of them. Sometime it could be more than one IPO in a month. This was how Uncle8888 got started in the stock market.

To tikam for IPOs, he would check with his colleagues. If there were more colleagues interested in them, he would try for them too. If Uncle8888 was lucky to kena these IPOs; he would try to sell them a few days later for quick profits. But, if Uncle8888 got stuck with his IPOs; he quickly consoled himself that he was a LONG-TERM INVESTOR to collect passive income and not to worry.


Probably, that was the general behaviour of some retail investors who were happy to make some coffee money here and there.

BTW, are you not behaving the same way as Uncle8888 in his old days for the recent IPOs?

Has the behaviour of some retail investors doing IPOs changed nowadays?

No! Absolutely not as Uncle8888 recalled some people were congratulating each other over their quick IPO profits. But, if unfortunately when they got stuck in their IPOs, overnight they quickly changed their minds to become long-term passive income investors.

Uncle8888 then realized that there are few levels of seniority in retail investors in the stock market. All his sifus (a nicer word for "Lao Jiao" - in his office, these newbies or juniors called him sifu instead of calling him "Lao Jiao") that he knew of are not interested in "tikam" for IPOs. May be these "Lao Jiao" are greedier to make more money or they are just defending their reputation not to be seen by their brokers down-grading themselves to ONE LOTTER clients. LOL!

Uncle8888 thinks that "Tikam" for IPOs may be a personal indicator for you to watch - how successful or confidence with your investing?  The day when you realize you no longer tikam for IPOs anymore, you may have unknowingly progressed yourself to the level of "Lao Jiao" in the stock market.  You may wish to congratulate yourself on your promotion since you realize it now! Ha Ha.

To be continued ....

Saturday, 29 January 2011

After 55

Soon I will be working for less!


Investing Made Simple by Uncle8888 (3)

Read? Investing Made Simple by Uncle8888 (2)

You may need to fully understand what are the stock market risks. If you don't, you may end up as lunches for the market sharks.

Read? Understanding Stock Market Risks - Updated

1. Price Volatility Risk
2. Companies Risk
3. Currency Risk
4. Lack of Knowledge and Skills
5. No Time for Research & Monitoring
6. Liquidity Risk
7. Dilution Risk
8. Financial Fraud Risk

For each of these risks, how did you specifically address and mitigate them?

DBS

The truths behind the ideas of making money in the stock market.

Read? Major STI market cycles - Horrible Bears and Beautiful Bulls!

Read? Harsh lessons from 1997/98 and 2007/08 stock crisis

Read? I did it my way – Singapore Man of Leisure

Personally, I have witnessed my father-in-law and brothers-in-law all badly burnt in CLOB saga. How could I not fear the stock market? Actually, my spouse forbid me from the stock market and I did it like keeping mistresses outside. It has to be top secret or else the hell will break lose. LOL!

But I also heard from three “Lao Jiao colleagues' mouth different stories:

  1. One day, this "Lao Jiao" hearing us debating on the "truth" of making lots of money from the stock market. I think he must be "buay tahan" and told us off. He said: " My house and everything in it are paid by the stock market."
  2. Another "Lao Jiao" told us his daughter's overseas university education in Australia was fully funded by the stock market.
  3. One day, the last "Lao Jiao" whom we knew he was making good money from stock market casually remarked this: "If you don't want to make money from stock market, you are stupid!"
I believe the three "Lao Jiao" may have encountered their own failures but finally they have found their ways and have huge success in the stock market. I still believe that the stock market is only for the truly committed players in the long run or else you will become lunches for the predators.

Do you have any true stories of success and failure in the stock market to share?

Reading and Mind Flip (2)

Read? Reading and Mind Flip
 
I saw this man in 30-40s? in the MRT train reading this book: "Rich Dad Poor Dad".  I was smiling to myself. Will he be another Createwealth8888 in the making? I hope he has a mind flip after reading or it is just another reading book for him like many others before him and nothing really happen out of it.
 
Read? Saving and Investing My Money : Singapore Man of Leisure
 
"It was also the year I picked up this book called “Rich Dad, Poor Dad”. Many self-help books I’ve read; but this one ranks at the top – you just have to strip out the marketing hype and the multi-level marketing nonsense." - Singapore Man of Leisure


If you have read it and still don't get it. May be it is time you sit down with Uncle8888 for Q&A session with Bread and Coffee. Low Cost and High Returns. LOL!

Friday, 28 January 2011

US growth hits highest level in five years

WASHINGTON - The US economy grew its fastest clip in five years in 2010, according to Commerce Department figures that confirmed the country had bounced back from recession.


Growth hit 2.9 percent in 2010, well up from the 2.6 percent contraction seen in 2009.

- AFP /ls

Biosensors' Q3 net profit up, sees higher FY2011 profit

By ANGELA TAN


Biosensors International Group, Ltd reported on Friday that its net profit for the fiscal third quarter ended December 31, 2010 was US$13.34 million, compared to US$12.38 million a year ago.

Total product sales in the third quarter were US$37.86 million, up a 27 per cent from a year ago due to the continued growth in the sales of the BioMatrix. family of drug-eluting stents.

It management expects product revenues for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2011to range between US$135 million and US$145 million.

It also believes its goal of increased profitability over FY10 on an overall basis will be achieved in FY11.

---------------------------------------

Createwealth8888:
 
Will biosensor become the 5th or 6th multi-bagger in the next few years?
 
 

Thursday, 27 January 2011

Strong herd instinct among analysts

By WONG WEI KONG


WITH the reporting season now underway in earnest, consensus estimates will increasingly come into focus. Companies will be measured against the consensus forecasts made by analysts, and their shares will be bought or sold based on the extent to which they have exceeded or fallen short of those expectations.

Such market behaviour, while firmly established, hinges on a big assumption. It presumes that each analyst independently arrives at a forecast based on individual conviction, and considers the average of these forecasts as the collective representation of a group of independent opinions.

That's the theory; in practice, analysts are often accused of 'herding', or going with what seems to be the majority view. If so, the value of the consensus estimate will be diluted, because this will not then be a representation of independent opinions but rather an outcome shaped by other factors, such as analysts who issue more frequent reports, or reports issued by the bigger and more influential investment banks or broking houses.

Corroborating studies

But, first, is it fair to say that analysts tend to herd? There is, in fact, an established body of work on this subject.

One such recent study is Analysts' Herding Propensity: Theory and Evidence from Earnings Forecasts, prepared by Murugappa Krishnan (Yeshiva University), Steve C Lim (Texas Christian University) and Ping Zhou (Lehman Brothers).

While prior studies focus on herding at the forecast level, the trio also focused on herding at the analyst level (that is, if an analyst is likely to herd). The study used 14 years of IBES annual earnings forecast data and put it through an empirical model which looked at actual earnings announcements, analysts' earnings forecasts, analysts' true posterior beliefs (based on all available private and public information available), analysts' forecast bias (choice variable of the analysts), and prior consensus (function of preceding analysts' forecasts).

'We find that herd behaviour is pervasive at both the aggregate and the analyst levels. At the aggregate level, yearly estimates of herding propensity suggest that the result is not due to any particular year . . . At the analyst level, we find that roughly 75 per cent of the analysts in our sample tend to herd,' the study concluded.

It went on to say: 'Our results suggest that investors and researchers should exercise caution when using analysts' earnings forecasts as proxies for the market's expectations. This observed stability in the degree of herding propensity means that investors and market participants could also benefit potentially by adjusting for herding.'

Other studies also arrived at similar conclusions. Herding Among Security Analysts, by Ivo Welch of the School of Management at Yale University, found that 'the buy or sell recommendations of security analysts have a significant positive influence on the recommendations of the next two analysts'.

In Do Analysts Herd? An Analysis of Recommendations and Market Reactions, by Narasimhan Jegadeesh (Goizueta Business School, Emory University, Atlanta) and Woojin Kim (School of Public Policy and Management, Seoul), the authors concluded: 'Our empirical results support the herding hypothesis . . . We find that analysts from larger brokerages and analysts following stocks with smaller dispersion across recommendations are more likely to herd.'

Over-optimistic

In Experts' Earning Forecasts: Bias, Herding and Gossamer Information, Olivier Guedj and Jean-Philippe Bouchaud from Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management, Paris, studied the statistics of earning forecasts of US, EU, UK and Japanese stocks during the period 1987-2004. 'We confirm, on this large data set, that financial analysts are on average over-optimistic and show a pronounced herding behaviour,' they said.

One caveat for Singapore investors is that these studies are based mostly on overseas market data. However, the herding instinct, like investor and market behaviour in general, is likely to cut across cultures. It may even be possible to argue that in markets with a relatively small analyst community, the propensity to herd is even stronger.

So it comes down to this: the consensus estimate, while still useful as a general indicator of the forecasts analysts are publishing, should not be viewed as the definitive benchmark of earnings performance. And it may be worthwhile for investors to pay more attention to the outliers, and the track record of individual analysts.

Let us check every quarter whether is herd correct or not? Collective wisdom of analysts

CapitaLand acquires Marine Point in the popular Marine Parade residential neighbourhood for redevelopment

Latest acquisition brings pipeline to over 2,600 homes in Singapore


Singapore, 27 January 2011 – CapitaLand has signed a Sale and Purchase agreement to acquire Marine Point for a consideration of S$100.68 million through a collective sale. Inclusive of an estimated development charge of S$12.8 million, the total acquisition cost works out to S$1,056 per square foot per plot ratio. CapitaLand plans to redevelop the site into a distinctive condominium with 150 units, comprising one-bedroom plus study and two-bedroom apartments.

This will bring CapitaLand's pipeline of homes in Singapore to a total of over 2,600 units.

Located along Marine Parade Road, Marine Point sits on a 4,755-square-metre (51,185 square feet) freehold site with a maximum gross floor area of 9,986 square metres (107,488 square feet).

There are 32 apartments in the existing development. The completion of the transaction, expected to take place in the third quarter of 2011, is subject to the approval of the Strata Titles Board.

Mr Wong Heang Fine, CEO of CapitaLand Residential Singapore, said: “The Marine Point site will be a valuable addition to our development portfolio. The freehold site enjoys a popular District 15 address, and is within close proximity to East Coast Park, good schools and amenities.

For the new development, we will be maximising its height to approximately 19 storeys. This will give the majority of the apartments a good view of the surrounding skyline and the sea. We plan to have the new development ready for launch in the first half of 2012. We are confident that we will see strong buyer support from young families as well as professionals who have grown up in the area. We will continue to acquire sites where we can add value, and build well-designed homes for homebuyers.”

The Marine Point site is located along Marine Parade Road, opposite the bustling Marine Parade Town Centre and Parkway Parade shopping mall. Residents will benefit from the conveniences of a host of retail, F&B and entertainment facilities minutes away from the development. It is also within walking distance to East Coast Park, a popular seaside getaway for leisure and water sports.
 
The site is near established schools including the reputable Tao Nan School, CHIJ (Katong) Primary, Tanjong Katong Girls’ School, Ngee Ann Primary School, Victoria School and Victoria Junior College. It offers good connectivity to the rest of Singapore as it is well-served by many bus services, and major roads and expressways such as the East Coast Parkway that leads to the city centre and to Singapore Changi International Airport.

In the eastern part of Singapore, CapitaLand will also have the Bedok Town Centre site ready for launch this year. There will be approximately 500 apartments in the development, which is located above a shopping mall. It will provide a new and dynamic residential and shopping destination in the heart of the Bedok transportation hub, and enjoys direct access to the Bedok MRT station as well as the future bus interchange.

My War Room (7) - The Last Mile

Read? My War Room (6) - The Lost Years

"Sometime we may learn from other people's experiences but at times we may have to re-look at our own experiences and learn from them as well." - Createwealth8888.



Read? Chasing the last $100K (last mile) and may fall hard!
 
I have learnt my lessons on "The Lost Years" and "The Last Mile."
 
I am no longer bolder and greedier in the "new" last mile.
 
I hope not to repeat the Lost Years again by shifting into protective mode and becoming less offensive in the last mile.
 

P.S:
1. I have zero debts and no property. Net worth excludes residential home, CPF SA and Medisave.
2. Portfolio = Capital + Realized P/L + Unrealized P&L
                  = Stocks (at closing price) + Available cash left for investing

Keppel to build two harsh environment jackups worth about US$416 million for Discovery Offshore

Keppel FELS Limited (Keppel FELS) has secured a contract worth about US$416 million from Discovery Offshore S.A. (Discovery Offshore) to construct two harsh environment jackup rigs based on the proprietary KFELS Super A Class design.


The rigs are scheduled for delivery in 1H and 2H 2013 respectively. The construction, marketing and operation of both units will be managed by NASDAQ-listed Hercules Offshore, Inc. (Hercules Offshore), which is a leading global operator of jackup and liftboat assets.

Discovery Offshore has options to order two additional jackup units as part of its contract with Keppel FELS. If exercised, the options for the additional units will bring the total contract value to above US$840 million.

The new KFELS Super A Class brings together winning features of the company's proven jackup rig designs to provide operators with a viable and cost-effective solution for harsh environments and cold climate areas.

Mr Wong Kok Seng, Managing Director of Keppel FELS, said, "The KFELS Super A Class debuts at an opportune time when the industry is looking for newer and higher performance assets, which offer improved safety and better efficiency.

"This North Sea-compliant rig would be able to operate efficiently in virtually all parts of the world outside Norway and the Arctic. Discovery Offshore's acceptance of the KFELS Super A Class design attests to its potential, as well as our ability and commitment to deliver.

"We are confident of completing these rigs to the satisfaction of our customer, and look forward to nurture this partnership with them."

Customised to meet the requirements of Discovery Offshore for high-specification jackups that can be safely deployed in most areas worldwide, the rigs will be capable of operating in water depths of 400 feet and drilling depths of 35,000 feet.

For greater operational safety, the KFELS Super A Class is equipped with the latest pinion overload detection, rack phase difference detection, and brake failure and overload protection devices, thus even meeting the stringent Health, Safety and Environment (HSE) standards of the UK sector in the North Sea.

In addition to having strong drilling capabilities and cantilever load performance, the KFELS Super A Class includes a spacious deck and amenities to accommodate 150 men.

Mr John T. Rynd, President and Chief Executive Officer of Hercules Offshore, said, "These rigs will be among the most capable jackups in the world, and have been designed to meet the exacting requirements of our most demanding customers. With the improving outlook for the offshore drilling industry, we believe that the rig design chosen by Discovery Offshore will be well positioned to take advantage of these positive long-term fundamentals over an extended period of time."

The above contract is not expected to have material impact on the net tangible assets or earnings per share of Keppel Corporation Limited for the current financial year.

Wednesday, 26 January 2011

Chasing the last $100K (last mile) and may fall hard!

Read? The Last $100K to Millionaire Club

When I was chasing the last $100K (last mile) in 2007 I became bolder and  greedier to finish the race in shorter time than expected.


Like many others, we know that we need to get out one day and we like to believe that we know how to get out.

Actually, we may not really know.

This time I have learned the moral of the story of the last $100K and
I will not become bolder and greedier in the last mile.




Tuesday, 25 January 2011

High Dividend Yield Stocks? (9)

Read? High Dividend Yield Stocks? - Part 8

Do you like high dividend yield?

Do you like high dividend yield blue chip more?

Do you believe high dividend yield multi-bagger blue chip is possible?

I am telling you it is not a dream but it is possible and you have to remember it and don't forget to look out for such blue chips at the next Big Bad Bear market.

Here is the truth:

I bought Kep Corp on 18 Sep 2001 after Sep 11 WTC attack and have been holding it since 2001.  It has been oldest and also top holding and top performer so far.

Total Shareholder Return (TSR) is as follows:


Holding one such counter is so rewarding as it has survived Sep11, SARS and Sub-prime crisis - three bear markets!

How about holding another one or more such counters? Super shiok! right?




So don't forget to look out for such blue chips at the next Big Bad Bear market. It is possible!













Kep Corp : FY10 Report Card

  1. Net profit before exceptional items improved 12% to S$1,419 million, compared to FY 2009’s S$1,265 million.
  2. Earnings Per Share of 88.7 cents, up 12% from FY 2009’s 79.4 cents.
  3. ROE remained above 20%.
  4. Economic Value Added before exceptional items increased from S$1,026 million to S$1,035 million.
  5. Total cash dividend increased to 42.0 cents per share, comprising a final dividend of 26.0 cents and an interim dividend of 16.0 cents already paid.
  6. Bonus issue to shareholders of one bonus share for every 10 existing shares.
  7. Cash outflow of S$310 million.
  8. Net cash of 0.02x, compared to 0.14x in 2009.
Example of good fundamental stock looks like: Rising EPS and DPS and ROE > 15%


Dividend Payout ratio = 42/88.7 = 47%


    Monday, 24 January 2011

    KepLand's FY2010 net profit crosses S$1b, plans special dividend

    By ANGELA TAN


    Keppel Land, the property arm of marine conglomerate Keppel Group, reported on Monday net profit for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2010 rose 687 per cent to S$841.01 million, compared to S$106.85 million a year ago.

    This is despite a 6.3 per cent slip in sales for the quarter to S$281.46 million.

    For the full year 2010, net profit grew by 273 per cent to S$1.05 billion, lifted mainly by a S$363.8 million gain from the sale of the Group's one-third interest in Marina Bay Financial Centre Phase 1 as well as higher fair value gain on investment properties.

    Excluding fair value gain on investment properties/impairment, net profit grew to S$640.8 million, up by 145.2 per cent compared to 2009.

    Sales for the year slipped 14.2 per cent to S$792.27 million.

    The company is recommending a distribution of 18 cents per share, comprising a special dividend of 9 cents per share and an ordinary dividend of 9 cents per share. For 2009, it paid a final dividend of 8 cents a share.

    Keppel's KIE to explore more water projects in Tianjin Eco-City

    By ANGELA TAN


    Keppel Integrated Engineering Ltd (KIE) said on Monday that it will exploring joint investment and development of water treatment projects in the Tianjin Eco-City.

    The projects will include a new water recycling plant that will reuse reclaimed wastewater in the Eco-City.

    The joint projects will be explored under a framework agreement with Tianjin Eco-City Investment and Development Company.

    In the second agreement, which is signed with the Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-City Investment and Development Co, Ltd, KIE will lease 3,000 square metres of office, laboratory and workshop space for the Tianjin Eco-City Sustainable Development Innovation Centre.

    Buying China Stocks Often Has 'Worse Odds Than Gambling'

    By: Shaun Rein, CNBC Contributor

    Founder & Managing Director, China Market Research Group

    "As the Chinese get richer," the private equity investor glowed, "this company is going to be the next Google."

    I was sitting in my office in Shanghai, while the investor rattled off about why he loved the company. It had 50 retail outlets and planned to open another 100. Moreover, its website had 10 million monthly hits.

    The executive was ready to invest $50 million but at the last minute one of his partners wanted some due diligence first. This was why he was Skyping me from the U.S.. He had only been to China once, when the CEO of the target firm had wined and dined him, introduced him to some supposedly high-ranking government officials, and showed him a packed outlet.

    Four weeks later, after traveling around the country, my team had only found a grand total of two of the target firm's outlets. At one, there were a couple of security guards sleeping at the front desk and not much else. At the other, an elderly lady sat idly, drinking tea out of a jar. The other 48 outlets? We couldn't find them. Calls to phone numbers went unanswered.

    And those web hits? Not a single consumer we surveyed had ever heard of the store. Not one. Most surprisingly, while we were in the process of due diligence, the site switched from a social media site to a dating site to a portal for soccer fans.

    It was obvious that the CEO of the target company was trying to mislead the private equity firm. He had gamed the system to make it look to Amazon.com's [AMZN 177.42 -4.54 (-2.5%) ]web traffic subsidiary, Alexa, touted that his portal got a lot of web traffic and spruced up an outlet to make it look packed.

    Luckily for my client, he did his homework before committing the $50 million. But not everyone is this lucky. Despite the many horror stories investors run into in China, it still amazes me how little due diligence is actually done by people investing there.

    If it can almost happen to professional private equity firms, it can happen to you. Even though I have been, and continue to be, one of the biggest China bulls for over a decade and a half, I recommend a healthy dose of caution for most everyday investors before buying Chinese stocks. In fact, they might be better off investing in companies like Apple [AAPL 326.72 -5.96 (-1.79%) ] or Yum! Brands [YUM 48.27 -0.37 (-0.76%) ] that make money in China but whose numbers you can trust.

    Unfortunately, fraud is commonplace there and the investment banks, law firms, and accounting firms that should be protecting you and doing due diligence aren't doing their jobs. Why not? Often they just want to get deals done to get their commissions and, frankly, often they are simply not up to the job. I've seen many non-Chinese speaking executives fly into China for a few days to conduct due diligence and get hoodwinked.



    What are some things to keep in mind before investing there?

    First, be very careful of investing in any small-cap Chinese firms that go public in America by doing reverse mergers through which they buy shell companies in the U.S. and inject assets there.

    I would almost categorically stay away from those firms if you are an individual investor.

    Why? Most good Chinese firms do not need to do reverse mergers to raise money. There is plenty of domestic and foreign private equity money in China. It is quite easy for well-run companies to raise money which begs the questions: why do these companies need to do a reverse merger to raise money? How good can a company be if no other Chinese or foreign investors want to put money in?

    Second, many companies go public in the U.S. because they are not profitable and thus are not allowed to go public in China. Companies must be profitable for three full years there before they are allowed to go public on the Shanghai A-share market. Therefore, many Chinese firms going public in the U.S. are doing so simply because they aren't qualified to go public in China.

    Think of recent companies like Youku [YOKU 32.48 0.72 (+2.27%) ], a Chinese Youtube-like site, and Dangdang [DANG 30.35 0.39 (+1.3%) ], an online retailer, that both have billion-dollar market caps. Youku lost about $30 million last year and is forecast to lose more in 2011. Dandang only eked out $2.4 million in profit after eleven years of operations. 80 percent of its revenue comes from selling books that cost less than $3.

    Of course, not all reverse mergers or Chinese firms listed in America are bad. Many, like Baidu [BIDU 105.10 -0.56 (-0.53%) ]or Ctrip [CTRP 43.07 0.27 (+0.63%) ], are very well-run but everyday investors should still be careful. Valuations and volatility are high because hedge funds control large portions of the companies.

    Investing in Chinese firms often has even worse odds than gambling. At least in gambling you know the odds - with many Chinese investments you not only have to deal with business and regulatory risk, but outright fraud.

    You'd be better off taking your money to Macau or Las Vegas for a weekend at the tables.

    China is the greatest growth story of the next decade, and a lot of money will be made there. However, only the cautious investor who does proper due diligence will make fortunes.


    Shaun Rein is the founder and managing director of the China Market Research Group (www.cmrconsulting.com.cn) a strategic market intelligence firm, and is based in Hong Kong. Follow him on Twitter at @shaunrein. He does not own stock in any of the companies mentioned

    Inflation in S'pore continued rise in December

    SINGAPORE: Data released on Monday by the Department of Statistics (DOS) showed that the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 4.6 per cent on-year.


    Higher costs in transport, housing and food led to the price hike.

    DOS said that excluding housing, the consumer price index went up by a lower 4.3 per cent.

    Meanwhile, compared to the previous month, CPI in December rose by 0.2 per cent due to higher costs of transport, food and recreation.

    DOS said the increase more than offset the decline in housing cost.

    It added that excluding housing, the consumer price index was 0.5 per cent higher.

    And for the full year of 2010, the consumer price index rose by 2.8 per cent compared with 2009.

    Excluding housing costs, the consumer price index for 2010 grew by 3.3 per cent.



    -CNA/ac

    Sunday, 23 January 2011

    Singapore Interest Rate since 1988

    Read? Fed Rate up, STI down?

    One of my friends has attended a property investing seminar and the attendees were shown a chart on past years Singapore interest rate and highest rate reached at around 4%. At such low rate property investors  can easily recover the interests payment with rentals.

    Here is the Singapore Interest Rate since 1998.

    The official interest rate is Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (Sibor), or the rate at which banks lend to one another, which tends to track the Fed rate.

    Interestingly, the historical high of 20.00 percent is in January of 1990 and a record low of -0.75 percent is in October of 1993

    So don't assume future interest rate cannot rise higher than 2-3%. See the chart for yourself.


    Keppel to build two jackups for Clearwater worth US$360 million

    Keppel FELS Limited (Keppel FELS) has secured new orders from Clearwater Capital Partners, LLC (Clearwater) to build a pair of premium KFELS B Class jackup rigs at US$360 million.


    The two high specification jackups are scheduled for delivery in 1Q 2013 and 2Q 2013 respectively.

    As part of the agreement, Clearwater has options to build another two similar jackup units with Keppel FELS. If exercised, the options for the additional two rigs will bring the total contract value to above US$730 million.

    Mr Rob Petty, Managing Partner and Co-Founder of Clearwater, said, "Confidence is rapidly returning to the offshore industry and we expect a fundamental recovery of the sector. There is a clear bifurcation in the jackup market with oil companies increasingly focused on new, high specification rigs for their projects. We have followed this market closely and chose Keppel FELS as our long term partner to help us execute our investment plans in the transition of the jackup market from old rigs to safer, more efficient rigs.

    "Keppel FELS is the gold standard for quality, engineering, and building execution in terms of both time and budgets. Our wide ranging due diligence before placing these substantial orders consistently validated the Keppel team to be professional - from the initial discussions through the engineering design and contract placement. We look forward to this same degree of professionalism and precision all the way through to delivery."

    Mr Wong Kok Seng, Managing Director of Keppel FELS, said, "We thank Clearwater for their confidence in Keppel FELS and look forward to nurture a win-win partnership with them.

    "The KFELS B Class design is the industry standard for efficient and high grade performance; to date, 33 such units have been delivered for operations in various parts of the world. I am confident that when completed, the KFELS B Class jackups will provide outstanding value and returns on Clearwater's investment."

    The KFELS B Class jackup design is developed by Keppel's technology arm, Offshore Technology Development. When completed, Clearwater's rigs will be able to operate in water depths of 400 feet, drilling depth of 30,000 feet and accommodate 150 men.

    The new contracts with Clearwater are not expected to have material impact on the net tangible assets or earnings per share of Keppel Corporation Limited for the current financial year.


    Status update on Keppel’s drillship contract with Noble


    Singapore, 22 January 2011 – Keppel Offshore & Marine Ltd’s (“Keppel O&M”) wholly owned subsidiary, Keppel FELS Brasil, and Noble Corporation (Noble) have agreed to terminate the contract of an upgrade to the drillship Noble Muravlenko, that was scheduled to take place in 2013, on mutually acceptable terms.

    Keppel FELS Brasil will receive a full recovery of expenses and committed costs, as well as a reasonable termination fee.

    Mr Chow Yew Yuen, President, Keppel O&M (Americas), said, “We respect Noble’s decision and our partnership with them remains steadfast. We have been compensated for the cancellation and still have two drillship projects with Noble which also intends to award more projects to Keppel. Our yard capacity for 2013 will now allow us to take on more jobs in an improving market.”

    The project was contracted with Noble in December 2009 at US$152 million.

    The above contract termination is not expected to have any material impact on the net tangible assets or earnings per share of Keppel Corporation Limited for the current financial year.

    Investing Made Simple by Uncle8888 (2)

    Read? Investing Made Simple by Uncle8888

    Uncle8888 loves to eat bread.

    If you feel like giving him a treat of coffee and bread, it will be light on your wallet or purse. It is low cost and high value. LOL!

    Although Uncle8888 feels good on eating breads; but he feels more shiok if he can buy more under-valued buns. He feels that under-valued buns offer better Margin of Shiokness.

    How did Uncle8888 buy his under-valued buns?

    He has Simple plan to buy under-valued buns without doing much analysis and taking too much time.



    Uncle8888's favourite buns will cost him to pay anything from $1.50 to $3.50. Does he know which buns are under-valued? Obviously not. As a simple uncle living in HDB heartland he knows little about bread making and costs of ingredients.

    But, he did notice that the  lowest price bun is not the best selling item and many customers are still buying the highest price bun. 

    So is the lowest price bun under-valued because it is cheapest among all buns or the highest price bun is over-valued?

    It is far too difficult for him to really know which buns are really under-valued; but he has a simple plan. He is quite sure that will buy under-valued buns. He waits for 9 PM.

    At 9 PM, the bakery shop assistant puts a sign stating "$1.20 for all buns".

    Without any doubts, he knows that all buns sold after 9 PM are under-valued; but it is matter of whether he can still get his favourite buns and enjoys higher Margin of Shiokness.

    The moral of the story: It is simple to buy under-valued STI blue chips but it can only happen during certain times of the stock market conditions.

    So when can you buy under-valued blue chips?

    Well, it all depends who are you? What kind of shoppers are you and how often you regret missing sales and beating up your heart.
    1. Do you love bargain-hunting? When STI pullbacks up to -10%, it is good time for bargain hunters like you.
    2. Do you love discount coupons/promotional vouchers? When STI downs by -20%, it is good time for discount coupons cutters and discount vouchers lovers like you.
    3. Do you love Robinson Sales? When STI downs -30%, it is good time for Robinson's royal customers to hunt for their favourites in an exclusive shopping days.
    4. Do you love Great Singapore Sales? When STI downs -40%, it is good time for happy shoppers. Wow, so many things to buy on cheap hor.
    5. Do you love Singapore Closing Down Sales? When STI downs -50%, everything must go. Desperate selling!
    Uncle8888 asks:
    1. Do you have the patience to wait?
    2. What is your buying habit? 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5?
    3. Have you regretted of missing out the previous sales?
    Once you know your buying habits and your regrets; it will become simple for you to buy; but Uncle8888 never say easy hor!

    How does Uncle8888 buy?

    If you have reading this blog since 2007, you may have noticed Uncle8888 loves to buy slowly from Bargain-hunting to Singapore Closing Down Sales.

    Saturday, 22 January 2011

    Measure, Measure, Measure (4) - Revist

    Singapore Stock Picker said... I did try it. But your example did not show what happens when you sell shares. All three only show, when you add capital. I tried to google for the answer to no avail too...

    If anyone else has problem you may "google" Uncle8888 for help. LOL

    XIRR is a tool to track ROC and it is not a tool to track portfolio. For portfolio tracking, you may need to use a separate worksheet to track it. Suggested sample is as follows:



    and then you link "Portfolio Value at Closing Price" back to "Portfolio Value" in XIRR.


    Read? Measure, Measure, Measure (3)

    I realize that some of you may have problem using CAGR to measure your performance as you may periodically add more capitals into your portfolio.

    In this case, you may want to use Microsoft Excel function: XIRR to calculate and return the internal rate of return of an investment. IRR (Internal Rate of Return) is quite close to CAGR as an alternate mean of measuring performance.

    I have provided three examples on how to use XIRR when you add more capitals as follows:



    Portfolio Value = Current Value of all Stocks at last market closing price + Remaining Cash left for investing





                           


















    Investing Made Simple by Uncle8888

    First thing first, Simple is not Easy!

    Uncle8888 defines "Simple" as follows:

    "You don't need to spend hours and hours of your time in analyzing the company upside down and inside out; and no need to take your annual leave to attend AGMs unless you want to have free meals." Once you get a handle over Investing, it is just analyzing less and investing more. 

    Investing is like growing your Money Tree!
    You ride on the Bull with multi-baggers to do it!

    That is the reason why I say Simple is not Easy as finding potential multi-baggers is not easy.


    Why Uncle8888 likes STI blue chip counters and especially with Ah Gong inside them?
    

    When the missiles are coming ...


    You bet which ship below is likely to be the last ship to sink under missiles attack?

    Ship A


    Ship B

    Ship C


    I bet on Ship A - The giant aircraft carrier. Did you bet on Ship C?

    The moral of the story is STI blue chip counters with Ah Gong inside are Ship A. When they are hit by missiles they are less likely to sink faster than other ships.

    Why STI blue chip counters?

    They are blue chips because they are the top 30 companies of the SGX Mainboard universe, ranked by full market capitalisation, that pass the relevant investability screens.

    The current blue chip counters in the Index is  reviewed semi-annually in March and September to ensure that they don't lose their "blue". If stronger blues are found outside the Index, then the weakest blues inside Index will be replaced.

    Uncle8888 is a simple man with simple mind so it is better for him to pick those stocks that have passed their IPPT (relevant investability screens conducted by professionals in FTSE; unless you think that these professionals are a bunch of jokers there and you are smarter than them.)


    Uncle8888 also recalled that Ah Gong is very important. Many S-Chips went bankrupt when they were deeply in trouble but China Aviation Oil didn't. Why? China Ah Gong and Singapore Ah Gong have saved it! Ah Gongs are Sugar Daddies hor!



    Friday, 21 January 2011

    Another Debate On Property Or Stocks Investing - Part 8

    Read? Another Debate On Property Or Stocks Investing - Part 7

    Another debate during lunch break on investing  properties vs stocks ... investors are getting excited over opportunity in investing in properties soon.


    Sometime, I don't understand why property investors taking second or third housing loans to leverage themselves to take bet on properties don't really see leverages as double-edge sword. It can kill too!


    Read? 3M's - Inside Investor's Mind

    Is this happening in the property investor's mind?
    Optimism Bias: Believing that you are above average and that misfortunes are more likely to befall others

    Read this story. She didn't even invest. She just needed a home to stay and bad thing could happen.

    Read? debt-free — and that, to me, is richness enough

    3M's - Inside Investor's Mind

    Beware "The Seven Deadly Sins of Investing" and best to avoid them.



    Confirmation Bias:

    Only looking for information and news which is in favour of your ideas

    Optimism Bias:

    Believing that you are above average and that misfortunes are more likely to befall others

    Illusion of Control:

    Overestimation of the control you have over economic affairs thinking that you can always influence the outcome

    Overconfidence in Prediction:


    Believing that your prognostication of the future is the best one

    Risk and Regret Aversion:

    Either being too cautious to invest or to risky to get out (risky shift; Shift to Caution)

    Group Think:

    Responding to conformist pressure to think like others

    Memory Distortion:

    Selective forgetting and memory for past experience in the financial world

    Latent Functions of Work

    By Adrian Furnham

    Professor of Psychology

    Read? Keynes on the Rational Savers

    After saving so much money and  having so much money and can't even finish spending it, why do some people still want to work?

    Work is a source of activity


    It keeps people occupied, interested and active

    Work structures time

    It gives daily life reference points; regularities

    Work gives an opportunity for social interaction

    It gives one a friendship and social support network

    Work provides a source of identity

    It gives people a sense of your status in society and values

    Work provides a source of creativity and mastery

    It provides the feeling that one has achieved something worthwhile and useful

    Work gives a sense of purpose

    It makes people feel needed and stops alienation

    -------------------------------
     
    Createwealth8888:
     
    Now you may understand why you may need to work. Ha Ha!
     
    After retiring, it doesn't mean stop working. One still need to find some works to do but only this time pay is not primary concern.
     

    Thursday, 20 January 2011

    Keynes on the Rational Savers

    Read? The Psychology of Money

    After knowing the psychology of money, it might be interesting to know the next topic - the psychology of rational savers by Keynes. (John Maynard Keynes, 1st Baron Keynes, CB was a British economist whose ideas have profoundly affected the theory and practice of modern macroeconomics)

    Precaution

    To build up a reserve against unforeseen contingencies.


    Foresight

    To provide for an anticipated future relation between the income and needs of the individual or his family different from that which exists in the present (old age, education).

    Calculation

    To enjoy interest and appreciation – because larger real consumption in the future is preferable to a present smaller consumption.

    Improvement

    To enjoy a gradually increasing expenditure, since most people look forward to a gradually improving standard of living.

    Independence

    To enjoy a sense of independence and power to do things, though without a clear idea of definite intention of specific action.

    Enterprise

    To secure a capital mass to carry out speculative or business enterprise.

    Pride

    To bequeath a fortune to others.

    Avarice

    To satisfy pure miserliness. (Createwealth8888: This one is really bad and such person does exist in real world)

    Sembcorp Marine signs US$182m contract

     Singapore's Sembcorp Marine, the world's second largest rig builder, said on Thursday it has signed up to US$182 million jack-up rig contract with a wholly-owned unit of Atwood Oceanics

    Wednesday, 19 January 2011

    The Psychology of Money

    By Adrian Furnham

    Professor of Psychology

    1. Money as Security

    The Compulsive Saver

    For them saving is its own reward. They tax themselves and no amount of money saved is sufficient to provide enough security.

    The Self-denier

    Self-deniers tend to be savers but enjoy the self-sacrificial nature of self- imposed poverty. They may spend money on others, to emphasize their martyrdom. Psychoanalysts point out that their behaviour is often a disguise for envy, hostility and resentment towards those who are better off.

    The Fanatical Collector

    Obsessed collectors accumulate all sorts of things, some without much intrinsic value. They turn to material possessions rather than humans as potential sources of affection and security.

    The Compulsive Bargain Hunter

    Money is fanatically retained until the situation is “ideal” and then joyfully given over. The thrill is in out-smarting others – both those selling and those paying the full price.

    2. Money as Power

    The Manipulator

    These people use money to exploit others’ vanity and greed. Manipulating others makes this type feel less helpless and frustrated. Their greatest long-time loss is integrity.

    The Empire builder

    They have (or appear to have) an overriding sense of independence and self-reliance. Repressing or denying their own dependency needs, they may try to make others dependent on them. Many inevitably become isolated and alienated, particularly in their declining years.

    The Godfather

    They have more money to bribe and control so as to feel dominant. They often hide an anger and a great over-sensitivity to being humiliated – hence the importance of public respect. But because they buy loyalty and devotion they tend to attract the weak and insecure. They destroy initiative and independence in others and are left surrounded by second-rate sycophants.

    3. Money as Love

    The Love Buyer


    Many attempt to buy love and respect: those who visit prostitutes; those who feel unloved not unlovable and avoid feelings of rejection and worthlessness by pleasing others with their generosity.

    The Love Seller

    They promise affection, devotion and endearment for inflating others’ ego. They can feign all sorts of responses and are quite naturally attracted to love buyers.

    The Love Stealer

    The kleptomaniac is not an indiscriminate thief but one who seeks out objects of symbolic value to them. They are hungry for love but don’t feel they deserve it.

    4. Money as Freedom

    The Freedom Buyers

    Money buys escape from orders, commands, even suggestions that appear to restrict autonomy and limit independence. They want independence not love : in fact, they repress and hence have a strong fear of dependency urges.

    The Freedom Fighters

    They reject money and materialism as the cause of enslavement of many. Frequently political radicals, drop-outs or technocrats, they are often passive-aggressive and attempt to resolve internal conflicts and confused values. Camaraderie and companionship are the main rewards for joining the anti- money forces.

    ----------------

    Createwealth8888:


    I am more towards Money as Freedom - The Freedom Buyer and hope that soon I will have enough money to buy enough freedom and free myself from the Rat Race.



    Rotary secures S$14.6m EPC deal on Jurong Island

    By ANGELA TAN


    Rotary Engineering Limited has secured a S$14.6 million Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) contract to add new facilities to an existing plant on Jurong Island for chemicals company Stepan Asia Pte Ltd.

    The contract calls for the construction of a four-storey 50,000 tons (expandable to 100,000 tons) per year (TPY) Fractionated Methyl Ester plant as well as the upgrading of an existing plant on Jurong Island.

    The project is scheduled for completion in February 2012.

    Rotary chalks up one success after another

    By RONNIE LIM


    FORGING strategies from challenges - that's what engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) specialist Rotary Engineering is cleverly doing. When the Singapore market for oil terminal projects (its forte) dried up as land-challenged Jurong Island quickly filled up following the influx of higher-value-add petrochemical projects, it was forced to turn outwards. Thus, from local projects (like Hin Leong Trading's Universal Terminal) accounting for 80 per cent of its revenues just five years ago, today it's the reverse.

    Overseas projects - like its billion-dollar Saudi Aramco Total (Satorp) oil terminal in Jubail, Saudi Arabia and another smaller terminal in Fujairah - now account for 60-70 per cent of Rotary's revenue, Chia Kim Piow, its chairman and MD, tells BT. And the group's longer-term target - say, in five years - is for an 80:20, foreign:local revenue split.

    Currently in its sights this year are more Saudi projects, like an estimated US$750 million tankfarm for the US$7 billion Jizan refinery project, as well as break-bulk oil depots near Riyadh, worth about US$200-300 million each. Rotary is also bidding for an oil terminal project in Turkey involving Turkish petrochemicals producer Petkim and Dutch terminal operator Vopak at the port of Aliaga, which will reportedly be modelled along the lines of Jurong Island. And it also wants to venture into Africa, where it is eyeing a tankfarm project in Libya.

    Still, despite the Middle East expected to account for 60 per cent of its projects, and Europe (including Turkey) for another 20 per cent, it is not ignoring home market Singapore. It is currently in discussions with a new wave of incoming specialty chemical producers - like the synthetic rubber producers and others at the new high-purity ethylene oxide 'corridor' on Jurong Island, Mr Chia reveals.

    Construction of such chemical process plants will now form the third leg of Rotary's portfolio, adding to its other established areas like EPC for independent oil terminals, and EPC for tankfarms which are integrated with refineries/ petrochemical complexes, as well as offsite projects like utilities.

    Mr Chia also argues that Europe (which is closing many of its older, inefficient refineries) is also not a mature market, as the continent's strong energy demand in fact translates to a need for new storage and distribution terminals to be built.

    Backing up Rotary's ambitious global drive is its own 7,000-strong trained global workforce (including 1,000 from Singapore), half of whom are from India with the remainder mainly from China - countries where it has established training centres. Having such workers on hand is critical, Mr Chia stresses, lamenting, for instance, the loss of thousands of trained workers 'who just disappeared from Singapore' after the Shell petrochemical complex was completed recently. At its peak, some 6,000-8,000 workers were employed at the Shell site.

    'We are also quite slow,' Mr Chia says, when asked about Rotary's recently announced plan to take stakes in oil terminals in Indonesia (Kalimantan and Surabaya are potential sites, he says), Malaysia and Vietnam, as well as in the Middle East. What he means by this, he explains, is that while property contractors here have gone on to become big property developers, the EPC players haven't as yet done so. Rotary's route to this is likely to be through the BOT (build-own-transfer) process, as operating a terminal is not its forte, he adds.

    Again, this new strategy - to take stakes in its EPC projects - was born out of necessity. Ever since the global credit crunch, banks have been more tightfisted, and Rotary's equity participation of, say, a 15-20 per cent stake in such projects - or roughly equivalent to its typical gross margin of 18-20 per cent for EPC projects - 'will help reassure the bankers', the astute Mr Chia says. It is currently in discussions regarding equity stakes in several potential projects, but is not ready to disclose details just yet, he adds.

    Under its plans to go global, Rotary Engineering, with a market cap of over $500 million, will hold an inaugural regional conference here this Friday with a keynote address by Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam. Some 200 participants including from government organisations and industry, comprising players like Shell, ExxonMobil, Oiltanking, Vopak, National Iran Oil Company, Concord Energy and Malaysian Industrial Development Authority, will be attending.

    Reading and Mind Flip

    Just for Laugh ...

    I believe many of us may have spend some time reading books and articles related to personal finance, motivation, trading and investment, etc. We don't read such books or articles for fun. Right?

    We might be looking for some good and useful ideas presented by the authors and we even want to try out these ideas on ourselves to see whether the ideas works for us.

    Sometime, we may have momentary "aha effect" ; but after a while not much changes happened  to our life journey or financial life journey. We are likely to be more or less heading along the same path before "aha effect".

    I believe to really change the course of our life journey or financial life journey and take a different path, we need more than just "aha effect" after reading such books or articles. We may need a Mind Flip i.e. blow the mind.

    Take for example.

    I believe many people have read this book: "Rich Dad, Poor Dad". How many people after reading it have experienced Mind Flip instead of AHA?

    Read? Work for money? Forget it.

    I can't recall their names and there are few more who were featured on thesundaytimes "Me and Money" have the similar Mind Flip after reading this book.  One of them is Sean Seah, the author of the recent book that I have read.. He too has that Mind Flip and decided to get out of Rat Race despite having a good career owing to his 1st Class Hons. in Business.

    In order to have a Mind Flip, the Mind must first be Open and ready to be Flip; otherwise how to flip? LOL

    3 bananas in the Morning and 4 in the Afternoon (2)

    Just for Laugh ...



    Read? 3 bananas in the Morning and 4 in the Afternoon

    Uncle8888 explained his version of the moral of story ..

    I guess you know who are the monkeys?

    Mr. Market is the Zoo Keeper.

    Why are you so upset when you only receive 3 bananas in the Morning?

    What is your goal in the market?

    1. Trading for an income to put food on the table?
    2. Investing to build up wealth for your retirement, kid's University fund etc when you are in the 30s or 40s?
    When you are trading for an income to put food on the table, it is quite naturally to get upset of having only 3 bananas in the Morning as you are unlikely to have enough bananas to feed your family.

    But, when you are building up wealth, it is a different story. You should be focusing how many bananas you may be getting in the EVENING.

    Mr Market may be giving you only 3 bananas in the Morning, and don't get so UPSET but be PATIENT!

    Soon Mr. Market may decide to give you more than 3 bananas in the Afternoon; and by the Evening you may even have more bananas than you have thought.

    Get it?

    Investors Most Positive on Stocks Since July 2007: BofA Survey

    By: Reuters


    Investors are more positive about equities than they have been since July 2007 and have turned more bearish on bonds, expecting major central banks to keep rates very low despite stronger economic growth, a survey showed.

    The monthly global fund managers' survey from Bank of America-Merrill Lynch showed on Tuesday a net 55 percent of respondents were overweight equities in January, compared with a net 40 percent in December.

    This month's reading means the difference between overweights and underweights is 55 percentage points.

    The poll, which surveyed 199 participants who manage total assets of $562 billion, also showed bond underweight positions rose to a net 54 percent, levels not seen since August 2007, from a net 47 percent last month.

    Cash underweight positions fell to a net 5 percent, compared with 6 percent last month.

    A net 72 percent of respondents expect higher inflation in the next 12 months, the highest in almost six years, but have pushed back expectations for the Federal Reserve's first rise in interest rates from ultra-low levels until well into 2012.

    "Investors essentially stopped trying to fight the Fed, accepting that inflation will be higher but there's no need to fear rate rises. They are left with almost no choice but to buy equities and cut cash and bonds," said Gary Baker, head of European equity strategy at BofA Merrill Lynch.

    "Traditionally alarm bells will go off but there's nothing to suggest in the survey that investors are over-exuberant."

    Investors also expected euro zone and Japanese monetary policies to remain accommodative.

    Average cash holdings rose slightly to 3.7 percent, but remained below the five-year average of 4.2 percent.

    Emerging markets remained the most favored region, although investors have trimmed risks. A net 43 percent of investors were overweight the asset class, down from a November peak of 56 percent.

    Hedge funds reduced their gearing levels. The ratio of gross assets held by hedge funds relative to their capital fell to 1.26 this month from 1.48 in December.

    Their net exposure to equity markets — measured as long minus short as a percentage of capital — fell to 31 percent from 35 last month.

    Regionally, investors turned most optimistic on U.S. equities since late 2008 with a net 27 percent overweight position. Japan's allocation shifted to a net 5 percent overweight from 13 percent underweight in December.

    Investors boosted their net underweight positions on Europe to a six-month high of 9 percent from December's 4 percent.

    "Investors are becoming more positive on the U.S. and Japan is also benefiting from not being Europe," Baker said.

    Tuesday, 18 January 2011

    K-Green posts net profit of $9.57m for 2010

    By LYNN KAN


    K-GREEN Trust posted net profits of $9.57 million, for the full year ended December 31, 2010.

    Profits after tax for the green infrastructure assets trust since its listing on June 29 to Dec 31 was $8.7 million, 22.1 per cent higher than forecast.

    Full-year revenue was $65.8 million, while revenue garnered since listing was $49.3 million. The latter is 22.1 per cent lower than the forecast of $63.3 million, mainly due to lower contributions from a delay in flue gas upgrading works for K-Green's Senoko Plant.

    Distribution per unit for the full year was 4.31 cents, 10.2 per cent higher than K-Green's forecast of 3.91 cents.

    3 bananas in the Morning and 4 in the Afternoon

    Just for Laugh ...



    Zhuangzi told this story to his disciples to make a point.


    Once a zookeeper said to his monkeys: "You'll get 3 bananas in the Morning and 4 in the Afternoon."
    All monkeys are upset.

    "OK. How about 4 bananas in Morning and 3 in the Afternoon?"
    Hearing this, the monkeys are content.

    One should realize that sometimes a change in phrasing does not represent a real change.

    -------------------------------------------
     
    Createwealth8888 tells another story ..
     
    Under current low interest rate of 0.X%, some investors are upset of having three bananas in Morning and they want more bananas in Morning by going to the stock market now. But, instead of getting more bananas in the Morning, who know? Mr. Market may even take away all their bananas in the Afternoon or leave them with little bananas.
     
    The moral of story ..
     
    Sometime as retail investors, we may have to be contented with 3 bananas in the Morning and we may get four bananas in the Afternoon by being more patient; otherwise we may not get any bananas in the Afternoon for being upset of having three bananas in the Morning.
     
    Get it? So chim?
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