As from April 2013 my Journey in Investing is to create Retirement Income for Life till 80 years old for two over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

Welcome to Ministry of Wealth!

This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

It is here where I share with you how I did it! FREE Education in stock market wisdom.

Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down



Important Notice and Attention: If you are looking for such ideas; here is the wrong blog to visit.

Value Investing
Dividend/Income Investing
Technical Analysis and Charting
Stock Tips

Thursday, 30 June 2011

H1 FY 2011 Performance Report : Down -4.8% from H1 2010

Year Goal Hit Rate

(In 2003, I set some bullish progressive year goals from 2003 to 2011; and 2011 Year Goal is 76.8% of 2010 Total Salary including all CPF contributions. Quite a big goal to achieve!)

Year Goal Hit Rate for 2011 fell by -4.8% from 35.5% in H1 FY 10 to 30.7% in H1 FY 11.



The poor goal hit was due to lack of new trading positions in the quarter and rolling forward the realization of profits to next quarter for Olam and Noble.

Active Investing Performance

Since Nov 08 after I have given up active contra trading and revised my active investing/trading strategies.

Performance indicators are as follows:



Current CAGR is 16.8% as on 30 Jun 2011 market closing price over 2.61 years since Nov 2008

But at one stage in this quarter, CAGR has dropped to a new low at 16.3%

Historical ROC per Trade Distribution
















54% of the total completed trades are in range of 6-10% ROC and the next 13% in the range of 11-15% ROC.

I will need to improve the % share in the ROC Pie in the second segment i.e. 11-15% ROC per trade.

Wednesday, 29 June 2011

Noble - Possible breakout?

DBS applies to tap $30b currency swap with China

By JASMINE NG


DBS Bank announced on Wednesday that it has applied to the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to tap the bilateral currency swap agreement established between the central banks of Singapore and China.

Under an agreement signed in July last year, the MAS and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) had established a S$30 billion bilateral currency swap arrangement to promote bilateral trade and direct investments between the two countries.

By tapping the swap line facility, DBS is able to provide customers with the option of settling their trades in yuan, instead of in more conventional US$ terms.

'The swap facility presents interesting opportunities to the market, providing an alternative source of RMB funding outside China, which will boost two-way trade flows and investments between Singapore and China,' manager of DBS Singapore, Sim S. Lim said.

Keppel clinches Brazilian shipbuilding contracts worth S$140 million

KSM Brasil draws flow of new orders ahead of its anticipated opening in 1Q2012.


Keppel Singmarine Brasil (KSM Brasil), Keppel Offshore & Marine Ltd (Keppel O&M)'s new 7.6-ha shipbuilding facility in the state of Santa Catarina, has secured two newbuild contracts worth about S$140 million from fleet operators in Brazil.

The first contract entails building a series of six 45-tonne bollard pull twin-screw Azimuth Stern Drive (ASD) harbour tugboats, for REBRAS - Rebocadores do Brasil S.A. (SMIT Rebras).

In the second contract, the yard will construct a large-sized 4500dwt Platform Supply Vessel (PSV) based on its proprietary MTD 9045P-DE design for Keppel O&M's Brazilian ship-owning arm, Guanabara Navegacao Ltda (GNL).This is the first vessel constructed under the business model to build Offshore Support Vessels in anticipation of demand in Brazil, and such vessels will be offered for bare-boat charter or sale upon completion.

KSM Brasil specialises in constructing Offshore Support Vessels such as Anchor Handling Tug Supply (AHTS) vessels, PSVs, Oil Recovery Support Vessels and harbour/terminal tugboats.

The new facility in Brazil is also able to fabricate offshore steel structures and support major projects undertaken by Keppel's BrasFELS yard in Angra dos Reis.

Mr Hoe Eng Hock, Executive Director of KSM Brasil shared, "Petrobras will need over 100 Brazilian-built offshore support vessels by 2020, to facilitate the exploration and development of the Santos Basin's deep water pre-salt fields. We see a growing market for purpose-built support vessels that can operate safely and efficiently offshore Brazil.

"Keppel Singmarine has been building harbour tugs for the global fleet of Smit in Singapore and China Nantong for the past 20 years. With the award of six harbour tugs contract, the relationship and partnership between Smit and Keppel has deepened and expanded to the new frontier in Brazil."

KSM Brasil's scope for the six tugboats includes detailed design and engineering work and the purchase of all equipment. The first tugboat will be delivered in 4Q2012, followed by the remaining five at three-month intervals. These Robert Allan-designed tugboats will be deployed by SMIT Rebras to work at key ports across Brazil.

Meanwhile, GNL's 4500 dwt PSV is slated for completion in 2013. The PSV is custom-designed by Keppel's Marine Technology Development unit to meet the stringent requirements of Petrobras. The unique arrangement of the PSV's internal tanks and systems enable it to transport a wide combination of oil-based and water-based bulk cargoes for offshore exploration and production.

This ABS Classed PSV spans 94.2m long and 19.8m wide. It features a large deadweight capacity in excess of 4,500 tonne and a deck space of 1000sqm which can accommodate 26 crew members. Equipped with a diesel-electric propulsion system and dynamic positioning (DP) 2 capability, this PSV is well suited to operate in different offshore conditions.

The above contracts are not expected to have any material impact on the net tangible assets and earnings per share of Keppel Corporation Limited for the current financial year.

Spotting Olam's Bull rally 6 days before it happens

Just For Laugh ....

From time to time, I will receive email from School Of Kung Fu Charting e.g.



See Uncle8888's Simple Charting on Olam

School of Kung Fu will charge you $2-$3K+ for you to learn how to spot it.

Here, you see it at near real time for FREE.

In Investing - difference between committed and involved

Read? Bacon and eggs - difference between committed and involved

SMOL asked:

Can you see the difference between being committed and involved?

The pig is committed, while the hen is involved.

Do you see parallels between the above story and you?


1) Your relationship?
2) Your business partner?
3) Your work place?
4) Your investing/trading journey?

In investing, how many retail investors are involved with their investing by getting their hands dirty and sometime bloody. Often, most retail investors forget that in the stock market there is no place for newbies and amateurs. Once you are in the market, you are expected to play like a pro.

I observe that even young retail investors in their 20s and 30s are likely to be involved rather than committed to their investing as they seen to have soft investing goals like receiving dividends and fighting inflation.

In your investing journey, you must get involved by getting your hands dirty and get committed to your harder long-term investing goals. But, at first, you may want to be more realistic by setting flat goals for the initial years and setting progressive goals over the later years.

So Get Involved and Get Committed too!

Tuesday, 28 June 2011

Legg Mason’s Miller Sells Kodak Stake

Createwealth8888:

Another great investor lost money.

------------------------------------------------

Bill Miller, who estimated a decade ago that Eastman Kodak Co. (EK) was worth about $100 a share, sold his flagship fund’s stake in the imaging company for a lot less.


Legg Mason Capital Management Value Trust (LMVTX), run by Miller since 1982, disclosed in a semi-annual report last week that the fund sold 18.2 million Kodak shares late last year and during this year’s first quarter for about $3.89 each on average. The fund realized a $551 million loss through the divestiture, according to the report.

Miller, 61, began loading up on Kodak shares in 2000 and, by the end of 2005, his firm owned as much as 25 percent of the Rochester, New York, company. Value Trust, one of several Legg Mason funds and accounts to hold Kodak stock, kept the bulk of its stake for more than a decade, only to sell after the film company had lost more than 90 percent of its market value.

“Part of it was just this mentality that this was just a temporary setback and Kodak would be able to get quickly back on track,” said Bridget Hughes, an analyst at Morningstar Inc., a Chicago-based stock and fund research firm. “It was not only a mistake, it was also causing a lot of client angst.”

The $3.4 billion Value Trust has declined about 2.3 percent this year, a performance that ranks it behind 94 percent of rival funds that follow a similar strategy, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Miller and his colleague Sam Peters are plowing more of the fund’s assets into companies with large market capitalizations.

Large Cap Investor

Miller gained fame for beating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index for a record 15 straight years through 2005, only to trail the U.S. benchmark during the next three years as he invested in beaten down banks and homebuilders. Miller outperformed peers in 2009 as the stock market rebounded.

During the six months ended April 30, Value Trust invested in Apple Inc. (AAPL), Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer Inc. (PFE), and Chevron Corp., according to the semi-annual report filed last week with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. At the same time, the fund has been selling or reducing its holdings in companies with smaller market values, including Amgen Inc., AES Corp. and Kodak.

As a result, the average market value of companies held by the fund rose about $30 billion during the six months ended April 30 to $94 billion, the SEC filing shows. The moves also left the Value Trust holding stocks with a lower price-to- earnings ratio, about 9.9 times estimated earnings for 2012, the filing said.

“They do see the best value in large cap and Kodak’s market cap was inconsistent with that,” Mary Athridge, a Legg Mason spokeswoman, said in an e-mail response to questions.

The Legg Mason Opportunity Trust, a smaller fund managed by Miller, continued to hold 17.8 million Kodak shares as of March 31, according to regulatory data compiled by Bloomberg.

‘Building a Company’

“Both the board and long term investors understand we are building a new company and they know that this isn’t accomplished overnight,” said Gerard Meuchner, a Kodak spokesman, adding that Legg Mason remains one of the company’s largest shareholders. “They also believe our strategy will deliver sustainable profitable growth.”

Now valued at $923 million, Kodak was once much bigger, ranking as the third-largest company in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in June 1974 with a market capitalization of $17 billion, said Howard Silverblatt, a senior index analyst at New York-based S&P. After reaching a peak of $26.7 billion at the end of 1996, the company’s market value began shrinking, and in December Kodak was removed from the S&P 500 along with the New York Times Co., he said.

“It was a commentary to some degree on the newspaper and film industries,” Silverblatt said in an interview. “That was more of a macro change, looking at the way the economy has shifted.”

Loyal Shareholder

Miller, the chief investment officer at Legg Mason Capital Management Inc., began buying Kodak shares for Value Trust during the second quarter of 2000. In a shareholder report for the period, Miller said that concerns about the impact of digital photography on the company’s film business were tempered by continued growth in conventional camera sales and picture taking.

“We think Kodak, currently selling around $56, is worth close to $100,” Miller said in the report, adding that he expected the company to generate free cash equal to almost half of its market capitalization over the next five years.

By the end of 2005, Legg Mason funds and accounts owned a combined 24.9 percent stake comprised of 71.5 million Kodak shares, according to the film company’s annual proxy statement. That included 23 million shares held by Value Trust.

Share Price Decline

Kodak shares closed at $3.43 yesterday, down from $66.25 at the end of 1999. Revenue totaled $7.19 billion last year, down from $14.3 billion in 2005, according to Bloomberg data.

The company is now competing with Hewlett-Packard Co. in providing digital printing technology to consumers and commercial enterprises, according to Mark Kaufman, an analyst at Rafferty Capital Markets Inc. in New York. Kaufman rates Kodak shares a buy, citing the prospects for the new digital printers as well as the company’s ability to continue churning out money, even at reduced revenue levels.

“Their old film business, which everyone abhors and denigrates, has been generating cash over the years consistently,” Kaufman said in an interview. “The other big cash generator has been their licensing fees from their patent portfolio.”

COMPLETION OF REDEMPTION OF US$700,000,000 6.625% SENIOR NOTES DUE 2015

Noble Group Limited wishes to announce that, pursuant to the terms of the indenture dated 17 March 2005 in respect of the US$700,000,000 6.625% Senior Notes due 2015 (“Notes”) and its exercise of the optional redemption provisions therein, it has completed the redemption of all of the outstanding Notes on 28 June 2011.


“The redemption of these Notes reiterates our focus on and proactive management of our capital structure.” said Robert van der Zalm, CFO of Noble Group.

Before the above redemption, there was US$191,859,000 aggregate principal amount of the Notes outstanding. The total interest cost saving for Noble Group resulting from the early redemption of the Notes is estimated to be around US$17.6 million.

Monday, 27 June 2011

Biosensors eyes stent markets in China, Japan

SINGAPORE - The Chinese market for drug-eluting stents, used to treat blocked arteries, is estimated to be worth more than US$1 billion by 2014, and Singapore's Biosensors International aims to increase its current 27-30 per cent share as a rival firm exits the sector, its chairman said.

Biosensors is also eyeing a 20 per cent market share in Japan by May 2012 through its licensee Terumo Corp, which makes the Nobori stent using the Singapore company's technology in exchange for royalty payments.

US$500-600 million is more or less what I see is the market that is being served in China (currently),' Biosensors chairman Yoh-Chie Lu told Reuters. 'In terms of number of cases or procedures, according to the estimates, by 2014 it would be double.'

Drug-eluting stents (DES) have a medicated coating to help prevent the reclogging of arteries after the stents are inserted in angioplasty procedures.

According to the World Health Organisation, an estimated 17 million people die of cardiovascular diseases, particularly heart attacks and strokes, every year.

Mr Lu said that the Chinese DES market will grow in coming years because of the government's healthcare initiative, which reimburses stent treatments, as well as by the ageing population.

Biosensors announced earlier this month it plans to buy the remaining 50 per cent stake in Chinese stent maker JW Medical Systems (JWMS) from Hong Kong-listed Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer for S$625.4 million (US$506.8 million).

Biosensors is estimated to have a 27-30 per cent share of the overall DES market in China through JWMS and this could increase following the withdrawal of competitor Johnson & Johnson from the DES business, Mr Lu said.

'With Johnson & Johnson pulling out, it's for us to grab.

Just like everybody in the market, we have the ability to replace their business with ours,' he said. However, he declined to disclose Biosensors' market share target in China.

J&J announced earlier this month it will stop selling drug-eluting stents, a former profit driver for the diversified healthcare company that has stumbled due to safety concerns and fierce competition from rival products.

Nomura wrote in a report that Biosensors could gain market share from J&J's pullout and it could also benefit from hiring the sales and technical staff affected. The brokerage has a buy call and S$1.50 target price on Biosensors.

In China, Biosensors competes through JWMS with local players such as MicroPort Scientific and Lepu Medical, as well as foreign companies like Boston Scientific and Medtronic.

In Japan, analysts noted that the market share of Nobori - the first locally-made DES by a Japanese medical technology firm following the approval by authorities - could be significant given Japanese physicians' loyalty to local companies.

'Our licensee Terumo has never sold DES into the Japanese market until now, after the approval. In the first 12 months from May this year, they expect to get around 20 per cent share of the DES market by volumes in Japan,' Mr Lu said.

He added that Biosensors is open in the next 3-5 years to acquiring companies with technologies that are complementary to the DES business, as well as a strong distribution network in global markets, particularly Asia and Latin America. -- REUTERS

Sunday, 26 June 2011

In investing/trading, lessons will be learnt from your most painful losses.

Just For Thinking ...

In investing/trading, can you really remember and learn from your small losses here and there. I don't think so. These small losses may annoy or disturb you for a little while; but it will never hurt you much. You are likely to brush aside these small losses either as overheads or loose changes. You may be back to the same old way again.

It is only through huge losses and painful experience that lessons taught by Mr. Market are learnt and well remembered. Mr. Market likes to charge you costly tuition fee when you take lessons from him.

Who influence you into investing?

invest, me & my money, june 26, 2011 thesunday,

He was influenced by a former colleague who was making huge profits in the stock market.

Read? The truths behind the ideas of making money in the stock market.

Somehow, I was quite re-assured and confident after knowing that these Lao Jiao ex-colleagues have make it big in the stock market. I began to believe that I am the promising Eagle. I can fly!

May be you should open your eyes wide and look around your office. As we spend lots of our precious time in the office and if we can find people in the office who are successful in making money in the stock market. It can be truly influencing and believing as you see them with your own eyes everyday.

They will only share with you unless they can trust you not to back-stab them. LOL!

Noble


Possible H1 window dressing next week to dress up nicely for commodity related funds since commodities related stocks have been beaten so badly in this quarter.

Must break out $1.96 convincing and must not break down 1.85

NB: Recently, I bought some Noble @ $1.85

Following My Superheroes!

Just For Thinking ....

Wow! My Superheroes
 
When I was young, I read a lots of comics on Superheroes. I really love them and sometime I would dream of becoming the next superhero.

Then I was an adult, I have my Online Superheroes

In 200x, practically, I was visiting every investment blogs, cboxes, and forums that I came to know. I was hoping to find my online Superheroes in investing/trading in some of them. I was hoping to learn the magical power from them and also dreaming to become the next Superhero like them.

Some investment bloggers are more transparent, confidence and kind to blog out enough details on their portfolio or trading transactions for us to know how they are doing e.g. by providing stock name, buying and selling price, ROC, Portfolio Value and Returns, and etc so that there is no need for us to guess how they are doing. These were my favourite investment bloggers since I could easily rate them based on their posted results - Good, Average or Bad. The rest of other bloggers I would visit them for leisures like reading online news or newspapers when I was bored. I would take a quick glance but no serious reading since most of them would blog in a way for us to guess that they were doing "well".

Some of my favourite bloggers were doing so well and they became my online superheroes in investing/trading. I visited their blog days and nights. Sometime, I might join in comments or chats to clarify; but most of the times, I was lurking behind reading, taking mental notes and trying to learn from them.

Where are My Few Online Superheroes?

Sadly, after 2009, the Great Evil Bear from Planet Alien came in 2008/09 and killed them ALL They stopped blogging. One of them sadly posted the last article - " I have quited from full time trading and will be looking for a job."

Till now, I am still looking for my new online SuperHeroes. May be they will appear at the next Great Bull.

Saturday, 25 June 2011

Bought (Subscribe) for Olam @ $2.56

Since 2008, I have been fighting Olam with only three commandos.

No 2 Commando: $2.52 (Front Line)
No 1 Commando: $1.68 (Guarding Base Camp since Sep 2008)

Past ROC for 8 rounds since Sep 2008: From 5.9% to 20.8% in 3 to 311 holding days.

Round 8: ROC 20.8%, 65 days, B $2.41 S $2.93
Round 7: ROC 15.8%, 311 days, B $2.48 S $2.89
Round 6: ROC 10.2%, 8 days, B $2.39 S $2.65
Round 5: ROC 6.3%, 3 days, B $2.45 S $2.62 (Bought back higher)
Round 4: ROC 5.9%, 15 days, B $2.26 S $2.41
Round 3: ROC 9.6%, 8 days, B $2.18 S $2.40
Round 2: ROC 7.0%, 8 days, B $2.18 S $2.35 (Bought back higher. Wait too long)
Round 1: ROC 9.8%, 161 days, B $1.37 S $1.52

Paulson addresses disastrous Sino-Forest bet



 Createwealth8888:

Read? Understanding Stock Market Risks - Financial Fraud Risk is real! (2)

Even the best investor like John Paulson also kena conned.


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BOSTON - John Paulson told investors on Friday he was 'disappointed' his bet on a Chinese forest company cost them over US$100 million in losses.

After staying mum for weeks on his disastrous bet on Sino-Forest, a forestry company that lost much of its value in the wake of a critical report from a short-seller, Mr Paulson finally broke his silence in a four-page letter. In the letter, he described the fund's initial interest in Sino-Forest and promised to watch the situation.

Mr Paulson's flagship Advantage Fund, the biggest in his US$37 billion empire, has lost 9.7 per cent this month thanks in part to Sino-Forest's crash. The loss turns the Advantage Fund into one of the industry's biggest single losers, with a 15.5 per cent decline for the year, said investors in the fund who were not allowed to discuss performance publicly.

While some longtime Paulson investors said on Friday they were angry with the billionaire manager, accusing him of having gotten too big to react quickly to disappointing market news, Mr Paulson said he was suffering right along with them.

'As the largest investors in the Paulson Advantage strategy, the Paulson partners share your disappointment in this outcome,' the letter said.
AR Magazine first reported the news on Friday.

A week ago, Mr Paulson liquidated his 14.1 per cent stake in Sino-Forest some two weeks after short-seller Carson Block and his Muddy Waters LLC research firm accused Sino-Forest of exaggerating its forest assets.

While some of Mr Paulson's funds are performing poorly, there are also some strong performers. His US$3 billion Recovery Fund is up 4.22 per cent, thanks in part to a winning bet on privately held bank OneWest. -- REUTERS

DOW vs. STI since Jan 2009

Technical Indicators? (4) - Does it really matter in SG stock market?

Borrow the idea from La Papillion


** "BIAS" is a special feature in my blog where I get to say whatever I want with scant regards for your feelings. I'm not politically correct in this feature, so go ahead, judge me."


Read? Fundamental or Technical Analysis? (4)

Read? Technical Indicators? (3)

Read? Who Moves My Market? - Part 2

Read? Proprietary trader fined S$200,000 for manipulating stock market
Not enough? Want more?

Gohsip once commented:  Uncle8888,  you said "if you look at my charts posted with those technical indicators, they are just there to confuse people. LOL." You damn funny la!

If you happened to take a close look at my recent charts posted. I have decided not to be funny and stop confusing people.


Technical Indicators developed for which market?

Most of these common and popular technical indicators are developed by "ang mo" and they are tested and back-tested in the US markets to prove that these indicators are doable and may be reliable under certain market conditions.

But, you have to take note that these indicators are not developed for SG market and have not been proved by the developers that these indicators are still applicable here.

Well, sometime, I am really amused by some people who are trying to apply and test their TA knowledge on low volume stocks and blogging about it convincing. I think this is really a joke!

Especially for newbies to technical analysis, they may tend to trust and believe in some oldies showing off their TA knowledge in the cyber world.

Beware, if you choose to believe that these common and popular technical indicators which are NOT developed for SG stock market are still applicable and can be reliable here; then probably you need lots of money to exercise your brain.

Alternatively, you may be better off in learning to become pilot fishes and American cockroaches. Most likely you may be able to survive over market cycles.

Friday, 24 June 2011

Quantitative analysis on investment?

Read? How do you measure Opportunity Cost?

Read? The little boy and the dollar notes

The final outcome of every investment decision or investing strategy will have an impact on the performance of our portfolio and measuring it against our investing goals or targets.

We can choose to either use CAGR or IXRR to measure this performance. We may even want to take it one step further by ploting it either as daily or weekly or monthly Line Graph as it is easier to visualise how our portfolio is doing.

Is this quantitative analysis on investment? Anyone?

Thursday, 23 June 2011

Singapore's May CPI up 4.5% on-year

SINGAPORE: Singapore's consumer price index (CPI) increased by 4.5 per cent on-year in May, on account of higher costs of housing, transport and food - the same figure that was recorded in April.

According to data released Thursday by the Department of Statistics, excluding accommodation costs, the consumer price index rose by 3.3 per cent.

Analysts had expected a moderation in May's inflation to 4.1 per cent, as monetary tightening helped tame inflationary pressures and global commodity prices fell.

But this was not the case as the cost of transport rose 7.5 per cent in May, as a result of higher prices for cars and petrol.

Housing cost rose by 8.1 per cent, as a result of higher accommodation costs and electricity tariffs.

Food prices rose 2.8 per cent, largely due to more expensive prepared meals and ingredients.

The consumer price index in May went up by 0.6 per cent over April this year.

The higher cost of housing was partly offset by the lower costs of transport, "recreation & others" as well as clothing & footwear.

Housing cost increased largely due to higher service & conservancy charges as rebates for service & conservancy charges were given in April but not in May.

The MAS core inflation measure, which excludes the costs of accommodation and private road transport, rose 2.1 per cent on-year.

On-month, the MAS core inflation measure declined by a marginal 0.1 per cent.

- CNA/cc

Will You Try To Pay Off Your Housing Loan ASAP If You Have One? (10)

Read? Will You Try To Pay Off Your Housing Loan ASAP If You Have One? (9)

Fully paid home may go beyond the Returns of investment dollars and opportunity cost

What is the dollar value of the Mind of Peace and Beloved Gift to your family when you are gone?

The best gifts to leave behind for our family when we are gone are (1) fully paid home (if not, then fully insured mortgage insurance), (2) adequate life insurance coverage and (3) well written Will.

We should aim for ONE THING LESS to worry for them.

So, what is the dollar value of this One Thing less to worry for your family? Anyone?

Cowboys, Farmers, Fishermen, and Hunters.

Just For Laugh ...

The cowboys, farmers, fishermen and hunters were arguing among themselves who is the smartest in making money from the market and who has the right strategy to do it?

Actually, in investing there is only one right answer. The one who makes the most money in the shortest time is the clear winner of all.  How winner did it is the least important of all.

Noble

Wednesday, 22 June 2011

Paulson May Deal Clients $720 Million Loss

Createwealth8888: Even Paulson also lost money!

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John Paulson’s $37 billion hedge fund sold its entire stake in Sino-Forest Corp. (TRE), the Chinese tree-plantation owner accused of overstating timber holdings, dealing investors a potential C$705 million ($720 million) loss.


Paulson & Co., which held 34.7 million shares of Sino- Forest as of April 29, said in a filing yesterday that it had disposed of the stake as of June 17. The New York-based firm’s holding was worth C$815.80 million when it was disclosed. Its value had dropped to C$110.69 million by the end of last week.

The investment is a public misstep for Paulson, 55, who’s betting on an economic recovery after making $15 billion for his backers in 2007 wagering against subprime mortgages. His largest fund lost about 13 percent in the first half of June, bringing declines this year to about 20 percent, as bets on Sino-Forest and U.S. bank stocks soured, two investors said last week.

“Paulson is under the limelight on this investment,” said Steven Persky of Dalton Investments LLC, a Los Angeles-based fund with $1.3 billion in assets. Still, “any money manager is going to have some losing trades, it’s part of life.”

Sino-Forest has slumped 85 percent since June 1, the day before Muddy Waters LLC, an investment firm run by Carson Block that’s betting against the stock, said the forestry company overstated its timber holdings. Sino-Forest has said Block’s statements are false.

Biggest Shareholder

Paulson, the biggest shareholder in Sino-Forest until the selloff, probably reduced losses by paring the stake before the Muddy Waters report. The hedge fund told clients in a June 3 letter that its total investment in Sino-Forest represented about 2 percent of the Advantage and Advantage Plus funds as of June 2. The funds have $18 billion in assets, a person familiar with the firm said at the time. The letter suggests the firm had cut its stake by about 30 percent by June 2, when Sino-Forest shares lost 64 percent.

A spokesman for Paulson declined to comment.

“Due to the uncertainty over Sino-Forest’s public disclosures and financial statements, we have sold our stock and await the results of the independent committee’s investigation,” Paulson said in an e-mailed statement.

Paulson owned Sino-Forest shares since at least March 2008, when the firm reported owning a 10 percent stake in the company, enough to trigger Canadian reporting requirements. By June 2009, Paulson owned 40.7 million Sino-Forest shares, a 19 percent stake, according to filings with regulators.

‘Very Supportive’

Paulson disclosed the sale of his stake less than a week after Sino-Forest Chief Financial Officer David Horsley said in an interview that the hedge-fund manager has been “very supportive, giving us suggestions” on how to deal with Block’s allegations. Sino-Forest shares have lost about C$3.8 billion in value since Block released his report.

Allen Chan, Sino-Forest’s chairman and chief executive officer, has denied the allegations from Muddy Waters. He established an independent committee to investigate and appointed PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP to assist.

April Emspak, an external communications adviser to Sino- Forest, said company executives were not immediately available to comment on Paulson’s sale.

Paulson rebounded from similar losses last year, when the Advantage Plus fund gained as much as 18 percent, depending on the share class, after falling 11 percent in the first eight months.

‘Top Manager’

“Over the past five years Paulson has been considered the top hedge fund manager in the industry,” said Don Steinbrugge, managing partner of Agecroft Partners LLC, a Richmond, Virginia- based firm that advises hedge funds and investors. “This mistake in his portfolio will show he is not infallible, but he will still maintain the reputation of being one of the top players.”

The hedge-fund manager has been betting on an economic recovery by 2012, which is why he’s been bullish on U.S. banking stocks. Citigroup, Paulson’s third-largest stock holding according to a regulatory filing, has declined 19 percent this year, and Bank of America Corp., the firm’s fifth-largest stake, is down 21 percent.

Paulson told investors in a letter in late 2009 that Bank of America may almost double over the next two years. The stock has lost about a third of its value since then.

Poor becomes poorer. Rich becomes richer. Why???

Just For Thinking ....

Why Poor becomes poorer?

Inflation. Just inflation alone is enough to make the Poor becomes poorer.

Why Rich becomes richer?

More investment opportunities. The Rich has lots of money to invest for good returns when rare investment opportunities come.

Proprietary trader fined S$200,000 for manipulating stock market

 Createwealth8888: For obvious reason, I avoid low volume for short-term trading.

 -------------------------------
SINGAPORE: Forty-four-year-old Sim Tee Yang, who was with CIMB GK Securities, was fined S$200,000 for manipulating the stock market.

Sim knew that by trading in both CapitaMall Trust units and warrants, he could influence their prices and make a profit.

He lost some S$8,700 after trading with CapitaMall Trust units between May and August 2005.

But made a gain of more than S$25,000 when he traded with CapitaMall warrants at the same time.

As a result, he made a net profit of almost S$17,000.

Sim, who pleaded guilty to four charges last month, could have been jailed up to seven years, fined a maximum of S$250,000 or both, for each charge.

Eight remaining ones were taken into consideration during sentencing.

Defence counsel Andy Yeo told District Judge Toh Yung Cheong that Sim, who had a clean record, had not set out to undermine or rig the market.

Mr Yeo pleaded for Sim to be fined S$100,000, saying that this was "manifestly adequate".

Deputy Public Prosecutor James Lee, however, asked for a deterrent fine.

He stressed that there was a need to deter "sophisticated market players", like Sim from committing a similar offence.

"The need to protect investors' confidence in the financial market cannot be emphasised more", said DPP Lee.

- CNA/cc

Tuesday, 21 June 2011

That Friday I went hunting ....

Just For Laugh ....

Last Friday, I went hunting and loaded my gun with three silver bullets. I took aim at three blue elephants.

Two elephants came so near and I fired two silver bullets. I hit the two elephants on their backside and they ran away as fast as they could. 

But, the third elephant didn't come close enough for me to shoot.

Today, some people are curious and ask why didn't you shoot another elephant since you have loaded the bullet in the gun.

Why should I risk the third silver bullet when I already have two big elephants were on hit.  I shall wait to collect the game. Save the silver bullet for the next hunting season. There will always be elephants. Get it?

How do you navigate in the stock market?


Following someone?

1. Following someone

You navigate in the stock market by listening to stock analysts and brokers; or you follow your favourite investment bloggers; or you follow the loudest and the most convincing chatters in cboxes or forums; or you follow the flavour of the day in cboxes or forums.



GPS Navigator

2. GPS Navigator

You swear that you have found the best GPS Navigator in technical analysis; but there are two ways to use it. 

You trust 100% the accuracy of its signal. When the GPS Navigator says Right you keep right and turns. When it says Left, you keep left and turns.

But, you found out the "RIGHT' way to use it. When the GPS Navigator says Right you keep right and turns. When it says Left, then you argue with it. It is not the 'RIGHT' way to turn. There is no Left turn hor! 



Map and a Travel Plan

3. Map and a Travel Plan

You have a Map on hand and have a Travel Plan of where you want to go. You study the map carefully and plan your route. But, there are many times you simply lost your way. You got stuck. You waste time by studying the map again and again trying to pick the next 'Right' route to continue your journey.

 
So how do you navigate in the stock market?

Createwealth8888 navigates in the stock market with a Map and a 10 years Travel Plan; but he will revise his Travel Plan again on 1 Jan 2012.

Second Gift from Jewel in Aussie




Today, so happy to receive second set of gift from Jewel from far far land in Aussie through the hands of her Aunt in Singapore. Thank you. Jewel and her Aunt too.

Monday, 20 June 2011

The Capital Group Companies is cutting losses on CapitaMalls Asia. Why???

The Capital Group Companies, Inc unloaded more shares of real estate investor and developer and mall operator CapitaMalls Asia with 38.7 million shares sold from April 29 to June 9 at estimated prices of $1.77 to $1.58 each. The trades reduced its deemed holdings by 13 per cent to 271.3 million shares or 6.98 per cent of the issued capital. The fund manager previously sold 36.8 million shares on April 28 at an estimated price of $1.77 each and 89.16 million shares from July 2010 to March 1 this year at estimated prices of $2.07 to $1.75 each. Overall, the fund manager's stake is down by 164.66 million shares or 38 per cent since July 2010.


The disposals by The Capital Group Companies since July 2010 were made at below its purchase prices based on the 62.64 million shares that the group acquired from Jan 26 to Feb 12, 2010 at estimated prices of $2.28 to $2.21 each. The Capital Group Companies reported an initial filing on Nov 25, 2009 of 34 million shares at $2.26 each, which raised its interest to 5.37 per cent.

Investors should note that The Capital Group Companies' sale prices were lower than the IPO price in November 2009 of $2.12. CapitaMalls Asia announced on April 21 a 22.5 per cent drop in Q1 profit after tax to $50.194 million for the three months to March 31, 2011. The stock closed at $1.41 on Friday.

Olam's strategy: Long-term sustainability

Acquisitions, capital raising necessary for growth: CEO


By FELDA CHAY

THE market has yet to give its stamp of approval to Olam International's recent acquisitions and capital raising - done in the name of expanding the business - but chief executive Sunny Verghese is unfazed.

Mr Verghese: Argument will be won when the results start showing

During an interview with BT last week, Mr Verghese acknowledged that ventures such as its mega US$1.5 billion project in the Republic of Gabon have a long gestation period, and will not be earnings accretive in the near horizon. The company's recent move to raise funds through a share placement is also dilutive, he conceded.

But he is convinced that such moves are essential to keep the commodity supplier growing over the longer term, and that the argument will be won when the results start showing.

'Now as a CEO, and also as the owner of a business and a substantial shareholder, I have to make capital choices and investment decisions based on the vantage point of view of a continuing shareholder. Olam cannot just be driven by analyst or stock market pressures to deliver in the short term. We have to deliver sustainably over the long term.

'We have to believe that somebody is going to own this business forever, and think of what is in the best interest of that owner, how we can develop a strategy and make capital choices and investment decisions that will allow us to maximise the long-term intrinsic value of this continuing shareholder.'

Since Olam announced its Gabon fertiliser plant and palm plantation projects, its shares have fallen from the $3.25 they closed at before the deal was announced, to $2.59 last Friday - a whopping 20.3 per cent drop.

While the project is just one of the reasons why Olam's shares have tumbled - other reasons include an analyst report that raised questions on Olam's accounting restatements, and macroeconomic fears - investors are clearly unwilling to invest in the firm given that the project, Olam's largest to date, will only yield earnings in its financial year 2014.

The company's recent share placement has not helped. Since announcing its $740 million fund raising two weeks ago, its shares have tumbled 24 cents amid fears that earnings per share (EPS) will be diluted.

This could well be true, but Mr Verghese is quick to point that the group's EPS remains on track to double every three years. Under Olam's six-year plan that spans the financial years 2010-2015, the group set itself the target of earning US$480 million by FY2015 - quadruple the US$120 million that it earned in FY 2009. According to Mr Verghese, this means that earnings should grow at about 25-26 per cent each year. And so far, Olam has 'significantly exceeded this target of 26 per cent earnings growth'.

'So while we have raised additional equity and we will get diluted, we are hoping that on an EPS basis, growth over this period will be at 25-26 per cent. Which means our actual earnings growth could be 30 per cent, but because of dilution, we will still grow at 25-26 per cent.

'If you grow at such rates, you are doubling every three years. And we have developed a strategy and a pathway to be able to do that over the next few years.'

Of the funds raised from its recent fund raising exercises - which includes a US$1.25 billion syndicated-term loan facility and the $740 million equity placement - 40 per cent will go towards expanding its upstream business.

Another 45 per cent will go into its mid-stream manufacturing and processing division, while 10 per cent will be allocated to the group's supply chain core. The remaining 5 per cent will be reserved for Olam's downstream business.

The group's expansion upstream will see it invest in more coffee plantations, and Mr Verghese said it is looking to invest in plantations in Tanzania. Olam already has coffee plantations in Laos.

Olam is also going to expand its dairy farming activities in Uruguay - an initiative that has seen the firm launch its second offer for all of the shares of New Zealand Farming Systems Uruguay. 'Similarly we are going to invest in almond plantations in the US, palm and rubber plantations in Africa, rice farming, peanut cultivation, soyabean cultivation. We are also looking at getting more hard wood and teak forest concessions,' said Mr Verghese.

Plans for its mid-stream business include further investments in sugar milling, soluble coffee manufacturing, cashew processing, cocoa processing, industrial chocolate manufacturing, the packaged foods business - where a few acquisitions are in the pipeline, said Mr Verghese. Olam will make these investments using its tested approach: by making acquisitions that are bite-sized, taking up just 3-4 per cent of its market value. This amounts to some US$200-300 million per acquisition.

'We generally don't do large, company transformation deals. We follow a string of pearls kind of approach so that if one of those transactions or acquisitions go wrong, we are not risking the whole company. And that has been the track record. It has been a very successful model.'

Still, he left the door open to large transformation mergers and acquisitions. Referring to Olam's merger talks with French commodities firm Louis Dreyfus Commodities (LDC) that ultimately petered out, Mr Verghese said: 'While we considered the Louis Dreyfus merger, that is an exception. That is not the norm.

How do you compute your net worth?

Generally, we compute Net Worth = Assets - Liabilities

Generally and globally accepted standard of computation of assets is to exclude your residential home (however, you can choose of your properties and designate it as residential if you have more than one)

I am more conservative and aware that some assets seem to be moving away from my reach e.g. CPF SA and MA as Government likes to put its strong hand in them.  I might as well exclude them as assets and treat them like bonus.

My Net Worth = Assets - Liabilities   (excluding CPF SA and MA)

Currently, I have zero liabilities.

Sunday, 19 June 2011

How good are you at accumulating losses?

Borrow the idea from La Papillion


** "BIAS" is a special feature in my blog where I get to say whatever I want with scant regards for your feelings. I'm not politically correct in this feature, so go ahead, judge me."

Brolp's article on How good are you at accumulating wealth? gives me an idea to be naughty with a BIAS post.

How good are you at accumulating losses?

  1. Keep turning your losing short-term trades into long-term investment.
  2. Keep averaging down on your losing positions.
and then one day you realized you are good at accumulating losses.

Is it too easy to be a forex trainer?

Borrow the idea from La Papillion


** "BIAS" is a special feature in my blog where I get to say whatever I want with scant regards for your feelings. I'm not politically correct in this feature, so go ahead, judge me."

Read? Trading Courses – Does it work?

Yours Letters, thesundaytimes June 19,2011

Jaya Prakash wrote a letter on that subject.

I may like to change the subject a bit - Is it too easy to be forex or investment trainer?

Every Gurus claimed that they have made millions in investing or trading; but I haven't seen any of these Gurus putting up an audited claims to such results.

What is MAS doing? They should step in to regulate and accredit these trainers.

BTW, If the Gurus are so good and know how to teach people how to make easy money from the market. Why don't they conduct Kindness Draw every month to pick a few lucky fellows and then give them investing tips and help them to make some money. Every lucky fellow is entitled to only one chance.

What you think?

Help me! I am still losing money in my Investment Quadrant (6)

Read? Help me! I am still losing money in my Investment Quadrant (5)

What do I expect to see from some not-so-successful retail investor's portfolio?

I don't be surprised to see that their top losers are also their top holdings. Why?

Probably, They love to play Winning the Loser's Game and the losses became too huge and too painful and emotional to cut losses. They may have little choice but start fooling themselves into getting Discounts and taking Pain Killers

One way to help yourself is to stop playing "Winning the Loser's Game"; but can you really stop it?

Average Down or Pyramid Up? (2)

Read? Average Down or Pyramid Up?

Like it or not. Investing in the stock market is still a Game of Strategy. The ones who have better strategies that are closer to their heart will be most likely to reach their Investing Goals.

Winning the Loser's Game

When the stock market provides you the opportunity to average down; it is telling you that you are on a losing game. What is your strategy in this game plan by Average Down? Are you are trying to Win the Loser's Game?

Winning the Winner's Game


You spotted the opportunity in the market to win it bigger. You pyramid it up and raise the average cost in a winning game. When you are trying to win in the Winner's Game you will have margin of safety to exit when the market has proven you wrong. You may finally choose to leave the game with no loss or some profit.

Conclusion

There is No absolutely right or wrong but Only belief or bias. So what did you believe or bias?

Saturday, 18 June 2011

Small retail investors so excited over SCB


For the past few weeks, there was so much excitement at Singapore No 1 investment cbox over SCB who is so kind to level the playing field for spider monkeys with no minimum commission brokerage.

Spider monkeys can now swing from tree to tree to pluck coconuts here and there at very low cost. Since these coconuts can be plucked at very low cost why worry whether the coconut is green, yellow or brown. No problem, just try one coconut at a time.

In investing, I have seen many successful investors learning their lesson from their most painful and unforgettable lesson of big losses before they became wiser.

Small losses here and there will not teach the spider monkeys the truth of investing. There will not be enough pain to hit them harder and make them learn from the painful lessons and become wiser in investing.

I think there is some similarity between swinging spider monkey and the boiled frog.

The Boiled Frog
 
They say that if you put a frog into a pot of boiling water, it will leap out right away to escape the danger. 


But, if you put a frog in a kettle that is filled with water that is cool and pleasant,
and then you gradually heat the kettle until it starts boiling, the frog will not become aware of the threat until it is too late.


The moral of the story ..

If you can't feel the great pain immediately and learn from it; you may be killed slowly without even knowing why.

STI vs. DOW since Jan 2009


DOW is still the Big Brother!

Stock Dividends - Sir, how do you want it to be done? Raw, medium or well done?

Read? High Dividend Yield Stocks? (10)

When you received your stock dividends, how do you want it to be done? Raw, medium or well done?

The way you treat it may determine how likely you are going to hold or sell.

Discount

When you received your stock dividend, you mentally discount your holding cost against the dividend received. It lowers your holding cost. So shiok! You may  even tell your wife. "Honey, it is cheaper now."

Every year it will become cheaper after receiving more dividends Why sell? Since it is getting cheaper soon. 

Pain Killer

Wah, so shiok! My dividend is coming in July. What paper losses? Never mind le. Oh ya! SCB account will be ready in end Jun so no problem to reinvest the dividend for compounding "interests" - Eight Wonder of The World.

After receiving so many doses of pain killers, pain no more liao.

Returns on Capital

You add the stock dividend in your portfolio P/L statement as part of the total realized gain. You are more concern on XIRR or CAGR of your portfolio. You could be one of those retail investors who are actively managing their portfolio and trying to optimize their XIRR or CAGR.

Sir, how do you want it to be done? Raw, medium or well done?

Friday, 17 June 2011

Noble

I bought @ $1.85
DL @ $1.85

Bought Noble @ $1.85

Read? Last transaction on Noble

Doggie needs coffee. Me too!

Just For Laugh ....

This is what I saw at the coffeeshop ...

An old lady was busy talking on her mobile phone and her doggie was sitting on top of the plastic chair and looking towards the direction  at me? (looking at handsome old uncle, is it?)

The coffee mei mei  came to the table and served the glass of coffee at the table. Then I realized the doggie has turned its back and looking at the old lady while she was still talking on her phone.

I heard the doggie barked. After a little while, another a bark and then another bark.

The old lady ended her talk over the phone and took out a small saucer and poured some coffee into it and let the doggie drank some coffee.

Now I know why the doggie barked three times. "Bloody hell, where is my coffee and stop talking."

Bought Olam @ $2.52

Read? Last transaction on Olam

Thursday, 16 June 2011

How do you measure Opportunity Cost?

We often hear people saying that there is opportunity cost for not cutting losses or pay off your debts too early. So how do we really measure opportunity? Anyone?


CAGR?


I have one bank account that is dedicated to all stock transactions including cash flow from stock dividends. In this sense, I know every dollar and cent in and out of this account. So it is either money in the bank or stocks in the market.

Then, what is my opportunity cost between cash in the bank and stocks in the market?

  1. When I sold the stock, the proceed of the sales will back go into the bank to earn low interests.
  2. When I bought stock, the money moves from bank to the stock market and its value goes up and down according to market conditions.
  3. When I receive stock dividend, it will earn low interests until I re-invest it back to the stock market.
I measure CAGR of my portfolio and plot its daily value as Line Graph. (Some may use XIRR ; but I use CAGR since I rarely add capital so CAGR works well for me)


So where is my opportunity cost? Does opportunity cost really exist?

Read? Other articles related to "Measuring"

Noble

Wednesday, 15 June 2011

What is good Financial Planning?

Just For Thinking

The Golden Formula for a good financial planning

Good Financial Planning = Saving + Insurance + Investment

Read? Saving, Life Insurance and Investing - 2nd Revisit

The degree of importance for these three components: saving, insurance and investment will change during our life time.

Saving

Once our kids are working and independent, do we really need to have to save more? We will need to remind ourselves that we only LIVE ONCE so we should be spending our money on ourselves. Right?

Insurance

Insurance is actually a hedging tool to hedge against human asset and human liability. Once we don't need to support any dependents, we don't need to hedge against human asset; but we still need to hedge against human liability. It has become even important when we are older and a bigger medical insurance coverage is needed. Basically, it is decreasing the hedge in human asset but increasing the hedge for human liability.

Investment

Investment strategy should also change. When we are retired, wealth preservation and maintaining cash flow to support our preferred lifestyle could be the right investing goal.

Most S'poreans expect to have less than S$150,000 in CPF on retirement

SINGAPORE : People in Singapore who plan for their retirement will have about S$153,000 in retirement savings and investments, according to a survey by HSBC.


Those who do not plan - 28 per cent of individuals - will retire with a smaller amount of about S$80,000.

The Future of Retirement survey said about 76 per cent of those with a retirement plan rely on life insurance to finance their retirement.

Not surprisingly, these people also have a more positive outlook and fewer worries about retirement.

However, 65 per cent are concerned about the prospect of unforeseen events derailing their retirement plans.

The 2011 report, "The Power of Planning", is the sixth in a series and is based on interviews with more than 17,000 people in 17 countries.

The Singapore report was based on views of 1,046 respondents from the republic.

Finances are at the top of most Singaporean's minds when it comes to retirement - 55 per cent cited concerns about the need for more savings as people are living longer.

Furthermore, 29 per cent - the highest in Asia - were also concerned about costs of caring for older parents.

The majority of Singaporeans - 65 per cent - expect their CPF lump sum to be below S$150,000 when they retire.

According to the study, Singaporeans estimate that they will need an average monthly retirement income of S$3,000.

Commenting on how Singaporeans can save for their retirement nest egg, CEO of HSBC Insurance, Walter de Oude, said if a 65-year-old has S$150,000 in his CPF account, he can expect to receive about S$1,400 every month from CPF Life.

In order to receive a monthly income of S$3,000 during retirement, he will have to supplement his CPF savings with another investment.



- CNA/al

Tuesday, 14 June 2011

Two Big Things for married men with kids only

Just For Thinking ....

You are married with kids and worse you are SINK (Single Income aNd Kids). You have to carry two Big Things on your shoulder every morning when you wake up.

  1. Your monthly mortgage payment
  2. Your Kids university education fund
What a huge relief when one day I discovered that I don't have to carry (1) on my shoulder anymore and then on another day I have dropped (2). Completely free from burden on my shoulder with no more Big Thing on my shoulder as SINKing parent. Finally, it is all over. Phew!

Monday, 13 June 2011

Keppel to build new generation accommodation semi worth US$260 million for Floatel

Singapore, 13 June 2011 - Keppel FELS Limited (Keppel FELS) has been awarded a
contract worth about US$260 million by returning customer, Floatel International Ltd
(Floatel), to build a new generation accommodation semisubmersible (semi) for delivery
in 1Q 2014.

This new rig developed by Keppel O&M’s Deepwater Technology Group, will be built to
the SSAU4000NG design with Dynamic Positioning (DP) 3 capability. It marks Keppel
FELS’ third accommodation semi project with Floatel, after the delivery of Floatel
Reliance (SSAUTM 3600 with DP2) and Floatel Superior (DSSTM 20NS with DP3) last year.

The SSAU4000NG is an enhancement of the proven SSAUTM 3600 design, with
improved capability and operability. It meets the stringent UK HSE requirements to work
in the UK sector of the North Sea as well as the Gulf of Mexico, Brazil and Western
Australia.

Equipped with state of the art accommodation and recreational facilities, the
SSAU4000NG provides increased comfort for the 500 persons it can accommodate in
one-man and two-man cabins.

Mr Peter Jacobssen, Chief Executive Officer of Floatel International Ltd said, “What
Keppel FELS has built for us previously have been well received by the market. Both
units are working successfully in their respective fields. We have ordered this third unit as we continue to see strong demand for such highly capable accommodation vessels, and
we believe we are well positioned to strengthen our niche offering in this area.

“As we grow our fleet of next generation accommodation semis to meet the needs of the
market, Keppel FELS is the ideal partner for us in terms of reliability and quality. Their
suite of proprietary designs has proven to be cost effective solutions for offshore
accommodation and we believe the SSAU4000NG will be just as successful as her
predecessors.”

Featuring the latest technology such as DP3 and enhanced Station-Keeping, the
SSAU4000NG is capable of operating alongside fixed platforms, floating platforms and
Floating Production Storage and Offloading Vessels, with a full complement of deck
cranes and fire fighting capabilities.

Mr Wong Kok Seng, Managing Director of Keppel FELS said, “We are pleased that
Floatel has entrusted us to build their third accommodation semi to our proprietary design.

As more E&P activities move into deeper waters and harsher environments, the
SSAU4000NG with its new and improved features is customised to meet these
challenges.


“We have built up a good track record with Floatel, having delivered Floatel Reliance and
Floatel Superior to their satisfaction. This contract reinforces our win-win partnership and we look forward to provide yet another quality vessel to Floatel safely, on time and within budget.”

Floating accommodation platforms are needed to provide additional living quarters for drilling and production personnel. Such support is required during hook-up and commissioning in the development phase, for maintenance and upgrading during the production phase, as well as for decommissioning.

Well-timed with market demand, the two Floatel rigs delivered in 2010 have been
chartered for work - Floatel Reliance to Petrobras for five years in Brazil’s Campos Basin
and Floatel Superior to Statoil in Norway’s Oseberg field.

Keppel FELS’ track record for designing and building accommodation semis also includes
the delivery of Prosafe’s Safe Concordia in 2005. Safe Concordia, which can accommodate 400 persons, has been chartered to Petrobras for work in Brazil.

Sunday, 12 June 2011

Biosensors acquiring the remaining 50% interest in JWMS

Weigao becoming a major shareholder of Biosensors

 
12 June 2011 ‐ Biosensors International Group, Ltd. (“Biosensors”) and Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Company Limited (“Weigao”) announced the restructuring of the shareholding in JW Medical Systems Ltd (“JWMS”) whereby Biosensors acquires the remaining 50% of JWMS from Weigao. After completing this transaction, JWMS will be a wholly-owned subsidiary of Biosensors.

Subject to the obtaining of the required approvals, the purchase consideration (the “Purchase Consideration”) for Weigao shall comprise: (i) a cash payment of S$160,000,000; (ii) the issuance to Weigao of 260,000,000 new ordinary shares of Biosensors, and; (iii) the issuance to Weigao of US$120,043,000 principal amount of 4% convertible notes due 2014 from Biosensors.

After the completion of this transaction, Weigao will be a strategic shareholder of Biosensors and will participate in Biosensors’ development through its membership in Biosensors’ board.

Mr. Yoh-Chie Lu, Chairman of Biosensors said, “Since commercialization of its drug-eluting stents (“DES”) in early 2006, JWMS has become one of the top suppliers of the local DES market in China. This acquisition demonstrates a joint dedication between Biosensors and Weigao to foster stronger relationships as long-term strategic partners. The market for DES continues to grow rapidly in China and obtaining full ownership of JWMS,

Biosensors will instantaneously become a stronger player in this vital market. At the same time, with Weigao as a strategic shareholder of Biosensors and our unique proprietary drug and polymer technologies, we are set to become a major DES supplier in China for many years to come.“

“As one of the largest economy in the world, China presents a fastest growing market for companies with innovative technologies and operational excellence.” Mr. Chen Xue Li, Chairman of Weigao said, “Being a key shareholder of Biosensors, we are committed to make Biosensors the premier medical technology company in China and the global market.”

Saturday, 11 June 2011

Self-control applies to trading too

Most individuals fall prey to emotions which can trigger the most destructive impulses in terms of fear and greed.

By Genevieve Cua


THEWEALTHIER you are, the more likely you are to over-trade on your assets, and to feel that you need more self-control. The silver lining is that as you get older, the calmer you are likely to become, and the more satisfied with your financial situation.

Barclays Wealth's latest survey of wealthy individuals throws up insights on the issue of financial self-control. This trait is undoubtedly a plus in the effort to grow and preserve one's wealth, but it is also elusive. Most individuals fall prey to emotions which can trigger the most destructive impulses in terms of fear and greed.

The survey of 2000 individuals, Risks and Rules: The Role of Control in Financial Decision Making, was released earlier this week. As it turns out, Asia's wealthy may have the most issues on self control. The region shows up prominently among the top five countries on questions that broadly reflect a penchant for risk taking.

For instance, on the belief that you have to buy and sell often to do well in markets, Malaysia, India and Hong Kong respondents were among the top five. On the statement that the respondent attempts to strategically time the markets, Malaysia and Taiwan were among the top five.

Asia Pacific respondents accounted for about a quarter of those polled. All respondents have wealth of at least one million pounds (S$2 million).

The study looks into what it calls the 'trading paradox' - that is, that those who believe in the need to trade frequently to make money also believe they trade too much. Over-active trading could make investors vulnerable to a number of biases. One is what is technically called 'narrow framing', or the failure to see the big picture. The study says that this could lead investors, for instance, to make new investments that cancel out existing ones, or decline new opportunities that look risky on their own, but may be a good addition to the overall portfolio.

A second bias is 'short-termism' which bases decisions on short time periods, when what matters is to grow wealth over a long term. For example, the MSCI World historically posts losses in about 40 per cent of the time in any given month. But over a one-year period, the probability of loss drops to 25 per cent, then to 19 per cent over five years and 7 per cent over 10 years.

The findings for Singapore were consistent with trading paradox - 41 per cent believe they have to trade frequently to make money. But at the same time, almost half wish they had more control over their financial behaviour.

While 47 per cent of Singaporeans say they are willing to bear high levels of risk to achieve high returns, 61 per cent are actually concerned with preventing bad things happening. The latter trait is based on psychological research on the motivation for doing things - either to make good things happen or to prevent bad things happening.

Says Barclays in its report: 'On the face of it, you might think that those who were trading more actively would be more experienced, sophisticated and able to control themselves, but that seems not to be the case - Trading becomes addictive. So one basic problem is that investors may feel they need to engage in active trading but they cannot then control how much they do it.'

As with other academic studies, the survey found that men tended to trade more than they should, compared to women. But it also found that having more money to trade leads one to trade too much - globally 20 per cent of those in the highest net worth category of over £pounds;10 million say they trade more than they should, compared to 14 per cent in the next wealth segment of £pounds;2-9.9 million.

Barclays also observed an increase in risk tolerance as wealth or income grows. While it might seem that greater risk taking leads to greater wealth opportunities, Barclays has this caveat: 'Our survey of high net worth individuals has picked those who risked and won; there are plenty of risk takers who have not been as astute or fortunate. In addition, for others, it may be that having a greater reserve of wealth or income creates a safety buffer which encourages risk taking.'

There are a number of self control strategies that the wealthy do use: One is to purposefully limit your options by purchasing illiquid investments. This dampens the urge to sell investments when the market is falling. A second is to use rules - spending out of income, for instance, but not capital.

The study found that the self control strategies most frequently used were the setting of deadlines to avoid procrastination; imposing a cooling off period or a waiting period before acting on a decision; and using a personal coach or adviser.

The strategies, says Barclays, have visible benefits. Those surveyed believe the strategies were effective; the most effective was the practice of setting deadlines. But there were also 'hidden benefits' as '. . . These strategies are associated with increased financial satisfaction. Not only do strategies bring this hidden benefit emotionally, (the study) also found that the strategies were associated with higher wealth levels'.

The survey found that the group with the highest strategy usage has a net worth 12 per cent higher than the group with the lowest strategy usage.

Financial advisers clearly have a role to play in guiding clients' expectations on markets and returns, and helping to temper emotional trading.

The study said advisers should make the effort to understand 'the financial personalities and objectives of their clients in order to best advise them on how to tackle market challenges, and the challenges that lie within'.

Fed Will Buy $50 Billion of Treasurys in Final QE2 Push

By: Reuters


The flood of Federal Reserve money that has supported Wall Street and the rest of the U.S. economy for two and a half years will shrink to a trickle with the conclusion of the Fed's bond purchases announced Friday.

The Fed said it will buy $50 billion of Treasurys, the final series of government bond purchases that marks the last phase of the $600 billion program it launched in November 2010 to prevent another recession.

As a result, once the purchases are concluded June 30, the financial sector will receive only a fraction of the roughly $100 billion a month in easy money it has been getting from the Fed.

The conclusion of the Fed's bond-buying program, known as "Quantitative Easing 2," does not mean the stimulus will come to a complete stop. The Fed will reinvest maturing securities, mainly mortgage-related debt, which analysts predict will run at $12 billion to $16 billion per month.

While still a lot of money, it is a huge step down from stimulus levels at the height of the buying campaign, dubbed by markets as QE2 because it was the second round of Fed asset-buying in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.

A key aim of QE2 was to hold down long-term interest rates to stimulate investment in capital equipment and risky assets.

It came almost eight months after the Fed's first round of bond purchases, primarily in mortgage-related securities.

The initial bout of quantitative easing, worth $1.73 trillion, began in December 2008 and ended in March 2010. It was created to stabilize the housing sector, which was the epicenter of the financial turmoil and has yet to show signs of recovery.

The Treasury bond component of the first round of purchases totaled $300 billion, from March to October 2009.

The Fed's buying assets has been controversial from the start. Critics say it is tantamount to printing money, and it has been credited with fueling a stock market rally but blamed for a surge in oil and food prices.

The end of QE2 has been well-flagged. The Fed said at the outset it would run until the end of June 2011.

Still, investors expect stocks, bonds, gold and the euro to fall after it ends, according to a Reuters poll of 64 analysts and fund managers last month.

Average Down or Pyramid Up?

Read? Following someone investing idea? (3)

Serious thinking. Respect the market. It is always right; and most likely you are wrong most of the time if your stocks are moving against you.The only problem you have in your mind is that the market is saying you are wrong; but you think they are wrong. Bo pian.

Learn and train your mind harder - Let it GO. Let it BE. But, don't Average Down.

When you Average Down

You are taking on higher and higher risk with a bigger and bigger holding to prove that you are still RIGHT either in your TA, FA or BOTH and the market with lots of smart investors and traders are WRONG.

So what happens now?

If you are RIGHT, you are just trying to break even first with a lower average cost i.e. trying to win back in the same manner that you have lost it.

If you are WRONG again, you have dug a bigger hole for yourself. Where is your risk control management?

When you Pyramid Up

In term of risk management, it is totally different.

If you are still right, you keep making more and more money from the market.

If unfortunately, the market is right and you are proven wrong; you can still exit the entire holding with little or no losses or even at some profit.

Risks before Profit

Always learn to train your investing mind harder to think risks before profit. I have good reason to be BIAS as I have learned the lesson through great pains. If you want to learn it through same way. Just do it lor. LOL


BTW, I have a few other BIAS too. You know. right?
Think risks before profit and sleep soundly.

Friday, 10 June 2011

Keppel lands Floatel hat-trick

Singapore-based offshore builder Keppel Fels has secured its third semi-submersible accommodation newbuild contract from Floatel International with a $283 million turnkey award.


Steve Marshall 10 June 2011 08:29 GMT

The latest unit, which is scheduled for delivery in the first quarter of 2014, follows construction of the Floatel Superior and Floatel Reliance units that were delivered by the yard last year.

The new unit will be built to Keppel’s SSAU4000NG design, an enhancement of the proven SSAUTM 3600 design used for the Floatel Reliance, with capability of working in deeper water and harsh environments.

It will meet stringent UK health and safety requirements for work in the British sector of the North Sea as well as in the Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, West Africa and Western Australia, Floatel said in a statement.

The dynamically positioned semisub will have accommodation for 500 people and will give Floatel, a relative newcomer to the accommodation market, a fleet of three such units.

Floatel Superior is currently working for Statoil in the North Sea while Floatel Reliance started a five-year charter for Petrobras off Brazil in January.

Published: 10 June 2011 08:29 GMT
Last updated: 10 June 2011 08:37

REITs - Revisting a collection of articles

Borrowing the idea from LP ** "BIAS" is a special feature in my blog where I get to say whatever I want with scant regards for your feelings. I'm not politically correct in this feature, so go ahead, judge me."

Advisory or Warning!!!



If you are a strong believer in REITs, stop reading now as it may raise your blood pressure in reading bullshits.

Read? More articles on REITs

Thursday, 9 June 2011

Sharp fall in property prices "possible"

SINGAPORE: Minister for National Development Khaw Boon Wan has sounded an alert on a possible sharp fall in property prices.


Writing on his blog, Mr Khaw said things can suddenly go very wrong.

He pointed out a strong supply of housing units is coming up.

About 35,000 private homes have already been sold.

Another 45,000 units are also waiting to be built and sold.

Mr Khaw warned a weak global economy could turn away foreign buyers who make up about 16 per cent of all buyers of private properties.

Rental demand can also fall quickly since many Singaporeans also buy properties to lease to foreigners.

He said the impact of external shocks can be serious if the drop in demand happens when there's a substantial increase in supply.

He also said cost of borrowing and repayment must go up and households must factor this in.

Mr Khaw advised investors to bear these in mind before signing up for new houses.

-CNA/wk

Noble Group trumps Exxaro bid for Australia's Territory



MELBOURNE - Shares of Australian iron ore miner Territory Resources soared as much as 8.5 per cent on Thursday after commodities firm Noble Group made a A$132.6 million (US$140.8 million) bid, trumping an offer from South African miner Exxaro.

The offer of A$0.50 a share from Hong Kong-based Noble Group, which already owns 30 per cent of Territory, is 9 per cent better than Exxaro's bid and 6 per cent above Territory's last closing price.
'By making this offer to secure our holding in Territory, we aim to ensure that its attention on growth will not in future run the risk of being deflected by any more opportunistic corporate actions,' Noble said.

Territory Resources had no immediate comment.

At 0101 GMT, its shares traded up 8.5 per cent at A$0.51 per share.

Exxaro, one of South Africa's largest coal miners, launched its offer last month as part of a plan to buy several iron ore asset and eventually produce 10 million tonnes a year of the steel-making ingredient.
Analysts said Exxaro's bid, pitched at a 64 per cent premium to Territory's share price at the time, was expensive given the short three-to-five-year life span of Territory's mine in Australia's Northern Territory.


Noble is being advised by Investec. Exxaro is being advised by RMB Corporate Finance, a unit of South Africa's FristRand and Greenhill Caliburn. Azure Capital is advising Territory. -- REUTERS
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