As from April 2013 my Journey in Investing is to create Retirement Income for Life till 80 years old for two over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

Welcome to Ministry of Wealth!

This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

It is here where I share with you how I did it! FREE Education in stock market wisdom.

Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down



Important Notice and Attention: If you are looking for such ideas; here is the wrong blog to visit.

Value Investing
Dividend/Income Investing
Technical Analysis and Charting
Stock Tips

Thursday, 31 May 2012

Is your stock a tennis ball or an egg?

 Just For Laugh ...

Cabot has the engaging habit of philosophizing about the patterns it sees in stock performances. It writes:

“The key to finding winners is to look for stocks that bounce back quickly; we call those tennis balls, as they spring back to life after hitting the floor. Conversely, it’s usually best to avoid the names that can’t get off their knees even after the market lifts its head, as their inability to bounce resembles eggs that have splattered on the floor.”

Tuesday, 29 May 2012

Spanish bond risk premium widens to record

PARIS - The risk premium which Spain must pay to borrow compared with benchmark German borrowing rates rose to a record 5.156 percentage points in mid-day trading on Tuesday on tension over Spanish banks.

The interest rate which Spain must pay to borrow for 10 years, as indicated by trading in bonds on the secondary market, was nearly 6.5 per cent. But the German 10-year rate, the lowest in the eurozone, fell to a record low point. -- AFP

Is 2012 Bear 2.0 coming??? (2)

Read? Is 2012 Bear 2.0 coming???

"The general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple before the battle is fought. The general who loses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand. Thus do many calculations lead to victory, and few calculations to defeat; how much more no calculation at all! It is by attention to this point that I can foresee who is likely to win or lose."  - Sun Tze


The general doesn't fight the last war!!!

In the stock market, it is either win or lose.

What if Uncle8888 is wrong and the Bull came?












What's wrong in putting the 4th Smiling Green Face up there?

Anyone think it is wrong????

What if Uncle8888 is right and the Bear came?














Olam International invests US$240m in Brazil sugar mill


Olam International Limited on Tuesday said it is investing US$240 million in its first sugar milling asset in Brazil.

"Olam's strategic plan for the sugar business is to build a configuration of milling assets in large sugar producing countries that have a comparative cost advantage, and invest in refining assets in large deficit-prone, consuming countries with regulated, structurally inefficient markets that offer the potential to extract high economic rents," the company said.

It is acquiring Usina Acucareira Passos SA (UAP) for 255 million Brazilian Real (US$128.8 million) and investing an additional capital expenditure of US$111.5 million over the next five years to improve its agricultural and industrial capacity and efficiency.

UAP owns and operates a sugar mill located in Passos within the state of Minas Gerais in Brazil's Centre South, with a cane crushing capacity of 1.75 million metric tonnes per annum with an output capacity of up to 200,000 metric tonnes of sugar per year.

BIOSENSORS REPORTS CONTINUED STRONG SALES AND RECORD PROFITS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF FISCAL YEAR 2012

Q4 FY12 Highlights:

  • Robust total revenue of US$88.2 million, representing 98% year-on-year growth
  • Terumo Corporation (“Terumo”), Biosensors’ licensing partner, continued strong momentum in the sales of its Nobori drug-eluting stent (“DES”), resulting in a 378% year-on-year increase in Biosensors’ licensing and royalties revenue to US$22.8 million
  • Net profit excluding exceptional items increased 72% year-on-year to US$28.6 million
  • Generated operating cash flow of US$32.4 million in Q4 FY12, a 143% increase from a year ago
FY12 Full Year Highlights:

  • Total revenue of US$292.1 million, an 87% growth, exceeding the Company’s financial guidance of 70% – 80% year-on-year growth
  • Terumo’s strong revenue growth for its Nobori DES contributed to a 370% year-on-year increase in Biosensors’ total licensing revenue to US$80.8 million in FY12
  •  FY12 net profit excluding exceptional items increased 92% year-on-year to US$101 million
  • Generated operating cash flow of US$81.0 million in FY12, a 192% increase from a year ago
  • Successfully consolidated JW Medical Systems Ltd. (“JWMS”) in early October 2011 and included its half-year financial results

Monday, 28 May 2012

Sembcorp's JV completes US$1b acceptance tests for Oman plant


Sembcorp Industries on Monday said its joint venture company, Sembcorp Salalah Power and Water Company, has successfully completed the acceptance tests for its US$1 billion Salalah Independent Water and Power Plant (Salalah IWPP) in Oman.

The Salalah IWPP consists of a gas-fired power plant with a total gross capacity of 490 megawatts and a seawater desalination plant with a total water production capacity of 15 million imperial gallons (69,000 cubic metres) per day.

It is the largest and most energy-efficient power and water plant in Dhofar in southern Oman, and is expected to play a major role in meeting the growing power and water demand of this region.

The facility will provide power and water under a 15-year power and water purchase agreement with the Oman Power and Water Procurement Company, which is wholly-owned by the Government of Oman.

Sunday, 27 May 2012

Baby and Adult Pamper???

Just For Laugh ....

What is the difference between baby and adult pamper?

Baby pamper

When your baby wears a baby pamper, both parents and baby also happy. It keeps the baby dry and made the life of parents easier.

Adult pamper

Try making a dementia adult wearing an adult pamper. Guess what frequently can happen?


It becomes disposable pamper!!! It is totally different from a baby wearing pamper.

Why???





Is 2012 Bear 2.0 coming???

 Just For Thinking ...


” If you have a worry problem, do these three things: 1. Ask yourself: “What is the worst that can possibly happen?” 2. Prepare to accept it if you have to. 3. Then calmly proceed to improve on the worst.” (Carnegie 49)

When we step into the first week of Jun2012, we may be able to know from the marketing agents whether 2012 Bear 2.0 is ready for worldwide distribution.


Good advice from Dale Carnegie. Ask these three questions and stop worrying.
 
Q1: Ask yourself: “What is the worst that can possibly happen?”


What will happen to my portfolio if I get hit again like 2008/09?

 


I did stock prices crash simulation on my portfolio and it seems to be better off than Mar 2009 low.




 Q2: Prepare to accept it if you have to.

That is the reason I will not be adding more stocks into my portfolio any sooner since I have prepared to accept the worst as it is.


Q3. Then calmly proceed to improve on the worst.”


I have taken back close to 98% of my invested capital since 2003 as war-chest for 2012 Bear 2.0 so I am unlikely to be caught naked like what happened in 2008/09.





BTW, for your investment decision, have you similarly ask yourself these three questions and how you answer them?

 

Saturday, 26 May 2012

Spanish Lender Seeks 19 Billion Euros; Ratings Cut on 5 Banks

Spain’s banking crisis worsened Friday as the board of Bankia, the country’s biggest mortgage lender, warned that it would need an additional 19 billion euros ($23.88 billion), far beyond what the government estimated when it seized the bank and its portfolio of delinquent real estate loans.

The government is trying to head off a collapse of the bank, which could threaten the Spanish banking industry and reverberate through the financial centers of Europe and beyond. The fear is that it will not have the money to save its banks, and their 1 trillion euros, or $1.25 trillion, in deposits, and will need a rescue by the rest of Europe — even as Brussels and Frankfurt are struggling to resolve Greece’s debt debacle.
Bankia’s announcement came as Standard & Poor’s, the credit ratings agency, downgraded Bankia and two other banks, Banco Popular and Bankinter, to “junk” status and lowered the ratings of two other Spanish banks also staggered by mounting bad loans. A junk rating could make it even harder for Bankia to borrow its way out of trouble.


The rising fear now is that the recent steady trickle of deposits from Spain’s banks, which are suffering from the bursting of Spain’s real estate bubble, to institutions outside the country could eventually turn into the sort of bank run that almost brought the financial world to its knees after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
Spain’s debt crisis is also playing out on another front. As its banks shudder, heavily indebted regional governments are also running out of money. On Friday, the government of the Catalonia region warned that it might no longer be able to finance its debts and called on the central government for help. While other regions have also sounded budget alarms, Catalonia is the biggest so far; it represents nearly one-fifth of Spain’s economy.

The central government, facing its own mounting debt, may soon be in no position to provide help to either the banks or the regions. And with an economy in recession and unemployment at the highest level in the euro zone, Madrid is falling further behind in meeting the deficit-reduction targets it has agreed to with the European Union.

Some flat owners sitting on a goldmine???

ST, Saturday, May 26, 2012

Queenstown estimated profit: $420K
Punggol estimated profit: $330K

Did my ex-neighbor living one floor below me really strike a lottery by selling his goldmine?

Read? Did he strike a lottery by selling his goldmine?

Anyone believe that he really strike a lottery by selling his goldmine?

But, I think his banker will love him for the next 20 years of his life. 


Friday, 25 May 2012

Olam and Wilmar - Walau pattern sama sama leh!



Commodity Fund Managers were selling at strength???

BBs fear Sour Greeks???

Thursday, 24 May 2012

Olam - BBs still distributing???


Does XIRR over our investing time horizon say something about our portfolio performance?

Read? Why you need a return on your capital (investment) above inflation?

See example 1:


Do we need to generate consistent positive return on capital year-on-year to have good XIRR?

Not really. But we need to win bigger more often than we lose.

See example 2:


So what if you can consistently generate positive return every year but get hit by one Big Bear. Your XIRR will be in sorry state. Beware of Bear!!!!


BTW, anyone still doubting the usefulness of XIRR as a tool to measure our investing performance over market cycles?





Wednesday, 23 May 2012

Singapore's inflation rises to 5.4% in April

SINGAPORE: Singapore's inflation rate accelerated in April to 5.4 per cent.

The year-on-year increase in the consumer price index (CPI) is up from an increase of 5.2 per cent in March, figures from the Department of Statistics show.

Higher accommodation costs were the major contributor to the April increase.

Private road transport costs also continued to climb because of elevated COE prices, although they rose at a slower pace than in March.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore's (MAS) core inflation rate, which excludes accommodation and private road transport, fell in April to 2.7 per cent from 2.9 per cent the previous month. It attributed the decline to lower services and food inflation.

MAS reiterated its forecast for inflation to "remain elevated over the next few months, before easing gradually" in the second half of 2012.

The central bank forecasts CPI inflation at 3.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent for the year as a whole, and core inflation in the range of 2.5 per cent to 3.0 per cent.

The MAS said accommodation costs, which include imputed rentals on owner-occupied homes, will remain the biggest contributor to consumer inflation this year, "as leasing contracts continue to be renewed at rentals that are considerably higher than those under existing contracts, especially in the HDB segment".

"Car prices could also increase if CEO premiums rise further in response to tight CEO supply," the MAS statement said.

"In addition, wages and other costs will likely continue to pass through to consumer prices, albeit at a more moderate pace than that during early this year."

- CNA/wm

Tuesday, 22 May 2012

Work????

Just For Laugh ....

  1. We work for Employer.
  2. We work for Bank (Do you know you are really working for banks?)
  3. We work for Govt.
  4. Only Money work for us.
Die die must do well in 4!



Sunday, 20 May 2012

How much it cost to learn the reliability of Oversold indicator?

Just For Thinking ...

The truth is ...

Low can be lower. 

Oversold can remain oversold long enough that we are already broke!

I have paid for this expensive lesson in 2008 to believe in the reliability of Oversold indicator. The real low did come 4 months later in Mar 2009 after I gave up in 1 Nov 2008; by then I was almost broke!

Blame??? Pocket not deep enough???

Same as the failure of Long Term Capital. Pocket not deep enough??? Who has???


Olam: The day I sold this pillow stock!

Read? More on Pillow Stocks strategy???

Flexibility is the hallmark of a successful long-term investor.

To be fully sold is important even though it is FOC!

Read? I have sold this pillow stock: Olam too

Read? Market news on Olam

The way Capital Group Companies, Inc. ("CGC") was selling Olam shares made me nervous too. Sometime, it is better to regret then to be sorry. We have to observe BBs' action in the market as they have direct access to the Mgmt and will definitely know their vested companies better. Small retail investors can only attend AGM and thinking that they will know much by asking a few questions here and there.



Saturday, 19 May 2012

Portfolio riding market cycles of Bull and Bear






How bad will the portfolio value fall this time?



STI down -8.2% from its recent peak at 3,026 in 65 days?

Where is STI's Investor emotion in this cycle now?

Fear or depression???
 


Friday, 18 May 2012

Kep Corp : Falling below EMA 200!


Axxess™ Self-Expanding Bifurcation DES Shown to be Safe and Effective up to Four Years

Singapore, 18 May 2012 – New long-term data from the DIVERGE study, presented yesterday at EuroPCR 2012 by Dr. John Ormiston, showed that the use of the Axxess™ drug-eluting stent (DES) for the treatment of complex coronary bifurcation lesions resulted in low levels of both MACE (a composite of cardiac death, MI and ischemia-driven TLR) and VLST (Very Late Stent Thrombosis) over a four-year period. Axxess™ is a self-expanding bifurcation stent which releases Biolimus A9™ from an abluminal biodegradable polymer coating.

DIVERGE, a prospective, single-arm, multi-center study of 302 patients with de novo bifurcation lesions across 14 sites in Europe, Australia and New Zealand, is the largest study conducted to date with a DES specifically designed for treating coronary bifurcation lesions. Following implantation of Axxess, the side branch treatments were left at the operators’ discretion. Additional conventional sirolimus-eluting stents (SES) were placed in 21.7% of the distal parent and/or side branch vessels. In 64.7% of the cases both branches were treated with an additional SES.

At four years post-procedure, 96.7% of patients originally enrolled in the study (292) were available for follow-up. The cumulative rate of MACE was 18.5%. The occurrences of the individual components were 5.1% for cardiac death, 7.9% for myocardial infarction and 10.6% for ischemia-driven TLR.
There were only three cases (1.0%) of Academic Research Consortium (ARC)-defined definite VLST, all of which involved at least one SES: just one of these cases also involved Axxess. No VLST events were observed in Axxess patients between years three and four of the study.

"These long-term results from DIVERGE are important because of the frequent presentation of bifurcation lesions in our daily clinical practice," commented Principal Investigator Dr. Stefan Verheye, Antwerp Cardiovascular Institute, Belgium. "These types of lesions are associated with higher complication and restenosis rates compared to conventional lesions. The four-year results confirm the earlier results already presented, and strengthen the evidence that the Axxess stent is a safe and effective alternative for patients with certain bifurcation lesions."


The Axxess bifurcation DES consists of a conical-shaped self-expanding nitinol (nickel/titanium) stent platform, specifically designed to conform to the shape of the bifurcation anatomy. It has been tailored to reconstruct the bifurcation without creating a false carina (the ridge where the two vessels join), lowering the risk of uncovered struts at the flow divider. The stent is coated with a biodegradable polylactic acid (PLA) polymer that releases Biolimus A9™ (BA9™), an anti-restenotic drug designed by Biosensors specifically for use with DES. Both BA9 and the biodegradable polymer are vital components of the BioMatrix™ DES family, which has more published data to support its safety and efficacy than any other biodegradable polymer DES.

Biosensors received CE Mark approval for Axxess in April 2011, supported by the positive nine-month results from the DIVERGE trial, which were published in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology (JACC) in March 2009. These demonstrated low overall rates of MACE (7.6%), restenosis (0.7%) and late stent thrombosis (0.3%) in patients treated with Axxess.

Axxess is now available in most major markets worldwide.

Thursday, 17 May 2012

Noble, Olam and Wilmar

Noble, Olam, and Wilmar


 Are asset selling by Noble keeping it from falling like Olam and Wilmar???

Olam and Wilmar continue to fall!!!
Where is the support? 
I can't see it liao with the free charting from ChartNexus.



SembMarine's unit secures $130m worth of contracts


Sembcorp Marine on Thursday said its subsidiary, Sembawang Shipyard, has secured three major contracts totalling S$130 million.

The first contract, awarded by Sonangol Pesquisa e Producao SA (SNLPP) is for major repairs and upgrading of the 20 year old FSO Palanca.

Major work scope includes the renewal of the vessel's cargo piping system and pumps, tank blasting and coating, and cables renewal for the entire electrical system. The existing 30-men accommodation block will be redesigned and rebuilt to accommodate 60 men. The new accommodation block will include a new helideck to meet the vessel's operational requirements.

The vessel is expected to enter Sembawang Shipyard in August 2012 and, upon completion, will return to Palanca Terminal in offshore Angola.

Wednesday, 16 May 2012

Olam : Sky falling! Run first.






Two scary plunge with extremely high volume!!!

1. Olam accounting issue on 23 Feb 11

The shares had fallen 9.3 percent on Tuesday after the CLSA report, which noted multiple and sometimes significant differences between Olam's audited and unaudited statements in items such as capital expenditure, bank loans, interest paid and even cash balances.

-9.3% plunge and 120m shares changed hand on that day!!!

2. Olam Q2 profit fall 22.5%

-10.7% and 86m shares changed hand today!!!

Why BBs in Olam so panicky???






Olam - Drop until I don't have past years data to chart!


So how?

What's wrong with Olam?

Biosensors Announces First Large-Scale Study with BioFreedom™

Paris, France, 16 May 2012 – Plans for a ground-breaking new study involving BioFreedom™, the polymer-free drug-coated stent (DCS) from Biosensors, were announced yesterday at EuroPCR by Principal Investigator Dr Philip Urban, Hôpital de la Tour, Geneva.

LEADERS FREE is the world’s first prospective, randomised double-blind trial between a DCS and bare-metal stent (BMS), assessing the potential to deliver the anti-restenotic benefit of a drug-eluting stent with a shorter course of dual anti-platelet therapy (DAPT) in patients with high risk of bleeding.

“The results of this study will be particularly important as we hope they will show, for the first time, that a new type of stent can be more effective than a bare metal stent in a subgroup of patients not previously studied, yet just as safe”, commented Dr Urban. “Furthermore, this study could potentially change clinical practice by facilitating short DAPT duration in patients who may not be suitable for longer courses”.

LEADERS FREE will enrol approximately 2,500 patients from 60 sites across Europe, Asia and South America, with follow-up for two years. The trial will include patients identified as having a high risk of bleeding. Patients in both arms of the study will be prescribed only one month of DAPT, although they will take a single anti-platelet drug indefinitely.

The co-primary endpoints of the study will be: 1) non-inferiority of BioFreedom compared with BMS in terms of specific safety factors (cardiac death, myocardial infarction, and definite/probable stent thrombosis) after one year and; 2) superiority over BMS in terms of clinically-driven target lesion revascularization at 12 months.
Investigators anticipate enrolling the first patient within the next few months, and completing the process by early 2014. Primary endpoint data is likely to be presented during 2015.

BioFreedom represents the latest development in Biosensors’ stent technology, featuring a micro-structured abluminal surface which permits the controlled release of Biolimus A9™ (BA9™) without the use of a polymer. BA9 is a highly lipophilic antirestenotic drug developed by Biosensors specifically for use with stents.

Biosensors has applied for CE Mark approval for BioFreedom. As with its other products, the company is committed to building a significant body of clinical evidence before making BioFreedom commercially available. LEADERS FREE will represent a major contribution to the evidence surrounding the use of BioFreedom in patients with high risk of bleeding.

BioMatrix Flex™ Chosen for Largest Ever Clinical Trial Involving a Drug-Eluting Stent

Paris, France, 16 May 2012 – BioMatrix Flex™, Biosensors’ Biolimus A9™-eluting stent system with abluminal biodegradable polymer, has been chosen as the stent platform for GLOBAL LEADERS, the largest ever randomized clinical trial involving a drug-eluting stent (DES). The latest plans for the trial were announced yesterday at EuroPCR by Study Chairman Professor Patrick W. Serruys.

GLOBAL LEADERS, an investigator-driven trial supported by both Biosensors and AstraZeneca, a global biopharmaceutical company, aims to enroll around 16,000 patients from an “all-comers” population to compare the effectiveness of two different pharmaco-intervention strategies. All patients will receive BioMatrix Flex™, and then be randomized to either a study treatment strategy of one month’s acetyl salicylic acid (ASA), otherwise commonly known as aspirin, plus ticagrelor, a novel antiplatelet drug, followed by 23 month’s ticagrelor single-drug treatment; or a reference treatment strategy of 12 month’s DAPT (ASA plus ticagrelor for acute coronary syndrome patients; ASA plus clopidogrel for elective patients), followed by 12 month’s ASA single-drug treatment.

Recruitment is due to commence by the end of this year. Patients will be followed-up for two years.

“BioMatrix Flex is a logical choice as the stent platform for GLOBAL LEADERS”, commented Prof. Serruys. “Its abluminal biodegradable coating gives it the long-term safety profile of a bare-metal stent. In addition, the four-year results from the LEADERS trial have provided solid evidence of improved clinical outcomes versus the gold-standard first-generation sirolimus-eluting stent”.

GLOBAL LEADERS is being independently designed, implemented and analyzed by the study investigators, led by Professor Serruys (Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands), Professor Stephan Windecker (University Hospital, Bern, Switzerland) and Dr. Marco Valgimigli (University of Ferrara, Italy). This latest plan for the trial represents a significant evolution in the concept, protocol, management and support of GLOBAL LEADERS as originally conceived and announced at EuroPCR last year, which it supersedes and replaces.

“We are delighted that such a prestigious international group of physicians has independently chosen our DES for this landmark study”, added Dr. Jack Wang, CEO of Biosensors.


Tuesday, 15 May 2012

45% of CPF members who made investments suffered losses

 Just For Thinking ...

Createwealth8888: Before any newbies putting their CPF OA 2.5% almost risk free return at risks and thinking "long-term" investing will generate positive return. See the truth for yourself. It is best to leave your CPF OA investment fund alone until you can prove that you can consistently generate more than 2.5% return from your cash fund.

Read?  Resident wants ban on CPF cash for investments


Read?  Better markets give CPF investors a lift

SINGAPORE: About 45 per cent of CPF members who used their Ordinary Account savings to make investments from 1 October 2010 to 30 September 2011 suffered losses.
In his written reply to parliament on Monday, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam said the investment performance could have been adversely influenced by the volatility and overall decline of equity markets during this period.

Non-Constituency MP Lina Chiam had earlier asked how many of these losses were due to investments in high risk assets.

Mr Tharman explained the CPFIS provides members who are prepared to accept higher investment risks with the option of investing in potentially higher-yielding returns.

The risks lie in the performance of the funds or investment instruments that they choose, or in the broader investment climate.

The timing of CPF members' transactions can accentuate this risk.

The Finance Minister therefore advises members to exercise care and prudence when investing under the CPFIS.

Members who participate in the CPFIS should ensure they are equipped with the necessary investment knowledge, and be prepared to accept the risk of their investment choices.

If members are not confident of investing on their own or do not wish to risk capital losses on their CPF savings, they can continue keeping their money in their CPF accounts and earn the risk-free interest.

The Special, Medisave, and Retirement Account (SMRA) interest rates, in particular, are equal to the yield of the 10-year Singapore Government Securities (SGS) plus one per cent, which proxies for the yield of a long-term, 30Y SGS bond.

Members will also earn one per cent extra interest on the first S$60,000 of CPF balances.

As of the end of last year, about 900,000 CPF members, or 27 per cent of all CPF members maintained investments that were purchased using their CPF Ordinary Account (OA) savings.

About 470,000 CPF members, or 14 per cent of all CPF members, maintain investments that were purchased using their CPF savings from their Special Account (SA).

These proportions have remained roughly constant over the past five years.

- CNA/fa

Olam Q3 profit falls 22.5%


Olam International Limited on Tuesday reported a 22.5 per cent decrease in year-on-year earnings to $98.68 million for the fiscal third quarter ended March 31, 2012.

Turnover decreased 10.8 per cent to $4.23 billion from a year ago, on lower commodity prices across most products.

Sales volume increased 19.7 per cent to 2.7 million metric tons. However, per ton margin fell from S$136 to S$124.

Year to date, the group posted a 13.6 per cent decrease in net profit to $261.41 million, on revenue of $11.95 billion.

Monday, 14 May 2012

SIN : Sembcorp Industries: Utilities outperformed (BUY) : DMG

Utilities outperformed

Non-marine  earnings  beat  estimates. Sembcorp Industries (SCI)’s 1Q12 net
profit  rose  10%  YoY  to  S$177m,  and  accounted for 24% of our previous
estimate, driven by stronger contribution from the Utilities division (+61%
YoY).  Marine  earnings  were  lower  (-25% YoY) due to lower margins. 1Q12
outperformance  came from Singapore Utilities, which rose 30% QoQ, 61% YoY,
thanks to the additional gas sales, higher power spread and reserve margin.
We  raise  FY12-13F  EPS  estimates  by +3% and +5% respectively to reflect
higher-than-expected  earnings from the additional gas sales. Consequently,
we lift our TP marginally to S$6.30. Maintain BUY.

Utilities  now  the biggest contributor to Group’s bottomline. Contribution
from  the  Utilities  division to the Group’s net profit is at its highest,
accounting  from  56%  of  total  net profit compared 38% in FY11. 1Q12 net
profit  from  Utilities grew 12% QoQ, 61% YoY to S$99m. The stronger growth
was led by higher contribution in Singapore (+61% YoY) and the Rest of Asia
(+77%  YoY).  In Singapore, SCI gained from stronger gas sales, and reserve
margin.

Updates  on  Utilities  development:  (1) Projects on schedule. The Salalah
IWPP  in Oman is set to complete in May 2012. In Singapore, the IWTT plant,
Banyan  cogen  plant  and  the  multi-utilities  plant are 90%, 35% and 16%
completed  respectively.  SCI’s  power plant in India is 32% completed. (2)
SCI  previously  guided  that  its Singapore cogen plan is set to undergo a
major  maintenance  (six  to seven weeks downtime) program in 2012 but that
did not happen in the current quarter. (3) AES acquisition may be completed
in three months once they get approval from the Chinese government.

Valuation:  Raise TP to S$6.30. We value SCI using sum-of-the-parts (SOTP):
(1) DCF for Utilities division at 8% WACC; (2) stake in marine using our TP
for  Sembcorp Marine; (3) market value for Gallant Venture at S$0.29/share.
 

At our TP, the stock is valued at 15x FY12F P/E.



Createwealth8888:


Wait until neck so long for SCI to divest Gallant Venture.

 

Swiber booked nearly a 6% rise in profits during the first quarter

Net profit for the three months to 31 March was $12.5 million, compared to the $11.9 million booked during the first quarter of 2011.

The rise in profits came as revenues jumped 29% to $194.4 million which Swiber attributed to progressive revenue recognition from a number of contracts it was awarded in 2010 and 2011 in the South East Asia and South Asia regions.

“Our revenue growth bears testament of our strong execution, in terms of delivering on contracts won in the last two years,” Swiber chief executive Francis Wong said.
“Even so, we have not been resting on our laurels. We are pleased to have achieved new milestones in the first quarter of this year, both in terms of larger contracts secured, as well as breaking into new and vibrant markets, including the Gulf of Mexico and the Middle East.”

Wong also gave a positive outlook for the year ahead, expecting “robust” demand for offshore support services which he said the company was “well-positioned” to capture.
As of May, Swibers order book stood at about $1.2 billion which it expects to contribute to its results over the next two years.

Sunday, 13 May 2012

Noble Turns In Disappointing 1Q12 Results

Noble group said that its 1Q12 profit almost halved as it recorded losses from supply chain assets and a slow agriculture season. 1Q12 net profit stood at US$110.1 million, a 46 percent year-on-year drop despite an increase in revenue to US$22.8 billion. The stark difference in bottom and top line performance pointed to a shrinkage in net profit margin to 0.48 percent from 1.01 percent in 1Q12. Noble remarked that a significant portion of the decline came from a US$78 million plummet in supply chain asset income. Separately, it said that its current divestment of its stake in Australia’s Gloucester Coal is on track and it should be able to sell its Brazilian liquid bulk terminal and storage facility provider, Terminal Maritimo do Maranhao soon.

If You Still Don't Believe ILP is a Time Bomb? This time from the Horse's mouth!

Read? If You Still Don't Believe ILP is a Time Bomb? One more experience shared

invest, thesundyatime May 13, 2012. Pg 40

Risks of ILPs

Mr Bradnon Lam, senior vice-president and head of consumer investment and insurance products at DBS Bank, explained that as ILPs feed into funds, depending on the structure, some may not provide guaranteed cash values. Oftentimes, the final cash value will depend on the value of the fund that ILPs feed into.

Mr Lam also cautioned that investors have to bear the entire investment risk of the funds they buy into, unlike traditional insurance such as whole life and endowment, in which the insurer bears the investment risk for guaranteed benefits portion.

The value of non-guaranteed benefits will depend on the performance of the insurer's participating fund.

Insurance coverage rises with age. As regular premiums ILPs usually pay the insurance coverage charges by selling fund units, the liquidated amount for a fund that performs poorly may be enough to cover the rising insurance coverage costs.

In conclusion

Createwealth8888 strongly believe we should avoid ILPs at all costs as we are taking too much risks to entrust that the underlying feeding fund can perform well cross market cycles of bull and bear. During every bear market, more fund units are liquidated to pay for the rising insurance coverage charges as we age; and lesser and lesser fund units to benefits from bull market. It is really bloody dumb method of paying for rising insurance premiums as we age.

Don't ever get conned by your friendly insurance agent asking you to "invest" into ILPs. If you can't beat them, ask your friendly insurance agent to drop their comments here. Let me kick their asses!






Does attending investment course really help?

invest, May 13, 2012 thesundaytimes
me and my money section


This couple paid $2,800 each to attend investment course by a local Guru; but their best investment to date turned out to be their 16th-floor, 103 sq m resale four-room HDB in Paris Ris. Their worst investment to date is US stocks. So what is the moral of the story?

Does expensive investment course by Guru really help? 

Some common sense investment knowledge is not difficult to gain from reading books, surfing the Internet and by Google.

Real experience in the stock market can only be gained by slowly getting your own hand dirty. I don't think there is any short cut because the stock market is full of smart and savvy people who are trying to take our money too.




Western Doctor and Chinese Sinseh???

Just For Laugh ...

When we have serious illness and wish to consult both Western Doctor and Chinese Sinseh at the same time for treatment.

Guess what likely will happen ... (Actually, I have been there before) LOL!

When the Western Doctor thinks that we have successfully recovered from the illness; they will stop the periodic follow up and likely to give us one year review appointment. If after the one year review, when nothing arises from that review , our medical file will be closed. Case closed and no more paying medical expenses.

In the case of Sinseh, the "treatment" can be forever. Why?

Even though the Sinseh no longer dispenses the targeted herbal medicine at the illness since we have already recovered.The Sinseh will still ask us to go back every month for consultation to restore “Qi” in the body, strengthen the body and promote vitality. It is up to us to stop. Can we blame the Sinseh for his or her good intention of our well-beings?


I guess, the doctor works for the hospital while the Sinseh needs to take care of revenue!

Happy Mother's Day 2012

To all readers who are mother and reading this post.  

Happy Mother's Day to you!




Saturday, 12 May 2012

Do you ask your barber whether you need a hair-cut?

Just For Laugh ...

Major STI data points since 1990


STI is down only -4.7% from its recent high of 3,026. Technically, STI is not in the Bear market yet.

Recently, I have been receiving a few email from readers asking for advice like:

  1. To cut loss now???
  2. To average down at support levels???

These are two tough questions to answer. Why?

Read? Stop loss?

Read? Average down?

Do we ask our barber whether we need hair-cut?

Another question not so tough to answer. Is STI going down further???


See for yourself! The above table.

I can only help by showing you the STI past history of Peak to Low days. Currently, it is only 58 days from its recent peak of 3,026. More days to go?????

How many more days before STI will rebound back to the next peak?

Do you own intelligent guess by looking back at history?

Any clue may be your own good clue.







Will the selling pressure ease off soon and be supported by its asset sale and cash pile coming in unlike other commodity play stock like Wilmar, Olam, GAR, etc?

Biosensors - Gone case as BBs lost their patience???


Olam - Is Capital Group selling ahead of expected poor result?


The Capital Group Companies, Inc. ("CGC")

From 5.624 % To 4.9711 %

 Shares were disposed of through a series of transactions from 15/3/2012 through 09/5/2012. 


'London whale' bites US$2b off JP Morgan

Read? Have you spend enough time thinking on your money management stratgeies?

Createwealth888:


Another case of "They all ultimately made big bets and lost big time."

Bank suffers massive credit derivative trading loss caused by London trader's bet that corporations would not default
 
JP MORGAN, which emerged from the financial crisis as America's biggest bank, has roiled markets by disclosing that it had suffered a credit derivative trading loss of at least US$2 billion.

The stock price of JP Morgan and other banks tumbled and contributed to further declines in Asia, Europe and the US yesterday.

JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon apologised in New York on Thursday night for "errors, sloppiness and bad judgment" which led to the loss.

The trader who carried out the trade in the complex credit default derivative market was Bruno Iksil, nicknamed "the London whale" and "Voldemort" after the Harry Potter villain.
His identity was flagged by several reports but not directly confirmed by the bank.

Friday, 11 May 2012

Olam: NOTICE OF CESSATION OF SUBSTANTIAL SHAREHOLDING

The Capital Group Companies, Inc. ("CGC")

From 5.624 % To 4.9711 %

 Shares were disposed of through a series of transactions from 15/3/2012 through 09/5/2012. 

--------------------------------------------------

From now onwards, CGC doesn't need to report its sale for the remaining 4.911% share holding. It can now quietly distribute them out to the market.

Highlights from Sembcorp’s 1Q2012 Financial Results

  1. Turnover at S$2.4 billion, up 21%
  2. Profit from Operations at S$286.1 million, up 4%
  3. Net Profit at S$176.7 million, up 11%
  4. EPS at 9.9 cents
  5. ROE (annualised) at 15.8%
  6. Strong 1Q2012 performance from Utilities

Thursday, 10 May 2012

Noble Group Q1 earnings fall 46% to US$110.1m


Noble Group on Thursday said its net earnings for the first quarter ended March 31, 2012 fell 46 per cent year on year to US$110.1 million from US$203.19 million.

The decrease in profit is despite a record revenue of US$22.84 billion, up 14 per cent from US$20.02 billion a year ago, on record revenue from its energy segment.

The decrease in net profit is due to a US$25.72 million loss in supply chain assets, after charging the costs and expenses incurred in conjunction with its asset recycling program as well as a provision against its long-term equity portfolio.

This compares to the profit of US$53 million a year ago, which was bolstered by the income generated from the disposal of its fleet management business.

Wednesday, 9 May 2012

Why you need a return on your capital (investment) above inflation?

Read?  XIRR/CAGR: Investor's true performance indicator! (6)

Why do we need to invest most of our money (saving)? 

Why not just keep it in the bank?

Inflation!!!! 


We all know that inflation will erode the value of our money over long run.

We cannot afford to look at absolute dollar value over long run when we invest.

For example,

$10,000 return on investment in 2012 is definitely worth less than the $10,000 return on investment in 2001 in term of purchasing power due to inflation eroding the value of the money over the years.

Another example,

Let assume the yearly inflation rate from 2001 to 2010 is at 3%.

Investor A has started investing $100K into the stock market on 1 Jan 2001 and at 31 Dec 2010, his portfolio value is $121,899. He has made an absolute investment gain of $21,899. He may be happy with his return of $21,899 if he is ignorance of inflation.


Investor B also started investing $100K at the same time and at 31 Dec 2010, his portfolio XIRR is 4%. He has beaten the inflation rate of 3% and has real return of 1% i.e 4% - 3% = 1%.

Investor A without measuring his portfolio value will not know his real return after inflation. If he has measured his portfolio value at 31 Dec 2010 using XIRR, his portfolio XIRR will be 2%. His real return is actually negative 1% hor!!!!

Any one still thinking loud that it is meaningless to use XIRR or CAGR to measure your portfolio value over long run? I said again long run hor!!!








Strong resistance in portfolio value???






I realized that my portfolio hit strong resistance level and then either crash, correct or pullback. So will I see another pullback, correction or crash after hitting the recent strong resistance level?

Sembcorp Marine’s Ppl Shipyard Secures A Us$208 Million Contract To Construct A Pacific Class 400 Jack-Up Drilling Rig From Perisai (L) Inc.



Sembcorp Marine’s subsidiary PPL Shipyard has secured a US$208 million contract to construct a Pacific Class 400 jack-up drilling rig for Perisai (L) Inc, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Perisai Petroleum Teknologi Bhd, with an option to construct an additional unit of a similar specification jackup rig for delivery in the second quarter of 2015. The price for the option rig is US$210 million with adjustment to certain cost escalation.

The Pacific Class 400 jack-up drilling rig is PPL Shipyard’s proprietary design. This design is well established and is an enhanced version of PPL Shipyard’s acclaimed and successful Pacific Class 375 design series, of which 27 units are now operating worldwide. The Pacific Class 400 rig represents the latest generation of high specification jack-up rigs that are capable of operating in water depths of 400 feet and drilling to depths of 30,000 feet. The rig’s maximum drill centre is cantilevered at 75 feet aft and it has a derrick hook load capacity of 1,500,000 lbs. The rig is equipped with full hotel services for a complement of 150 men on board in 1-man cabins and 2-men cabins. This unit is scheduled for delivery end July 2014.

Dr. Benety Chang, Deputy Chairman of PPL Shipyard said “We are very pleased that Perisai has chosen the Pacific Class 400 design as its maiden jack-up drilling rig design. We have complemented several companies in growing their rig fleet and in expanding their business into the offshore oil and gas sector. We hope to contribute to our partners’ long-term success and sustainable growth in the industry.”

“We would like to thank Perisai for their confidence in entrusting their first unit to PPL. The proprietary ownership of this design gives us the flexibility to customise turnkey solutions to suit our client’s and the field operator’s requirement as the needs arise.”

“This unit represents the 8th unit of the Pacific Class 400 series since the launch in 2010.”
En. Izzet Ishak, the Managing Director of Perisai Petroleum Teknologi Bhd said “The construction of the jack-up drilling rig represents a significant moment for the Perisai Group. We are excited by this new class of asset as it represents our entry into the offshore drilling segment specifically in Malaysia and broadly in the Asia Pacific region. This construction will provide our customers with access to a technologically advanced latest generation drilling rig. 

The rig’s high specification matches industry best standards with regard to, amongst others, water and drilling depths and load handling capacity of drill pipes. This, together with the extensive and illustrious history of PPL Shipyard, provides Perisai with added confidence as it enters into this new and exciting segment of operations.”

The contract is not expected to have any material impact on the consolidated net tangible assets per share and earnings per share of Sembcorp Marine for the year ending December 31, 2012.

Olam


Monday, 7 May 2012

SEMBCORP ACQUIRES POWER ASSETS IN CHINA FOR US$85.5 MILLION AND GROWS RENEWABLE ENERGY PORTFOLIO

- Sembcorp’s first wind power assets, a significant milestone in its strategy to grow its renewable energy capabilities

SINGAPORE, May 7, 2012 – Sembcorp Industries (Sembcorp) today announces that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Sembcorp Utilities, has signed a sale and purchase agreement with The AES Corporation (AES) to acquire part of its power asset portfolio in China for US$85.5 million (equivalent to approximately S$106.7 million).

The acquisition includes a 49% stake in four wind power assets owned through AES Huanghua, AES Hulunbeier Wind Power Co., AES Xinba’erhu Wind Power Co. and AES Chenba’erhu Wind Power Co., as well as a 25% stake in a coal-fired power plant owned through AES China Corp. The AES Corporation is a global power company listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE: AES).

Commenting on the transaction, Tang Kin Fei, Group President & CEO of Sembcorp, said, “This acquisition strengthens our global energy portfolio and provides a platform to accelerate Sembcorp’s growth in the renewable energy sector. As a responsible energy player, Sembcorp aims to have a portfolio of high efficiency thermal and renewable power generation assets including a growing component of low carbon capacity. With this acquisition, our renewable energy capabilities will now include wind in addition to biomass.

Friday, 4 May 2012

Malacca 4 -6 May 2012


Thursday, 3 May 2012

Preservation of capital

Just For Thinking ....

Preservation of capital


Many investors and traders will agree that preservation of capital is the foundation of successful investing or trading. How do we implement it?

  1. Some will divest into bonds or preference shares
  2. Some think of defensive yield stocks or income stocks
  3. Some let the cash rotting in the bank

My strategy in preservation of capital is to take back my all investing capital and never mind if it is rotting in the bank while waiting for Mr. Bear to come. But, I will still let my profit runs in the market just in case Mr. Bear never come.



Tuesday, 1 May 2012

Formless, Goal-less, Meaningless

Just For Laugh ...

Read? Master the Art of Formless Form - The Greatest of All Kung Fu in Investing (2)

Yes. Art of formless form is the greatest of all Kung Fu in investing.

Goal-less Goal???

So Goal-less goal is the greatest of all goals setting???

My foot! Huh!

CAGR??? XIRR??? ROC???

Why are you measuring for???

It is just a number!!! What is this number for??? The number itself is so meaningless!!!


Some people may think life is also formless, goal-less and meaningless.

Work, eat, sleep, shit. Sometime sex!







No 'wealth effect' in S'poreans' spending: MAS

STOCK and property prices in Singapore go up or down, but people do not change how they spend.

The lack of a so-called "wealth effect" in Singapore was highlighted by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) in its latest macroeconomic review.

MAS found that people do not rush to go on shopping sprees just because the values of stocks or homes in general have soared.

Just For Thinking ....

 Read?  Asset Rich. Cash-flow Rich

Only when we are cash-flow rich, then we can be more generous in spending i.e. wealth effect! MAS's finding just confirm it.  We need to be both asset rich and cash-flow rich to be wealthy. Not meh?

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