As from April 2013 my Journey in Investing is to create Retirement Income for Life till 80 years old for two over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

Welcome to Ministry of Wealth!

This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

It is here where I share with you how I did it! FREE Education in stock market wisdom.

Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down



Important Notice and Attention: If you are looking for such ideas; here is the wrong blog to visit.

Value Investing
Dividend/Income Investing
Technical Analysis and Charting
Stock Tips

Monday, 31 August 2015

Paper Losses Painful. Cut Losses Also Painful! So How???


Let be honest. Tell Uncle88888 that you have read them.

The two statements at the top of this blog!

Uncle8888 didn't anyhow put them for fun!

It was only after painful moments in the stock market; Uncle8888 has this wisdom to put them right up at the Top so that every readers may read them and understand their meaning and cut deep into their Investing Mind. The two processes of long-term investing and short-term trading.


"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder 




"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle 


Any retail investors who have not been through a full market cycle of either Bull-Bear-Bull or Bear-Bull-Bear and survive at the end of a market cycle with 4 to 5% CAGR. You are just newbies including this Uncle8888 who has been blogging and showing off from Dec 2006 till early 2008!

After 8 years in the stock market starting seriously from Jan 2000; in 2007 he made $135K; Feb 07 $28.8K, May 07 $22.8K, Jul 07 $28.4K and Oct 07 (Bull Peak) $15.8K. He thought that after 8 years in the stock market; finally he has arrived and soon he should be trading full time with this type of trading income $135K per year! Smelly smelly 50% of it is $60K per year!

But; Mr. Market taught him a lesson that till Today he will never forget! In 2008, he lost back all to Mr. Market and more.Total losses in 2008 is  -$156K!

You tell me what happened when his daughter has read it!

 

How did newbies get themselves into large losses?

After years of blogging and listening with his own ears and reading with his own eyes and including his own personal experience; the only cause is that most newbies have average down to large losses and with their limited war chest available it has become so difficult to recover!

Hope all newbies keep this in mind! It doesn't matters now you are doing very well. But, you are still newbies!

As for the second statement; it is self-explanatory. It is ancient wisdom!


"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle 

Who want to be a follower?

Your Gurus are not perfect so are you.

You and only you are the one who is fully responsible to fine-tune your own craft to generate that multi-year of more than 5% CAGR to disqualify yourself as newbies!

Get it?








 

Keppel enhances capabilities with acquisition of LETOURNEAU™ jackup rig designs, rig kit and aftermarket service businesses

Keppel Offshore & Marine (Keppel O&M) has through its wholly owned subsidiary, Keppel Offshore & Marine USA, Inc., entered into a Stock and Asset Purchase Agreement with Cameron International Corporation (Cameron), to acquire Cameron's offshore rigs business, which comprises the LETOURNEAUTM jackup rig designs, rig kit business, and aftermarket services for US$100 million.
The LETOURNEAUTM suite of jackup rig designs are established designs that have been popular with certain market segments and have a proven track record of operating in a variety of environments.

The designs Keppel is acquiring, which include the LETOURNEAUTM Super 116E, WORKHORSE, Super Gorilla XL and Jaguar, will add to Keppel's offerings in the jackup rig market.

With the acquisition, Keppel will be able to offer customers the LETOURNEAUTM rig designs through the sale of rig kits to shipyards, or deliver ready-to-drill rig solutions from Keppel yards worldwide. The rig kits include jackup leg components, elevating units/jacking system and cantilever/skidding system. Support equipment such as cranes and anchor winches are also options in the rig kits.

Another aspect of the business is the provision of aftermarket services. With about 100 LETOURNEAUTM rigs currently operating around the world, many operators require servicing and repair of their rigs. Keppel will be able to leverage its network of yards worldwide to better meet these customers' needs. Besides repairs, upgrades and modifications, jackups are required to undergo five-year Class recertification special periodic surveys.

Mr Chow Yew Yuen, CEO of Keppel O&M, said, "This is an opportune and strategic acquisition as it will not only broaden our suite of jackup rig design offerings in this highly competitive sector, but also provide us with enhanced capabilities to service customers through the provision of expanded aftermarket sales and services. We are confident that the long-term fundamentals of the offshore rig market remain positive."

"With the current low oil price, we have seen a slowdown in newbuild rig orders. Rig owners are instead looking at repairing and upgrading their current fleet. We believe that we can make best use of our after sales service infrastructure to service rigs of both the LETOURNEAUTM as well as Keppel FELS designs. These are popular designs operating in many of the world's offshore oil fields and rig owners can now utilise our global network of yards to service and maintain their rig assets cost-effectively."

Keppel O&M has the expertise to build rigs of the LETOURNEAUTM design having previously completed 16 such rigs.

The completion of the acquisition is subject to the fulfilment of certain conditions precedent, including relevant approvals from regulatory authorities.

The above acquisition is not expected to have material impact on the net tangible assets or earnings per share of Keppel Corporation Limited for the current financial year.


- END -

Self Interest vs. Vested Interest??? (3)


Read? Self Interest vs. Vested Interest??? (2)

Read?  Go To The Mountain .... (2)


Uncle8888 also learned something new and unexpectedly - he may be seen as vested interest "financial planning adviser (Insurance Agent)" blogging. LOL!

 
The Line between Self Interest vs. Vested Interest is actually quite blur!

It will take time for someone to see the real difference!


 
 

 

Sunday, 30 August 2015

The Hen & the Pig Go To Breakfast (3)


Read? The Hen & the Pig Go To Breakfast (2)


Don't follow but leverage on your favourite bloggers!


Same same but different!

 

Passive (Blind) Followers: 

Buying: Favourite bloggers have bought so they rushed to buy.

Selling: Favourite bloggers have sold, reduce or cut losses. Many questions now?

Are they immediately aware?

Do they follow?

Worse still; their favourite bloggers cut losses but they average down.


Reactive (Intelligent) Followers:

They are the ones what SMOL said: Trust but Verify!

What is the likely outcome when they verify an investment thesis from your season and regular investment and financial bloggers. 

You are going to suffer from confirmation bias!

What Uncle8888 commonly hear from his own ears and read with his own eyes on real people real followers on bad outcomes with their common justification - I no blindly follow leh. I got do my home works hor! I check this. I check that!


Leverage on your favourite bloggers


You have already done your own home works for your investment thesis from other sources e.g. company reports, annual report; earning report, financial news, etc. Your investment thesis is independent and not influenced by the investment thesis of your favorite bloggers.

You have done your own Entries and Exits

You are ready to hit the Button! 


 









Your favourite bloggers hit the Button! 

Now, you think deeply once more time, and  ..



 






 

The Hen & the Pig Go To Breakfast (2)


Read? The Hen & the Pig Go To Breakfast



Rolf: "For K Corp and S Corp; go and ask CW. He is the expert!"


Hmmm ...

Uncle bought Kep Corp liao!


Oh oh ..

Uncle bought Semb Corp hor!


Can follow?

 
What Uncle have not shown you before?


Understand The Moral of Story of The Hen & the Pig Go to Breakfast when following your favourite bloggers!









 


 

When You Love It Cheaper; OK to Average Down!!!



Walau!


Uncle8888 ki siao!!!


One moment he is quite against Average Down; now flip his mind and say it is OK to love it cheaper and average down!


Need to book IMH appointment?

Can do it today for online booking!



















Only and only one?

Similar and exactly ones also can!

This one!







By nature, STI ETF is self-repairing and self-healing stock. If you cannot take the emotions to ride market cycles to do all necessary re-balancing acts like making hays while Sun shines and pulling out weeds in your gardens; then out-source these re-balancing acts to Fund Manager.

No free lunch here!

Your yield will be much lower; but your stock won't be suspended!  The re-balancing acts by your Fund Manager will keep it alive at all times.

Living with a stock without Fear!

How nice. Right?

















Boss: "Did you see those dusty coffee tables there?"

CW,

Reminded me of a story my ex-Taiwan boss told me about our furniture showroom sales colleagues in China.

Saw a coffee table dusty so Boss told the sales staff to clean it. That particular coffee table got cleaned.

Next day, other furniture pieces dusty no one cleaned them... :(

LOL!


Okay. Simple but not easy! 

Can be done?

Got Heart?


Dusty Coffee Table 1: Education - Investing made simple

Timing is important and luck too. But; some time when we look back hard enough; we may realize that when we are well prepared and ready at the right moment suddenly luck came. 

What a lucky moment!



Looking at our individual stocks; we will one day or some days or many months break our heart!

Why do we keep staring at some Trees; but miss our amazing Forest that will be there for decades to come?

Dusty Coffee Table 3: Portfolio Management


Uncle8888's Winning strategy. Once you have mastered this strategy. You can be sure you will be sleeping soundly for the next few decades; but you must be younger than him to do that.

Dusty Coffee Table 4: Pillow Stocks



Uncle8888 started blogging in Dec 2006 and no secret talks in the office. All know that he is very active in the stock market; even few bosses openly said: "Stocks? Go and ask him". LOL! 

Now; you may know why he is condemned at office; but some colleagues openly call him Sifu or Master!

As an old uncle grade blogger; over the years he has this privilege to personally hear with his own ears; and read with his own eyes on many true stories that were told to him.  

Real retail investors who have lost big and so big that they eventually brought misery and pains to themselves with their own doing!

This dusty coffee table. You better clean it properly!

Beware of Encik CW8888 who is coming to check Area Cleaning!




Uncle8888's Sifu wise words: "It is far better to REGRET not making more than to feel SORRY of losing our hard earned money!".

This is definitely aligned to our human nature and biasness.

When we cannot resist it then we should follow it!

Be like rain water; follow it down stream to whatever it goes!


Read? Loss Aversion







Saturday, 29 August 2015

On Blog Leave From 1 to 2 Sep 15 - Overseas Working Trip!
















Go To The Mountain .... (2)


Read? Go To The Mountain ....


After a few days of hard struggling, she finally reached the Top of the Mountain.

Where is the Secret Sauce?

The Mountain looked at her for many hours over the night looking for clues. 

Yalor! Where is the Secret Sauce? 

Oh!

She just didn't realize it that she already has the Secret Sauce; but she went to more Mountains looking for Secret Sauce. She found four Secret Sauce from four different Mountains. Two of the four Mountains are currently Singapore's Star Mountains. Don't play play!  Some more, it is diversified with four Mountains. Can do!

Initially; the Secret Sauce tasted sweet and nice; but when the market turned sour; all four Secret Sauce from four different Mountains all turned into Sour Sauce! Heart pain liao!

Luckily; she was lack of confidence over the Secret Sauce as the color of these sauce looked funny and she dared not average down; otherwise she will lagi heart pain liao!

The Mountain then pointed to her homemade Sauce. 

What is this? How you did make it?


OMG!



 

Your homemade Sauce is down only with - 9.3% while your four Secret Sauce from four different Mountains combined is down at -40.8%

Walau! 

Your homemade Sauce performed four times better than four Mountain's combined Secret Sauce and yet you are coming up another Mountain to look for Secret Sauce!

Lady. You are okay!

Now, you can go down the Mountain with your own Secret Sauce and can stop looking for one.

The Moral of the Story ...

Our homemade Sauce may be the Secret Sauce that is with us all the time; but yet we go so far up other Mountains to look for Secret Sauce!

 
 

Reading this won't make you great! (Including financial and investment blogs)



Read? Reading this won't make you great! (Think it is a good time to re-read)

Real People. Real Sigh!

started in Jan 14, i started to read financial blog, learn about passive come. so then i invested in so called good dividend stock...

dunno la. ended up..now minus out these few year earning..i still lose some money. 

sometime, i think..if me didn buy share..just save..i am richer than what i am now..
 
 
CW8888: So how?
 

It Is Still Better Than The Blow in Oct 2011; But Oct 2015 is NOT over Yet!!!


In Oct 2011; Uncle8888's portfolio value was down -21.8% and in Aug 2015, it was down -15.9%; but Oct 2015 is not over yet!





Friday, 28 August 2015

Strengthening War Chest From Our Investment Portfolio??? (2)


Read? Strengthening War Chest From Our Investment Portfolio???

Read? Switching Horses Is Not Same As Cut Losses Into Cash???



3M's - The Mind and Money Management


Many bloggers have talked about it over and over again.

Read? Loss aversion

So loss aversion will lead us to this feeling ...

It is better to REGRET not making more than to feel SORRY for losing our hard earned money.



Naturally; it will fit nicely into our loss aversion behaviour. Right?


How do we want to strengthen our war chest at the next market cycle?


Positively by making hay while Sun shines or negatively by pulling out weeds from our garden.

 or 


Cost Plus by making hay while Sun shines or Cost Minus by pulling out weeds from our garden.


Uncle, how ah?

Should I bite bullet and cut losses?

How do you feel?

Same same?



 

Thursday, 27 August 2015

Lazy Bum Retail Investors! Are You Also One Of Them?


True Story. Real Retail Investor.

He told Uncle8888 many times he wanted to seriously learn DIY investing from him.  

But, it is not after f...  him for months to track and measure his investment portfolio; he finally (reluctantly) produced a simplified and scale down version of his investment portfolio worksheet to show him last week.


DIY but hand off!

Read?  Measuring



Go To The Mountain ....

三顧茅廬
 

Kep Corp's FLNG: Watch What Golar Is Reporting too!


Investment Review

Conversion Contracts

As of end-July, overall Hilli FLNG project progress remained on schedule and expenditure for the quarter was in accordance with the approved budget. During the quarter sponson construction, assembly, blasting and painting work progressed.  Fabrication of piping and pipe supports continued and good progress was made with the repair and life extension work for the vessel. Significant activities undertaken during the last quarter included addressing specific design and operation issues (Perenco/Cameroon) and the overall project at the end of July is calculated to be 60% complete.

On July 21, the Company executed agreements for the conversion of the 126,000m3 LNG carrier Gandria to a Golar floating liquefaction facility (GoFLNG). The Gandria conversion will now be dedicated to satisfy the commitments to Ophir in Equatorial Guinea, covered by the agreement announced in May this year, requiring delivery of facilities in 2019. This move will release the Gimi (conversion contract signed in December 2014) to cover the potential emerging demand for a 2018 GoFLNG project. Provisions in the Gimi and Gandria contracts give Golar the flexibility to adjust project timing and to limit expenditure. The objective for Golar is to ensure that it does not remain financially exposed in any material manner to more than one speculative GoFLNG. Golar's ability to deliver fast track GoFLNG solutions by having a pipeline of key long-lead components on order is a critical part of the business strategy.

The Gandria conversion contract is on target to become effective by the end of September this year. This contract provides similar beneficial cancellation provisions, which if exercised before December 2016 will allow termination of the contracts after deduction of a set cancellation fee.

GoFLNG - Business Development Progress

Agreement has now been reached with the support of the Boards of both Golar and Perenco on the material commercial terms and conditions for the approximate 1.2 million tonne, 8-year Cameroon FLNG project scheduled to commence operations in 2Q 2017. The Tolling Agreement which defines the material commercial terms and conditions for the project is now subject to finalisation with SNH. The Midstream Gas Convention setting out the regulatory and fiscal regime governing the FLNG operations in Cameroon is now only subject to finalisation with the government. All parties including the government of Cameroon remain on track and are confident of approving the Tolling Agreement and the Midstream Gas Convention by the end of September 2015. Signing of these agreements will formalise FID for Golar's first GoFLNG project.

The Company expects the project in Cameroon to deliver an EBITDA for Golar in the first full year of operation, based on the utilisation of 2 of the available 4 liquefaction trains, in the range of $170 million to $300 million, with a flexible tolling structure which correlates to Brent crude oil prices ranging from a floor of $60/bbl to a cap of $102/bbl.

Golar announced on May 5 that it had signed a binding Heads of Terms with Ophir Energy Plc for the provision of the GoFLNG vessel Gimi or alternate. Subsequently the Gandria was nominated for the Equatorial Guinea project so that Gimi can be available in time for potential GoFLNG projects starting operations in 2018. The agreement for Gandria will be structured as a 20-year tolling contract, commencing commercial operations in the first half of 2019.

Golar, with its partners Keppel Shipyard and Black & Veatch, committed to the Gimi FLNG conversion in December 2014. Gimi and Gandria will both benefit from utilising the same configuration of utilities and liquefaction facilities as sister ship Hilli, with variations to Gandria to accommodate production direct from the deep-water reservoir. During the quarter, additional detailed engineering studies (FEED) were commenced for Gandria with the objective of finalising the design and budget for the deep water variations. The integrated Ophir/GEPetrol/Sonagas/Golar project remains on schedule to take FID during the first half of 2016.

The Cedar LNG Project development activity for the quarter included continued support of the NEB LNG export application as well as focus on solidifying arrangements for gas transportation service into the Douglas Channel area. The Company continues to monitor development activities for the relevant large scale pipeline projects upon which the first phase of Cedar LNG is dependent. Golar is currently anticipating FID for Cedar Phase I to be achieved by the end of 2016 assuming such third party pipelines maintain their current schedules.

New GoFLNG business development activity has been focused on maturing projects that have the potential to commence operations in 2018. A shortlist of 4 potential projects is currently subject to active discussions. Interestingly, each of these projects is located in a completely separate geographic region. In each of these projects the competitive tolling fees and flexible commercial structures have the potential to generate very attractive economics, even at today's low oil and LNG prices.

To meet potential customers' demand for early commencement, Golar has initiated discussions with Keppel Shipyard and Black & Veatch. The target is to achieve a fourth conversion with a delivery in late 2018/early 2019. A commitment will be dependent on Golar firming employment opportunities within 1Q 2016.

The recent weakness in oil and gas prices has highlighted the benefits of a fast track FLNG solution versus large, capital intensive greenfield LNG developments. In addition to reduced capital expenditure and accelerated start up, the Company's counterparts appreciate the flexibility the floating toll creates with respect to term and volume. Several of the business opportunities currently being discussed are based on stranded, associated or flared gas with limited commercial value without monetization through LNG production.

Capital expenditure for new, large scale Greenfield LNG developments shows a cash breakeven level from $10 per mmbtu and upwards. The cash breakeven level for a turnkey GoFLNG development can be significantly lower.

The Company is confident that a GoFLNG solution supplied with African or Asian gas reserves generates a reasonable return both for producers and Golar even with European and Asian gas prices at current levels. Significant upside can be monetized if gas prices recover. Golar is further confident that with respect to feed gas price, capital cost, transportation cost and flexibility, it has a competitive advantage over US export projects.



FLNG financing

As at June 30, including the value of the original vessel, Golar has invested $411 million in the Hilli conversion project. Today this investment sits at $424 million.  From the end of September when the tolling agreement and the midstream gas convention have been approved by SNH and the Cameroon government, respectively, all remaining conversion and site specific costs for the GoFLNG Hilli will be satisfied by a fully documented and underwritten facility provided by CSSC (Hong Kong) Shipping Co. Ltd. ("CSSCL"). This will fund up to 80% of the GoFLNG Hilli.

The financing structure will be split into two phases. Phase one enables Golar to draw down up to $700 million from the facility to fund the ongoing project cost once Golar and its minority partners have spent $400 million of the estimated $1.2bn project cost. Phase two is triggered upon delivery of the converted GoFLNG Hilli from Keppel Shipyard and the satisfaction of certain milestones.  This will provide for the drawdown of a further $260 million giving an aggregate $960 million.  This final tranche is expected to satisfy the remaining conversion costs outstanding at that time and the remainder will be a release of the Company's equity.

The CSSCL financing has a tenor of 10-years, a 15-year amortisation profile and contemplates the eventual sale of GoFLNG Hilli to Golar Partners.  The expected cost of the financing during the conversion period is 6.25% while the long term financing is projected to cost less than 6% on a fully swapped ten year basis.

Liquidity

The Company maintains a good liquidity position notwithstanding the current weak operating results. The cash balance at the end of 2Q is $375 million and a further $100 million is receivable from Golar Partners in respect of the Eskimo sale. Additionally, the Company will receive $50 million in yearly distributions from Golar Partners. The capital expenditure for Gimi and Gandria over the next twelve months is to a large extent dependent on progress with contractual employment discussions. As at June 30, 2015, $50 million has been invested in the Gimi and Gandria conversions.  If no progress is made firming up employment opportunities, the total cash expenditure will have increased to $65 million for these two vessels in the period up to June 30, 2016, of which $30 million is recoverable in the case of termination.




Corporate and other matters

The recent collapse of oil and gas prices has increased interest in LNG fueled combined cycle power generation. A shortage of power in areas like Brazil, Indonesia, India and South Africa and strong power prices in these areas together with lower gas prices have dramatically improved the economics of gas fuelled power generation.  Simultaneously, we see stranded and associated gas reserves that can be acquired at attractive valuations. The lack of near term liquidity in the LNG market to a certain extent prevents resource holders from developing reserves before they have firm off take contracts.

In order to develop Golar further and accelerate the implementation of the GoFLNG concept, the Company has in recent months been negotiating with Brazilian power partners. These partners have been awarded a 25 year PPA contract with Brazilian authorities to build and operate a 1.5 GWha LNG fuelled combined cycle power station in Sergipe, Northern Brazil. Golar has negotiated a right to participate in up to 25% of this project and has the exclusive right to provide the FSRU. In addition to supplying the power station with gas, the FSRU would also have excess capacity to deliver gas to the Brazilian grid. The partners are currently working through the permitting process and are in negotiations with LNG providers, contractors and financiers. The capacity payment achieved in the PPA contract was awarded at a historically high level. If Golar proceeds, it would do so on the basis of an expected unleveraged project return in excess of 15 %. Further upside is available based on usage.

Golar intends to establish a stand-alone, non-recourse subsidiary, Golar Power Ltd. to hold this investment. The Company's total commitment to this subsidiary will initially be $5 million in liquidity lines and $24 million in non-performance guarantees, effective from 2020. Further equity investments would be needed if the project gets a final go ahead. It would be Golar's intention to bring additional partners into Golar Power. In addition to the solid project return, Golar would use this position to accelerate its GoFLNG activities by creating a natural partnership with power producers and traders. The target is to offer a more integrated LNG solution to resource holders.  Golar has approached several leading trading companies with this idea and has received encouraging feedback. A final clarification around this structure should be expected before year-end.

The size of Golar's investments in Golar Power will be relatively small compared to the Company's commitment to FLNG, FSRUs and LNG shipping. Golar's business model remains to be a midstream gas company focussed on tariff based FLNG production. It is the Company's intention to separate Golar Power from the rest of the activities over time. This can take place through a spin off to Golar's shareholders.




Uncle8888's Secret Sauce Is Not For Sale! No Vested Interest!!!





Hmmm ... Unexpected new requests coming in when Uncle8888 opened his InBox this morning.

Before more readers started sending in their requests. 

Please help yourself and Uncle8888 by reading closely and fully understand the whole conversation with Lady Yeh!

Secret sauce? Do not just focus on the Yellow!


 
  1.  
    3% yield is good dividend and only looking for blue chips. Congratulations as you have found yourself a simple method with your good yield.

    Less Analyzing. More investing - CW8888

    Show you how. :-)
     
    ReplyDelete
     
     
    Read closely!  Comments
     
     

     

Wednesday, 26 August 2015

"Got heart" will find one...


SMOL:  "Got heart" will find one... 
True Story. One Reader who has the heart to find it and what it took for him to find it. 
On  2/3/11

Wishing u a Happy and Prosperous New Year

Hi CW8888,
I hope you wouldn't mind me calling you CW8888, as I saw how others address you. And this way I can identify you better with your blog.
I was struck by your name, the 2 processes of Long Term and short term trading are mentioned and these are what I've been struggling with since I began.
I have a portfolio meant for long term and another for short term trading.
Yes, I have been meausring my results. Trading was not great last year, does not meet my goal of what I set out to get per month, on the average. Part of the problem is I'm still a newbie, just starting out. Did not trade frequent enough. I tried to be a Positional Trader, not a Contra trader. I think I know where the mistakes are, those counters were definitely not mentioned in your blog, not blue chip calibre and they are still bleeding. Still have not cut loss yet.
I used "profit" and now I have changed to "Return on Capital" and "Total Return on Capital" to include the dividend received for the portfolio, after I saw how you measured yours. Thanks for sharing, this is very kind and very generous of you.
Actually, the results can be measured very easily also, against my livelyhood. I think I won't be able to get another similar-paying job after this, in fact getting a job at all would be a real challege for me. I happen to be in a sunset industry far too long. Not much portable skills for next one and not young any more. I had a "complete resume" couple of years back, they said your resume is not complete until you are retrenched once. A few of them go into trading. One succeeded and now working as a remisier. Another I would say did not because he started working again last year.
I have been tracking NetWorth for a couple of years, lumping the portfolio in there. This year, I'm going to track the performance of this portfolio by itself as well.
I still remembered how painful it was to see the value plunged in the midst of last financial crisis in 2008/2009. I was lucky to get some at the bottom and also unlucky to sell some of the very good blue chip too soon and never get them back.
Just to say little bit more about myself, I have already paid up my HDB by 37, does not own a car, 2 young children in school here,  and I also have similar goal, financial independence. If I'm successful, I will achieve that by 50.
I'm digesting your pillow stock strategy...
On  2/7/11
How he spent his Chinese New Year holidays ...

Look forward to what you may write about the 2 processes

 

Hi Uncle8888,

I'm looking forward to what you may write, about the theme in your blog, Long Term investment and Short Term trading.

I had first guessed you must have some background in Financials or Accounting, from the way you use those financial formulas and the excel data, charts and the top level summary and the ultimate measurement. Before I see you using CAGR, I measure the yearly Net Asset change over the base year and also yearly change.

Yep, I used the same hard way when going through your blogs during these New Year holidays, keep hitting the older blogs and sometimes have to start from the top of that month's blog to go down to the one I last read. I think I'm about 90+% done. Phew, you have written so much and so well.

Not a single morning went by without me thinking how I would start the day when I lost my current job and have to start trading to earn a living...

What you wrote about getting out of the rat race, getting the mind flip by the book Rich Dad Poor Dad ( my mind was first flipped by the book Millionaire Next Door), made redundant and thank you by the company when we are 40+ and older (happened to me when I was 39 and on the way up in the rat race), strike a very resonant chord in me.

Thanks.

Wishing us a very lucky year in the market.

Exactly One Year Later! The Unforgotten One Year Kopi Appointment!



True Story. One Amazing and Grateful Reader!


Uncle Sifu,

its December and its time for coffee, tea and bread. Thank you so much for helping understand my naive thinking and I do wish you can let me treat you to a simple kopi session.( vegetarian one coz i'm one.)

With the warmest regards, 



Tuesday, 25 August 2015

Strengthening War Chest From Our Investment Portfolio???

 

Uncle8888 knows that most people are able to strengthen their war chest through their regular saving from their earned income; but NOT for Uncle8888.

In Jan 2000 at his age of 43+, he seriously came to the stock market with all he already had. He couldn't afford to lose more than that as it is really a sizable war chest from his past 23 years of saving. Remember that he is from single household income with three children and five mouths to feed. No extra money to play play in the stock market!

Till today in Aug 2015,  even after 15 years of more earned income; it is still the same amount of capital available for investing. No more and no less. This is all part of prudent risk and money management in practice - strict discipline; greed and fear control at the maximum! 

The best outcome arising this practice is that his investment performance is simple to measure and perfectly measured by XIRR as there is no complication of additions of new capital.

   

 

 


So how does Uncle8888 strengthen his war chest over market cycles?

 

Over the last 15 years; he did learn something about strengthening his war chest. You may like think over it even though you have the ability to strengthen your war chest through your regular saving.

There are two ways of strengthening his war chest - positively or negatively.

Positively by making hay while Sun shines or negatively by pulling out weeds from his garden.

He realized he has done both; but he finds that positively is still better than negatively. The down side could be many years of seeing dried hays doing nothing. 

This can be sickening too!

No right or wrong as the size of war chest still count when it is needed!

 





 

Switching Horses Is Not Same As Cut Losses Into Cash???


Old man loves to repeat the same old stories over again and again to younger ones. You listen until sianz; but not the old man who does the talking.





Cutting losses is also market timing. Are we really good at market timing?

Cutting losses into cash (Exits)  is not the same as switching horses. When we have locked in negative return by cutting losses into cash it becomes very hard to recover from cash position as it will require another market timing to get the right Entries. How good are we?

What Uncle8888 did at last GFC ...


Read? No Stop losses 

Bleeding heart when we have large paper losses as the more we look at them the more it becomes so real and bleeding!

Super sianz!


 











The Story Of The Duck (2)


Read? Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) skidded 588.5 points, or 3.6%,

But, STI  is reovering!

Strange!!!
 

For those who may not have a chance to read this story and understand why the market is like that!

Read? The Story Of The Duck

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) skidded 588.5 points, or 3.6%,

 YF News

Wall Street dropped on Monday in tumultuous action as traders raced into safe-haven assets amid mounting worries over instability in China and emerging markets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) skidded 588.5 points, or 3.6%, to 15871.3, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped 77.7 points, or 3.9%, to 1893.2, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell 179.8 points, or 3.8%, to 4526.3.


Trading was extremely volatile. The Dow plummeted 1089.4 points at the lows of the session. Meanwhile, the CBOE's VIX spiked 41.6%. The gauge was up an astounding 205.4% from the same day last week.
The S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq both tumbled into correction territory, having fallen 10% from a recent high. The latest round of selling stripped some $811.5 billion in market value from U.S. firms. 


4 Days of consecutive drops!


Monday, 24 August 2015

Dow Jones industrial average fell 1,089 points in the open!!!

 
The Dow Jones industrial average traded about 300 to 500 points lower after falling as much as 1,089 points in the open. The index traveled more than 3,000 points in down and up moves during the first 90 minutes of trade. 

Do You Want To Be A Trader or Long Run (term) Retail Investors Over Market Cycles?



Real People. Real Portfolio across market cycles!

If you have just started in the stock market before GFC; this is how it looked like ...

Are you okay?

 


SGX


STI is technically into Bear Market!


Is this your first Bear Market?



































For your eyes exercise, what did you notice in the table below?

Mr. Bear still have some leg to go?

 



Likely Profile of a Successful Retail Investors?


When did you last read about the Truth from finance and investment bloggers?

What do you think?


Profile A or B?


Profile A













Profile B

















Which must come first to be a successful retail investor?




Sunday, 23 August 2015

CPL : NTA not relevant for property developer???



DBS : Strongest Support?


H1 2015 NBV @ $15.29 sits well on past major resistance turned support points.

Wah! Look really solid based on TA and FA crystal ball!

LOL!




SembCorp Ind: Undervalued?


9.4% below H1 2015 NAV @ $3.61





DIY Flight Booking. Get Confirmation Immediately Upon Full Payment!


 Read? Hotel Safe Deposit???

Same as hotel booking. Uncle8888 is a bit kiasu and kiasi during booking!



























 

Don't lose too much even it is paper losses as it can be very hard to recover those paper losses without pumping in more new capital from your saving.


The Law of Large Losses!




Reaching Financial Independence based on your Investment Portfolio? Yes! But, be extra careful too in your approach as Market is well known to be volatile!


Real Retail Investor. True Market Volatility


 



















Uncle88888's counter market volatility approach using Three Taps Retirement Income For Life Solution ... 

Read? H1 2015 Investment Performance Report




Never Good At Entries and Exits


Uncle8888's Last few Entries and Exits for the next Buy Back Game Plan?


1. DBS

Read?  DBS : Sold @ $21.04


2. CPL

Read?  CPL - Lucky Round Number @ $4 (SOLD)

3. Olam

Read?  Olam: Sold $2.33, ROC 36.7%

4. Cambridge

Read?  Cambridge (CIT): Sold $0.52 , ROC 3.6%


5. Sabana

Read?  Sabana: Sold @ $0.91 ROC 2.8%





Saturday, 22 August 2015

Book : Behavioural Investing: Understanding the Psychology of Investing By Pauline Yong


Thin book.  Easy read. Simple to understand; but extremely difficult to control well!

Borrow from NLB as usual. Uncle8888 is frugal reader. Bo pian!

 





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