Let be honest. Tell Uncle88888 that you have read them.
The two statements at the top of this blog! Uncle8888 didn't anyhow put them for fun! It was only after painful moments in the stock market; Uncle8888 has this wisdom to put them right up at the Top so that every readers may read them and understand their meaning and cut deep into their Investing Mind. The two processes of long-term investing and short-term trading.
"The market is not your mother. It
consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away
from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth."- Dr. Alexander Elder "For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle
Any retail investors who have not been through a full market cycle of either Bull-Bear-Bull or Bear-Bull-Bear and survive at the end of a market cycle with 4 to 5% CAGR. You are just newbies including this Uncle8888 who has been blogging and showing off from Dec 2006 till early 2008!
After 8 years in the stock market starting seriously from Jan 2000; in 2007 he made$135K; Feb 07 $28.8K, May 07 $22.8K, Jul 07 $28.4K and Oct 07 (Bull Peak) $15.8K. He thought that after 8 years in the stock market; finally he has arrived and soon he should be trading full time with this type of trading income $135K per year! Smelly smelly 50% of it is $60K per year!
But; Mr. Market taught him a lesson that till Today he will never forget! In 2008, he lost back all to Mr. Market and more.Total losses in 2008 is -$156K!
You tell me what happened when his daughter has read it!
How did newbies get themselves into large losses? After years of blogging and listening with his own ears and reading with his own eyes and including his own personal experience; the only cause is that most newbies have average down to large losses and with their limited war chest available it has become so difficult to recover! Hope all newbies keep this in mind! It doesn't matters now you are doing very well. But, you are still newbies! As for the second statement; it is self-explanatory. It is ancient wisdom!
"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle Who want to be a follower?
Your Gurus are not perfect so are you.
You and only you are the one who is fully responsible to fine-tune your own craft to generate that multi-year of more than 5% CAGR to disqualify yourself as newbies!
Keppel Offshore & Marine (Keppel O&M) has through its wholly
owned subsidiary, Keppel Offshore & Marine USA, Inc., entered into a
Stock and Asset Purchase Agreement with Cameron International
Corporation (Cameron), to acquire Cameron's offshore rigs business,
which comprises the LETOURNEAUTM jackup rig designs, rig kit business, and aftermarket services for US$100 million.
The LETOURNEAUTM suite of jackup rig designs are
established designs that have been popular with certain market segments
and have a proven track record of operating in a variety of
The designs Keppel is acquiring, which include the LETOURNEAUTM Super 116E, WORKHORSE, Super Gorilla XL and Jaguar, will add to Keppel's offerings in the jackup rig market.
With the acquisition, Keppel will be able to offer customers the LETOURNEAUTM
rig designs through the sale of rig kits to shipyards, or deliver
ready-to-drill rig solutions from Keppel yards worldwide. The rig kits
include jackup leg components, elevating units/jacking system and
cantilever/skidding system. Support equipment such as cranes and anchor
winches are also options in the rig kits.
Another aspect of the business is the provision of aftermarket services. With about 100 LETOURNEAUTM
rigs currently operating around the world, many operators require
servicing and repair of their rigs. Keppel will be able to leverage its
network of yards worldwide to better meet these customers' needs.
Besides repairs, upgrades and modifications, jackups are required to
undergo five-year Class recertification special periodic surveys.
Mr Chow Yew Yuen, CEO of Keppel O&M, said, "This is an opportune
and strategic acquisition as it will not only broaden our suite of
jackup rig design offerings in this highly competitive sector, but also
provide us with enhanced capabilities to service customers through the
provision of expanded aftermarket sales and services. We are confident
that the long-term fundamentals of the offshore rig market remain
"With the current low oil price, we have seen a slowdown in newbuild
rig orders. Rig owners are instead looking at repairing and upgrading
their current fleet. We believe that we can make best use of our after
sales service infrastructure to service rigs of both the LETOURNEAUTM
as well as Keppel FELS designs. These are popular designs operating in
many of the world's offshore oil fields and rig owners can now utilise
our global network of yards to service and maintain their rig assets
Keppel O&M has the expertise to build rigs of the LETOURNEAUTM design having previously completed 16 such rigs.
The completion of the acquisition is subject to the fulfilment of
certain conditions precedent, including relevant approvals from
The above acquisition is not expected to have material impact on the
net tangible assets or earnings per share of Keppel Corporation Limited
for the current financial year.
Don't follow but leverage on your favourite bloggers!
Same same but different!
Passive (Blind) Followers:
Buying: Favourite bloggers have bought so they rushed to buy. Selling: Favourite bloggers have sold, reduce or cut losses. Many questions now?
Are they immediately aware? Do they follow? Worse still; their favourite bloggers cut losses but they average down.
Reactive (Intelligent) Followers: They are the ones what SMOL said: Trust but Verify! What is the likely outcome when they verify an investment thesis from your season and regular investment and financial bloggers.
You are going to suffer from confirmation bias!
What Uncle8888 commonly hear from his own ears and read with his own eyes on real people real followers on bad outcomes with their common justification - I no blindly follow leh. I got do my home works hor! I check this. I check that!
Leverage on your favourite bloggers
You have already done your own home works for your investment thesis from other sources e.g. company reports, annual report; earning report, financial news, etc. Your investment thesis is independent and not influenced by the investment thesis of your favorite bloggers.
One moment he is quite against Average Down; now flip his mind and say it is OK to love it cheaper and average down!
Need to book IMH appointment?
Can do it today for online booking!
Only and only one?
Similar and exactly ones also can!
By nature, STI ETF is self-repairing and self-healing stock. If you cannot take the emotions to ride market cycles to do all necessary re-balancing acts like making hays while Sun shines and pulling out weeds in your gardens; then out-source these re-balancing acts to Fund Manager. No free lunch here!
Your yield will be much lower; but your stock won't be suspended! The re-balancing acts by your Fund Manager will keep it alive at all times.
After a few days of hard struggling, she finally reached the Top of the Mountain.
Where is the Secret Sauce?
The Mountain looked at her for many hours over the night looking for clues.
Yalor! Where is the Secret Sauce?
She just didn't realize it that she already has the Secret Sauce; but she went to more Mountains looking for Secret Sauce. She found four Secret Sauce from four different Mountains. Two of the four Mountains are currently Singapore's Star Mountains. Don't play play! Some more, it is diversified with four Mountains. Can do! Initially; the Secret Sauce tasted sweet and nice; but when the market turned sour; all four Secret Sauce from four different Mountains all turned into Sour Sauce! Heart pain liao! Luckily; she was lack of confidence over the Secret Sauce as the color of these sauce looked funny and she dared not average down; otherwise she will lagi heart pain liao! The Mountain then pointed to her homemade Sauce.
What is this? How you did make it?
Your homemade Sauce is down only with - 9.3% while your four Secret Sauce from four different Mountains combined is down at -40.8%
Your homemade Sauce performedfour times better than four Mountain's combined Secret Sauce and yet you are coming up another Mountain to look for Secret Sauce!
Lady. You are okay!
Now, you can go down the Mountain with your own Secret Sauce and can stop looking for one.
The Moral of the Story ...
Our homemade Sauce may be the Secret Sauce that is with us all the time; but yet we go so far up other Mountains to look for Secret Sauce!
True Story. Real Retail Investor. He told Uncle8888 many times he wanted to seriously learn DIY investing from him.
But, it is not after f... him for months to track and measure his investment portfolio; he finally (reluctantly) produced a simplified and scale down version of his investment portfolio worksheet to show him last week. DIY but hand off!
As of end-July, overall Hilli FLNG
project progress remained on schedule and expenditure for the quarter
was in accordance with the approved budget. During the quarter sponson
construction, assembly, blasting and painting work progressed.
Fabrication of piping and pipe supports continued and good progress was
made with the repair and life extension work for the vessel. Significant
activities undertaken during the last quarter included addressing
specific design and operation issues (Perenco/Cameroon) and the overall
project at the end of July is calculated to be 60% complete.
On July 21,
the Company executed agreements for the conversion of the 126,000m3 LNG
carrier Gandria to a Golar floating liquefaction facility (GoFLNG). The
Gandria conversion will now be dedicated to satisfy the commitments to
Ophir in Equatorial Guinea, covered by the agreement announced in May
this year, requiring delivery of facilities in 2019. This move will
release the Gimi (conversion contract signed in December 2014) to cover
the potential emerging demand for a 2018 GoFLNG project. Provisions in
the Gimi and Gandria contracts give Golar the flexibility to adjust
project timing and to limit expenditure. The objective for Golar is to
ensure that it does not remain financially exposed in any material
manner to more than one speculative GoFLNG. Golar's ability to deliver
fast track GoFLNG solutions by having a pipeline of key long-lead
components on order is a critical part of the business strategy.
The Gandria conversion contract is on
target to become effective by the end of September this year. This
contract provides similar beneficial cancellation provisions, which if
exercised before December 2016 will allow termination of the contracts
after deduction of a set cancellation fee.
GoFLNG - Business Development Progress
Agreement has now been reached with
the support of the Boards of both Golar and Perenco on the material
commercial terms and conditions for the approximate 1.2 million tonne,
8-year Cameroon FLNG project scheduled to commence operations in 2Q
2017. The Tolling Agreement which defines the material commercial terms
and conditions for the project is now subject to finalisation with SNH.
The Midstream Gas Convention setting out the regulatory and fiscal
regime governing the FLNG operations in Cameroon is now only subject to
finalisation with the government. All parties including the government
of Cameroon remain on track and are confident of approving the Tolling
Agreement and the Midstream Gas Convention by the end of September 2015.
Signing of these agreements will formalise FID for Golar's first GoFLNG
The Company expects the project in
Cameroon to deliver an EBITDA for Golar in the first full year of
operation, based on the utilisation of 2 of the available 4 liquefaction
trains, in the range of $170 million to $300 million, with a flexible
tolling structure which correlates to Brent crude oil prices ranging
from a floor of $60/bbl to a cap of $102/bbl.
Golar announced on May 5
that it had signed a binding Heads of Terms with Ophir Energy Plc for
the provision of the GoFLNG vessel Gimi or alternate. Subsequently the
Gandria was nominated for the Equatorial Guinea project so that Gimi can
be available in time for potential GoFLNG projects starting operations
in 2018. The agreement for Gandria will be structured as a 20-year
tolling contract, commencing commercial operations in the first half of
Golar, with its partners Keppel
Shipyard and Black & Veatch, committed to the Gimi FLNG conversion
in December 2014. Gimi and Gandria will both benefit from utilising the
same configuration of utilities and liquefaction facilities as sister
ship Hilli, with variations to Gandria to accommodate production direct
from the deep-water reservoir. During the quarter, additional detailed
engineering studies (FEED) were commenced for Gandria with the objective
of finalising the design and budget for the deep water variations. The
integrated Ophir/GEPetrol/Sonagas/Golar project remains on schedule to
take FID during the first half of 2016.
The Cedar LNG Project development
activity for the quarter included continued support of the NEB LNG
export application as well as focus on solidifying arrangements for gas
transportation service into the Douglas Channel area. The Company
continues to monitor development activities for the relevant large scale
pipeline projects upon which the first phase of Cedar LNG is dependent.
Golar is currently anticipating FID for Cedar Phase I to be achieved by
the end of 2016 assuming such third party pipelines maintain their
New GoFLNG business development
activity has been focused on maturing projects that have the potential
to commence operations in 2018. A shortlist of 4 potential projects is
currently subject to active discussions. Interestingly, each of these
projects is located in a completely separate geographic region. In each
of these projects the competitive tolling fees and flexible commercial
structures have the potential to generate very attractive economics,
even at today's low oil and LNG prices.
To meet potential customers' demand
for early commencement, Golar has initiated discussions with Keppel
Shipyard and Black & Veatch. The target is to achieve a fourth
conversion with a delivery in late 2018/early 2019. A commitment will be
dependent on Golar firming employment opportunities within 1Q 2016.
The recent weakness in oil and gas
prices has highlighted the benefits of a fast track FLNG solution versus
large, capital intensive greenfield LNG developments. In addition to
reduced capital expenditure and accelerated start up, the Company's
counterparts appreciate the flexibility the floating toll creates with
respect to term and volume. Several of the business opportunities
currently being discussed are based on stranded, associated or flared
gas with limited commercial value without monetization through LNG
Capital expenditure for new, large
scale Greenfield LNG developments shows a cash breakeven level from $10
per mmbtu and upwards. The cash breakeven level for a turnkey GoFLNG
development can be significantly lower.
The Company is confident that a
GoFLNG solution supplied with African or Asian gas reserves generates a
reasonable return both for producers and Golar even with European and
Asian gas prices at current levels. Significant upside can be monetized
if gas prices recover. Golar is further confident that with respect to
feed gas price, capital cost, transportation cost and flexibility, it
has a competitive advantage over US export projects.
As at June 30,
including the value of the original vessel, Golar has invested $411
million in the Hilli conversion project. Today this investment sits at
$424 million. From the end of September when the tolling agreement and
the midstream gas convention have been approved by SNH and the Cameroon
government, respectively, all remaining conversion and site specific
costs for the GoFLNG Hilli will be satisfied by a fully documented and
underwritten facility provided by CSSC (Hong Kong) Shipping Co. Ltd.
("CSSCL"). This will fund up to 80% of the GoFLNG Hilli.
The financing structure will be split
into two phases. Phase one enables Golar to draw down up to $700
million from the facility to fund the ongoing project cost once Golar
and its minority partners have spent $400 million of the estimated
$1.2bn project cost. Phase two is triggered upon delivery of the
converted GoFLNG Hilli from Keppel Shipyard and the satisfaction of
certain milestones. This will provide for the drawdown of a further
$260 million giving an aggregate $960 million. This final tranche is
expected to satisfy the remaining conversion costs outstanding at that
time and the remainder will be a release of the Company's equity.
The CSSCL financing has a tenor of
10-years, a 15-year amortisation profile and contemplates the eventual
sale of GoFLNG Hilli to Golar Partners. The expected cost of the
financing during the conversion period is 6.25% while the long term
financing is projected to cost less than 6% on a fully swapped ten year
The Company maintains a good
liquidity position notwithstanding the current weak operating results.
The cash balance at the end of 2Q is $375 million and a further $100
million is receivable from Golar Partners in respect of the Eskimo sale.
Additionally, the Company will receive $50 million in yearly
distributions from Golar Partners. The capital expenditure for Gimi and
Gandria over the next twelve months is to a large extent dependent on
progress with contractual employment discussions. As at June 30, 2015,
$50 million has been invested in the Gimi and Gandria conversions. If
no progress is made firming up employment opportunities, the total cash
expenditure will have increased to $65 million for these two vessels in
the period up to June 30, 2016, of which $30 million is recoverable in the case of termination.
Corporate and other matters
The recent collapse of oil and gas
prices has increased interest in LNG fueled combined cycle power
generation. A shortage of power in areas like Brazil, Indonesia, India
and South Africa and strong power prices in these areas together with
lower gas prices have dramatically improved the economics of gas fuelled
power generation. Simultaneously, we see stranded and associated gas
reserves that can be acquired at attractive valuations. The lack of near
term liquidity in the LNG market to a certain extent prevents resource
holders from developing reserves before they have firm off take
In order to develop Golar further and
accelerate the implementation of the GoFLNG concept, the Company has in
recent months been negotiating with Brazilian power partners. These
partners have been awarded a 25 year PPA contract with Brazilian
authorities to build and operate a 1.5 GWha LNG fuelled combined cycle
power station in Sergipe, Northern Brazil. Golar has negotiated a right
to participate in up to 25% of this project and has the exclusive right
to provide the FSRU. In addition to supplying the power station with
gas, the FSRU would also have excess capacity to deliver gas to the
Brazilian grid. The partners are currently working through the
permitting process and are in negotiations with LNG providers,
contractors and financiers. The capacity payment achieved in the PPA
contract was awarded at a historically high level. If Golar proceeds, it
would do so on the basis of an expected unleveraged project return in
excess of 15 %. Further upside is available based on usage.
Golar intends to establish a
stand-alone, non-recourse subsidiary, Golar Power Ltd. to hold this
investment. The Company's total commitment to this subsidiary will
initially be $5 million in liquidity lines and $24 million in
non-performance guarantees, effective from 2020. Further equity
investments would be needed if the project gets a final go ahead. It
would be Golar's intention to bring additional partners into Golar
Power. In addition to the solid project return, Golar would use this
position to accelerate its GoFLNG activities by creating a natural
partnership with power producers and traders. The target is to offer a
more integrated LNG solution to resource holders. Golar has approached
several leading trading companies with this idea and has received
encouraging feedback. A final clarification around this structure should
be expected before year-end.
The size of Golar's investments in
Golar Power will be relatively small compared to the Company's
commitment to FLNG, FSRUs and LNG shipping. Golar's business model
remains to be a midstream gas company focussed on tariff based FLNG
production. It is the Company's intention to separate Golar Power from
the rest of the activities over time. This can take place through a spin
off to Golar's shareholders.
True Story. One Reader who has the heart to find it and what it took for him to find it.
Wishing u a Happy and Prosperous New Year
I hope you wouldn't mind me calling you CW8888, as I saw how others
address you. And this way I can identify you better with your blog.
I was struck by your name, the 2 processes of Long Term and short
term trading are mentioned and these are what I've been struggling with
since I began.
I have a portfolio meant for long term and another for short term trading.
Yes, I have been meausring my results. Trading was not great last
year, does not meet my goal of what I set out to get per month, on the
average. Part of the problem is I'm still a newbie, just starting out.
Did not trade frequent enough. I tried to be a Positional Trader, not a
Contra trader. I think I know where the mistakes are, those counters
were definitely not mentioned in your blog, not blue chip calibre and
they are still bleeding. Still have not cut loss yet.
I used "profit" and now I have changed to "Return on Capital" and
"Total Return on Capital" to include the dividend received for the
portfolio, after I saw how you measured yours. Thanks for sharing, this
is very kind and very generous of you.
Actually, the results can be measured very easily also, against my
livelyhood. I think I won't be able to get another similar-paying job
after this, in fact getting a job at all would be a real challege for
me. I happen to be in a sunset industry far too long. Not much portable
skills for next one and not young any more. I had a "complete resume"
couple of years back, they said your resume is not complete until you
are retrenched once. A few of them go into trading. One succeeded and
now working as a remisier. Another I would say did not because he
started working again last year.
I have been tracking NetWorth for a couple of years, lumping the
portfolio in there. This year, I'm going to track the performance of
this portfolio by itself as well.
I still remembered how painful it was to see the value plunged in
the midst of last financial crisis in 2008/2009. I was lucky to get some
at the bottom and also unlucky to sell some of the very good blue chip
too soon and never get them back.
Just to say little bit more about myself, I have already paid up my
HDB by 37, does not own a car, 2 young children in school here, and I
also have similar goal, financial independence. If I'm successful, I
will achieve that by 50.
I'm digesting your pillow stock strategy...
How he spent his Chinese New Year holidays ...
Look forward to what you may write about the 2 processes
I'm looking forward to what you may write, about the theme in your blog, Long Term investment and Short Term trading.
I had first guessed you must have some background in Financials or
Accounting, from the way you use those financial formulas and the excel
data, charts and the top level summary and the ultimate measurement.
Before I see you using CAGR, I measure the yearly Net Asset change over
the base year and also yearly change.
Yep, I used the same hard way when going through your blogs during
these New Year holidays, keep hitting the older blogs and sometimes have
to start from the top of that month's blog to go down to the one I last
read. I think I'm about 90+% done. Phew, you have written so much and
Not a single morning went by without me thinking how I would start
the day when I lost my current job and have to start trading to earn a
What you wrote about getting out of the rat race, getting the mind
flip by the book Rich Dad Poor Dad ( my mind was first flipped by the
book Millionaire Next Door), made redundant and thank you by the company
when we are 40+ and older (happened to me when I was 39 and on the way
up in the rat race), strike a very resonant chord in me.
its December and its time for coffee, tea
and bread. Thank you so much for helping understand my naive thinking
and I do wish you can let me treat you to a simple kopi session.(
vegetarian one coz i'm one.)
Uncle8888 knows that most people are able to strengthen their war chest through their regular saving from their earned income; but NOT for Uncle8888.
In Jan 2000 at his age of 43+, he seriously came to the stock market with all he already had. He couldn't afford to lose more than that as it is really a sizable war chest from his past 23 years of saving. Remember that he is from single household income with three children and five mouths to feed. No extra money to play play in the stock market!
Till today in Aug 2015, even after 15 years of more earned income; it is still the same amount of capital available for investing. No more and no less. This is all part of prudent risk and money management in practice - strict discipline; greed and fear control at the maximum!
The best outcome arising this practice is that his investment performance is simple to measure and perfectly measured by XIRR as there is no complication of additions of new capital.
So how does Uncle8888 strengthen his war chest over market cycles?
Over the last 15 years; he did learn something about strengthening his war chest. You may like think over it even though you have the ability to strengthen your war chest through your regular saving.
There are two ways of strengthening his war chest - positively or negatively.
Positively by making hay while Sun shines or negatively by pulling out weeds from his garden.
He realized he has done both; but he finds that positively is still better than negatively. The down side could be many years of seeing dried hays doing nothing.
This can be sickening too!
No right or wrong as the size of war chest still count when it is needed!
Old man loves to repeat the same old stories over again and again to younger ones. You listen until sianz; but not the old man who does the talking.
Cutting losses is also market timing. Are we really good at market timing?
Cutting losses into cash (Exits) is not the same as switching horses. When we have locked in negative return by cutting losses into cash it becomes very hard to recover from cash position as it will require another market timing to get the right Entries. How good are we?
Wall Street dropped on Monday in
tumultuous action as traders raced into safe-haven assets amid mounting
worries over instability in China and emerging markets.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) skidded 588.5 points, or 3.6%, to 15871.3, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped 77.7 points, or 3.9%, to 1893.2, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell 179.8 points, or 3.8%, to 4526.3.
extremely volatile. The Dow plummeted 1089.4 points at the lows of the
session. Meanwhile, the CBOE's VIX spiked 41.6%. The gauge was up an
astounding 205.4% from the same day last week.
S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq both tumbled into correction territory, having
fallen 10% from a recent high. The latest round of selling stripped
some $811.5 billion in market value from U.S. firms.
The Dow Jones industrial average traded about 300 to 500 points
lower after falling as much as 1,089 points in the open. The index
traveled more than 3,000 points in down and up moves during the first 90
minutes of trade.
I am 60+ yrs old uncle living in HDB heartland who has retired @ 60 on 30 Sep 2016.
I have been doing long-term investing and short-term trading in Singapore stock market only since Jan 2000 and now becoming full-time retail investor. So I am that Panda or Koala in the investment world; but I am still surviving well in the wild.
I have two sons and one daughter; two working adult children and the youngest son is currently in his 1st year SUTD.
I am currently executing my Three Taps solution model to maintain sustainable retirement income for life till 2038
Last updated: 16 Oct 2016
Disclaimer: Stock trading involves significant risks. Create Wealth trader is not a licensed Investment Adviser and will not be responsible for any losses which you incurred. You are advised to always do your own homework before making any trading decision.