Without additional year on year voluntarily top up to our CPF accounts; for most of us, CPFIS is not our larger war chest so we have to be wiser not to be trigger happy and anyhow fire our limited bullets at Mr. Market.
Read? Keppel celebrates 45 years (2) Wah! So fast five years will pass in 2018. 50th year anniversary is Diamond celebration and it is very important milestone of a company so shareholders are expecting some goodies to be given out to them.
How do Uncle8888 know whether his stocks are good or bad investment? Of course; he cannot never forecast the stock price after Point X. Only those retail investors who are hardcore analysts themselves may like to think that they can analyze company's business into years away. Forecast the next few months is still very possible but over future economic and market cycles; it is damn hard! Never mind! Got Panadols to ease heartache. Okay lah! This is how many retail investors who like to think on Yield Focus, Read? Yield Focus Or Return On Invested Capital Focus??? (3) One excellent example of retail "investors" who are absolute yield focus. They are those who smile at higher yield when they "invest" in P2P.
Mr. Market will determine whether we are right or wrong according to how he dictates the future stock price movement. Now he knows which are his good or bad investment after Point X across economic and market cycles.
For simple reason on money management. When Uncle8888 is horribly and terribly wrong; he can only lose 100% of those invested capitals; but if he is ever right and continues to be right his Return on those invested capitals is N x 100% over long run. No need for emergency fund, buffer or whatsoever to meet margin calls! Just War Chest! Profit margin : -100% to N x 100% Yield on investment cost : 0% to XX%
Gender bias!!! Women can proudly call themselves housewife or fill up on their occupation as Housewife; but don't recall reading any men calling themselves househusband; but they called themselves early retirees!
What has changed since retirement from full-time employment with limited annual leaves? No more optimizing or maximizing itinerary! Agar agar what to see and then goes with the flow of the day since we now have more time to spare. No hurry!
Singapore Man of Leisure6 October 2017 at 23:31:00 GMT+8 CW, Now that'a thinking like land owners :) ReplyDelete
Read? Where Does The Money In The Stock Market Come From? The earlier we clearly understood where does the money in the stock market come from; we can adapt our investing strategies in this Game to avoid other players from eating our lunch! CW8888: Doing something similar to developers like CPL. LOL! Thinking like land owners! Holding freehold "properties" for yield! Infinite yield. Hosay liao!
Investing is about 3Ms - Method, Mind and Money Management One Starfish found out what was not covered at her paid investment course on Investing on S-REITs for income and learned something practical on money management at the price of Kopi O Kosong! What wrong with S-REITs as retirement income for cash TIGHT retirees who are depending on investment income to fund living expenses?
Seth Klarman, the value investing giant who draws comparisons to Warren Buffett, has a very large position in Puerto Rico's controversial debt. Klarman's hedge fund, Baupost, owns $911 million of the island's bonds through Decagon Holdings entities, according to a July public court filing. "The Baupost Group is a holder of COFINA bonds through the Decagon entities. Baupost regularly makes investments through subsidiary holding entities," Baupost spokeswoman Diana DeSocio wrote in an email. COFINA stands for the Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corp. that issues bonds. .... Baupost has $30 billion of assets under management as of March 2017, according to the firm. Klarman's fund has generatedannual returns of 16.4 percent and $22.6 billion in net profit for clients since inception through 2015, according to a Morgan Creek Capital letter. Baupost's main fund posted a 'high single-digit' return last year. The hedge fund manager has largely avoided controversy over his career and is often compared with Buffett for his disciplined investing philosophy and solid returns. As the political rhetoric heats up around what Wall Street is owed as Puerto Rico tries to recover from this tragedy, a negative spotlight could fall on owners of the controversial debt like Baupost.
Klarman started with the three key underlying pillars of his investing approach: 1. Analyze the potential for loss before gain: "You want to focus on risk before you focus on returns. … A lot of it is focusing on multiple scenarios, what can go wrong? How much can you lose?" 2. Absolute over relative returns: "The world is oriented to relative performance. Everybody is an asset gatherer. ... By contrast we think wealthy individuals and established institutions because of their risk aversion are interested in absolute returns. If you're focused on absolute returns the idea of losing people's money becomes fairly abhorrent. … Your goal is not to lose less, your goal is to try to make money all the time, protect capital on the downside and still do well enough on the upside."
3. Forget macro investing, instead focus on individual investment ideas: "Most of the investment world has a top down orientation. They think about how is the economy going to do? And how are foreign currencies going to do? How are interest rates going to do? … My view is that is incredibly difficult to do. I don't know anybody with a really good long-term demonstrated record of success of macro forecasting."
Peter Lynch : "best of all, he concludes, “I can take real vacations without having to leave phone numbers.” True!!! Two things have happened after retirement when taking real vacations: (1) Without having to leave phone numbers Out of Office notification I am away on overseas leave from XX/XX/XXXX to YY/YY/XXXX. If it is really urgent matters; you may wish to call me at XXXX XXXX; but I may be slow to respond. Thank you! (2) No more backlog to clear after vacation or clearing shits!
After 17 years with this pile of records and his performance review indicated that he should be better off at return on invested capital focus camp for the next market cycle! BTW, so far majority of personal financial investment bloggers in Singapore are in Yield focus camp. New dash board!
Including paper profits lost back to Mr. Market will remind him the execution of market timing is also critical.
Somehow; one day on 15 may 2017; he received an offer for 8 HWW (Hours Work Week). A simple job with plenty of walking exercise on every Mondays and Thursday (any time from 11 AM to 6 PM to complete this simple job task. Uncle8888 takes less than 4 hours to complete each task with his power walk)
With this 8 HWW; he should also qualify for 2018 WIS as low income workforce. Likely he will continue as self-employed 8 HWW low income worker for awhile and getting paid at the same time for his weekly walking exercise. Since he has been power walking and climbing escalators at many MRT stations every weekdays; he now no longer need to jog the park connectors to burn body fat! BTW, one of his neighbors said: "Your manager's pay not bad; why don't you continue working until 65?"
Thursday, 4 June 2015 Read? Baby Boomers in 1950s are going to sell their house for retirement!!! Read? More may be able to transfer CPF savings to parents and grandparents SINGAPORE - More people may soon be able to help their elders save for retirement. Changes to the Central Provident Fund (CPF) Act have been proposed in Parliament to lower the minimum amount they must hold in their own CPF accounts before making transfers to their parents and grandparents. Currently, CPF members must meet the prevailing Full Retirement Sum - which is $166,000 for CPF members aged 55 this year - before they can transfer extra savings to their parents' or grandparents' accounts. Members aged 55 and above need to meet the retirement sum specified for their cohort. Under the changes proposed by the Manpower Ministry (MOM) on Monday (Oct 2), CPF members will be able to make the transfers if they have at least the Basic Retirement Sum - which is half the full sum - and a sufficient property pledge or charge to make up the rest of the full sum. The ministry said in a press statement that this change is part of enhancements "which aim to improve the retirement adequacy of CPF members". Last year, the threshold to make transfers to a spouse's CPF account was lowered to the Basic Retirement Sum, instead of the full sum. CW8888 Look like Uncle8888's observation and what he knew from conversation with many of his peers in the last few years is getting momentum from the Government's concern on current parents' or grandparents' retirement adequacy. The next decade or 1.5 decades we may see flood of housing downgrade and rental vacancy.
RayNg1 October 2017 at 08:05:00 GMT+8 SMOL "If you tell your readers your 10 bagger Keppel or Sembawang is only 1000 shares each, they will go, "Cheh!" LOL! -------------------------------- Yes, beside getting it right and hold, the sizing is also equally important.
Position sizing? Your account size really matters! Account size? Your earned income and saving rate really matters! Earned income? Your progressive career path really matters! Progressive career? Your bosses really matter! Bosses? Don't ever offend your bosses!
Singapore Man of Leisure 29 September 2017 at 10:12:00 GMT+8 Readers out there who may want to ask CW out for kopi kosong, you may want to jio me along! I play the role of "got shadow or not" verification ;) Especially if you believe in the "clash of ideas". Don't believe? I'll show you. Of all the highlights, CW, you left out the most important "HOW" bit: "You want to let the winners run. When the fun ones get better, add to 'em, and that one winner." If you tell your readers your 10 bagger Keppel or Sembawang is only 1000 shares each, they will go, "Cheh!" LOL! I hope this settles the question of concentration versus diversification ;) CW8888 OK. OK. Now shows the most important "How" on When the fun ones get better, add to 'em, and that one "winner".
Of course, he was having fun until Mr. Market came to spoil the fun ones! :-(
How different from Peter's quote : So there's lots of stocks out there and all you need is a few of 'em. So that's been my philosophy. You have to let the big ones make up for your mistakes. There are 30 STI Blue Chips on quarterly survival-ship reviews; you just have to let that few blue chips bought on SGX Great Sales and let these few big ones make up for your losses in those few blue-black chips. You don't believe in Peter's quote? You basically see a few stocks in your lifetime, that's all you need. I mean stocks are out there. So there's lots of stocks out there and all you need is a few of 'em. So that's been my philosophy. You have to let the big ones make up for your mistakes. Hmm ... surprising even one "Guru" conducting course doesn't really understand it too. These wise words from Peter Lych are too cheem!
Of course; we will make mistakes even Peter Lych and Warren Buffet made mistakes; but they made much more money when they are right! That is the great different! Read? When a Giant Gain Causes Pain (5)
Last night; one ex-vendor and ex-colleague jio Uncle8888 for dinner at the famous Clementi Satay. Of course; when they have dinner with Uncle8888; one of the thing to talk about will be on investing. This ex-vendor is amazed at Uncle8888's decades of holding multi-bagger stocks and seriously he wanted to learn from him on how to hold multi-bagger stocks over the next market cycles. His biggest regret of unable to hold winning stocks and this he must learn from Uncle8888 for the next bear market. Uncle8888 bought DBS at $7.53; but he bought DBS at lower than Uncle8888 at $6+.
The biggest regret is that he sold DBS far too early; otherwise he will be the one telling better story of high yield of 9% multi-bagger blue chip - DBS.
Read? Randomness, Chance, Luck And Co-incidence??? Are randomess, chance, luck and co-incidence co-related to the Law of Large Number? Uncle8888 tends to believe so! E.g. large account size; large this and that etc. Uncle8888 has over the past one year picked one Indian passport; mobile phone, and several EZ link cards, student passes and coins during his roaming across large geographical areas on trains and buses. Just recently picked up his ex-company unknown colleague's staff pass. LOL!
Law of Large Number at work! Applicable to long-term investing? Concentration or Diversification? Apply diversification first and then eventually let your outcome and performance filtered out as concentrate. May be this is the way how retail investors can win this Game of investing!
Lynch provides insight on how to achieve exceptional results In an interview he gave to PBS, Peter Lynch discussed what is needed to achieve a track record similar to his. Even though the answer seems simple on the surface, it has many insights that are worth commenting on. Q: Was that your secret? A: Well, I think the secret is, if you have a lot of stocks, some will do mediocre, some will do OK, and if one or two of 'em go up big time, you produce a fabulous result. And I think that's the promise to some people. Some stocks go up 20% to 30%, and they get rid of it, and they hold on to the dogs. And it's sort of like watering the weeds and cutting out the flowers. You want to let the winners run. When the fun ones get better, add to 'em, and that one winner, you basically see a few stocks in your lifetime, that's all you need. I mean stocks are out there. When I ran Magellan, I wrote a book. I think I listed over 100 stocks that went up over tenfold when I ran Magellan, and I owned thousands of stocks. I owned none of these stocks. I missed every one of these stocks that went up over tenfold. I didn't own a share of them. And I still managed to do well with Magellan. So there's lots of stocks out there and all you need is a few of 'em. So that's been my philosophy. You have to let the big ones make up for your mistakes. CW8888: Sometime; Uncle8888 smiled when some people to like to quote fallen blue chips to blue black chips. So what are STI blue chips? They are actually nothing more than survival chips. Some will survive long enough to make their shareholders rich enough and not having to worry anymore on losing their hard earned saving. Some will turn into Blue-black chips! The rest are so and so; but still providing Panadols to ease heartache! How many retail really understand it? How different from Peter's quote : So there's lots of stocks out there and all you need is a few of 'em. So that's been my philosophy. You have to let the big ones make up for your mistakes. There are 30 STI Blue Chips on quarterly survival-ship reviews; you just have to let that few blue chips bought on SGX Great Sales and let these few big ones make up for your losses in those few blue-black chips. You don't believe in Pete's quote? you basically see a few stocks in your lifetime, that's all you need. I mean stocks are out there. So there's lots of stocks out there and all you need is a few of 'em. So that's been my philosophy. You have to let the big ones make up for your mistakes.
Just recently; Uncle8888 has repeated this to someone who was having Kopi-O kosong with him. It is especially true when you have a nice salary and stable job; and not having to worry about getting retrenchment for the next one to two decades. You can then spend more time & energy to focus on personal investing to accelerate your wealth building to reach F.I.R.E. You win liao!
MORE CPF members who invested their savings in their ordinary account (OA) under the Central Provident Fund Investment Scheme (CPFIS) outperformed the guaranteed annual 2.5 per cent interest rate per annum in fiscal year 2016. Some 78 per cent of active CPF investment account holders or 441,000 members achieved profits larger than 2.5 per cent in the 12 months to Sept 30, 2016 as equity markets recovered from the 2015 rut. Some 12 per cent or 66,000 active CPF investors incurred losses on their investments. This was a marked improvement from the preceding fiscal year, when only 27 per cent of active CPF investors made profits larger than 2.5 per cent or 159,000 members while some 58 per cent or 340,000 members made losses. Under the scheme, CPF members can invest in CPFIS-included funds such as approved unit trusts and equity funds, as well as other investment products such as stocks and shares, after setting aside S$20,000 and S$40,000 in their OA and Special Account (SA) respectively. The CPF Board has tweaked the way it measures the performance of investments made through OA savings under the CPFIS to be more aligned with the industry practice of fund managers. It has excluded CPFIS account holders with no investments, and factored in unrealised gains or losses for investments held during the reporting period from Oct 1 to Sept 30. Previously, the annual report on the performance of CPFIS-OA only captures realised profits or losses and includes all members with a CPF Investment Account even if they have no investments. The change in the formula will hence better reflect members' total investment portfolio performance, rather than just realised performance. But it will also lead to more volatile changes in performance on a yearly basis. To reflect longer-term performance, the CPF Board will also provide the cumulative profit or losses over time. These changes are made in response to an observation by the CPF Advisory Panel in August 2016 that the investment performance under CPFIS could include unrealised returns where relevant. But given the resource constraints for industry players to re-compute the data using the new methodology for past years, the CPF Board could only go as far back as fiscal 2015. Applying the new methodology for fiscal 2015, the proportion of members with losses was revised to 58 per cent from 38 per cent under the old method. (CW8888: Wah!) The proportion of members who made profits larger than the guaranteed annual 2.5 per cent interest rate for OA savings was 27 per cent instead of 16 per cent. The old way of calculating also included CPF members who have an investment account but did not make any investment last year, while the new method excluded that group. The previous calculation included 909,000 members while the new method covers 583,000 members.
CW8888: 58% or 340,000 CPF members lost money (realized & unrealized) 27% made more than 2.5% 15% breakeven
Hmm ... Look like there may be more demand for investment talks and courses! Look at STI! Mr. Bear is still sleeping! When Mr. Bear wakes up ... may be 90% will lose money!
Over the past one year of roaming over the land of Singapore and eating here and there at different hawker centres. Uncle8888 has bumped into several people whom he hasn't met for many donkey years those ex or ex-ex, e.g. neighbour, colleagues, suppliers, classmates, army buddies, etc These happening has made Uncle8888 wondering how come like that? Probably it is due to more exposure of larger land coverage and larger time coverage; because Uncle8888 roams about in the morning, afternoon, evening and also many nights of Mon, Wed and Fri. May be investing for multi-baggers is also like that. Larger coverage of selected stocks and larger time frame across market cycles; we may see randomness, chance, luck and co incidence at work. Hmm ...
Active vs. Passive Investing and the “Suckers at the Poker Table” Fallacy Who are the real suckers? Uncle8888's has heard many time when he encountered new faces/starfishes that his slides are so cheem!
What is the real debate behind Active (DIY) vs. Passive (Index investing)?
One statement to clearly differentiate it: It is about building up one's own investing competency beyond self doubt! Self-doubt? No?
Unless it is your own company or your father's company. The day will come that the company thinks that it has given him enough grace or Face to "force" him to retire. No more extension for him. Now he became ex-GCTO of Uncle8888's ex-company. We can love our job and want to work till our death; but; the company can't love us till our death to part!
Uncle8888 doesn't! That is why he has Tap 2 as self-insured medical and health care fund in addition to coverage by medical insurance.
"We have bought insurances coverage on good faith; but don't ever expect the insurance companies to pay our claims on good faith as they are not our father or mother who helps to pour milk into our mouth as they exist to make money for their Management and their shareholders." - Createwealth8888
Uncle8888 was flipping the pages of SundayTimes at NLB when he came to read on ME & MY MONEY.
Vicom was one "Guru" stock pick. BreadTalk was the other late "Guru" stock pick. He was very curious to know what was or is that multi-bagger stock pick by this value investing "Guru".
But, he was shocked, arh and walau at the answer! When he recovered from the initial shock; he thinks deeper why like that! Yeap! "Guru" was right! He is actually running a training school business making much more money than investment return from personal financial investment from stocks picking. Now "Guru" answer made real sense to Uncle8888. Truly honest answer! Fully agreed! "Guru" best investment is Msc (e-business).
2. Maximum CPF allocation to CPF OA is 23% of wage 3. The Ordinary Wage (OW) Ceiling limits the amount of OW that would attract CPF contributions. The OW Ceiling is capped at $6,000 currently. (Before 1 Jan 2016, OW Ceiling was $5,000) 4. Assuming 3 months year end bonus. 5. Median gross monthly income in 2016 is $4,056 and i.e. 68% of OW Ceiling of $6,000
How much can we possibly have in our CPFIS as war chest? By simplifying the Maths Maximummandatory contribution to CPF OA as employees at OW Ceiling = 23% x $6,000 x 15 = $20,700 per year For 10 years : $207,000 in CPFOA or 35% for CPFIS = $72, 450 For 20 years : $414,000 in CFP OA or 35% for CPFIS = $144,900 For many of us, if not most of us as employees will not have large CPFIS as war chest. Right? So how to win this CPFIS war game? Understand their wise words
"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." ~ George Soros In the famous book entitled Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Jessie Livermore said: “After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level, which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine -- that is, they made no real money out of it. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.” Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Many financial investment writers out there in the cyber world like to share on theories and concepts so it is about time for Uncle8888 to share with you the story of Coca Cola - The Real Thing! Hmm .. may be too young to know this past long running advertisement of Coca Cola. It is harder to tune to the whisper of lone voice among the loud Pipers' call in the social media of investing circus showing amazing acts with CPF accounts for retirement; but finally we still have to choose our own poison to act!
That is equivalent of $17.8K top up to his CPF OA per year for 17 years since Uncle8888 started as serious retail investor from Jan 2000 to 2017. On top of $303K, each refund back to CPF OA will continue to earn 2.5% compound interests for X to 1X years. Total investment gains will include another $XX,XXX interests and the best part is that counting of investment gains is not ending soon. For how many more good years to count? Don't know!
PS: The current CPF Annual Limit is $37,740 since 2016. Hmm .. Effective top up to his CPF OA = $20,700 + 17,836 = $38,536. Whoa! CPF OA has exceeded CPF Annual Limit of $37,740 for voluntary CPF Top up!
Depending on who we ask? Those earlier years investors who have stayed invested decades ago or those recent years investors? Those earlier years investors who have been laughing to the bank year on year for a long time may now tell you this ... Okay lah. Now earn lesser la! Our investment outcome is always relative to the time frame of reference.
No more eating snake during office hours e.g. extended tea breaks and lunch breaks, chatting in forums and cboxes, surfing the web for financial stuff, etc Actually as employees; eating snake is quite shiok as you still get paid for it!
I am 61 yrs old uncle living in HDB heartland who has achieved financial independence @ 56 and retired @ 60 from full-time job as employee.
Single household income since 1995 with three children. Eldest son and daughter are now working and youngest son still in his 2nd year uni in SUTD.
I have been doing long-term investing and short-term trading in Singapore stock market only since Jan 2000 so I am that Panda or Koala in the investment world; but I am still surviving well in the wild.
I am now executing my Three Taps solution model to maintain sustainable retirement income for life till 2038.
Last updated: 3 Sep 2017
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