As from April 2013 my Journey in Investing is to create Retirement Income for Life till 80 years old for two over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

Welcome to Ministry of Wealth!

This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

It is here where I share with you how I did it! FREE Education in stock market wisdom.

Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down



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Value Investing
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Technical Analysis and Charting
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Friday, 16 June 2017

How Much Money Is Enough For Our Retirement???



Read? The Impact of Guaranteed Income and Dynamic Withdrawals on Safe Initial Withdrawal Rates


Walau!

Those experts are making retirement planning so complicated and full of formula and probabilities.

So far Uncle8888 has find this model for retirement planning easier to plan and understand.

Less Analyzing. More Retiring - CW8888


Read? Romance of retirement very much alive


The way Uncle8888 plans for his own retirement to build sustainable retirement income for life is ...


Step 1 : Know your past annual household expenses. The longer historical data will be more useful and practical guide to forecast how much money is enough factoring inflation.

Step 2 : Don't be afraid to include asset draw-down strategy as part of cash flow to fund future expenses when necessary. This will be the Mother of high probability of success in your retirement planing.

Step 3: Include other sources of cash flow e.g. investment income; ad hoc, part-time or free lance income ; even small or little it will help to extend your retirement plan by 0.XX% decimal points.

Step 4: Other fixed income for your emergency and medical contingency fund on top of whatever medical insurance you deem to be sufficient and practical for your personal medial lifestyle. 

People can be very damn funny. They may swear to be frugal and live their daily life in Ward C and choose the cheapest option available to prove that they are frugal; but they fall sick and thinking that they are going to die soon; then they want to choose the best and willing to pay for the best at high costs at Ward A. 

Strange!

Read? Medi Shield or Private Shield?





12 comments:

  1. Rolf Suey16 June 2017 at 00:40:00 GMT+8

    maybe our money leave for our loved ones may not be as good an idea after all, bcos there r times that they may not only squander it and may even will become taking things for granted.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Another reason to include asset draw-down strategy

      Delete
    2. CW,

      If the so called "experts" don't make it "complicated", how to convince people to PAY them for their "advice"?

      "Free" advice can be the most EXPENSIVE...


      P.S. You poke on those who espouse a frugal and minimalistic lifestyle, yet when it comes to integrated policies... LOL!

      Reminds me of the old joke. Everyone wants to go to heaven. But no one wants to die first...

      Delete
    3. If your children are capable of earning a reasonable living, then any thing left behind for them is a bonus.

      No need worry for them.

      What if one of them is not able to even earn a basic living, then what?

      Create a "Spendthrift trust"?

      Delete
  2. Uncle SMOL,

    Experts == > Complicated == > Charge $$$

    You hit it right on the nail!! I was thinking exactly the same thing when I read the 1st sentence of Uncle CW's blog post. Hahaha!!!

    Anyway, this is not new. Backtest, monte carlo simulations, wooly calculations, black magic, hocus pocus, academic research etc has been done on this for at least 25 years in Ivy League ivory towers liao. Even got Nobel laureates economic professors also jump in & provide their Greek alphabet integration differentiation calculus formulas.

    (BTW, the simple PV / FV formula is actually an integration calculus formula)

    I first read about this in the mid-1990s. To make it simplistic, the basic conclusion for fixed drawdown is to start off with 4% of portfolio value (this is annual amount), and then increase the drawdown by inflation rate annually, say 3%.

    To have good probability (e.g. >80% chance) of portfolio lasting till 95 yrs old, there should still be significant asset allocation to stocks e.g. 30%.

    But all these based on black magic chanting, paper back-testing and probability analysis using monte carlo simulations, and some blood sacrifices.

    In recent years, because of the "new normal" with 2 big market declines in early 2000s and 2008, people are saying that portfolio returns in future will not be so good as in the past, and so initial withdrawal of 3% will be safer.

    The paper that Uncle CW linked is saying that after all their black magic mumbo jumbo, that initial 4% still OK lah. Although the experts cover their ass by saying DEPENDs on whether retirees are "flexible", can "downgrade" or "downsize", whether got guaranteed pension or annuity or not. Wah Lao!!!

    PS: For those scared their descendants will squander their inheritance, just put into trust. Can specify monthly withdrawals on fixed or percentage amounts. Can also specify certain conditions when & how much large amounts of money released e.g. medical emergencies, when children reach 50 yrs old, etc etc.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Spur,

      Let's keep it casual and informal here - just call me SMOL or Jared ;)

      If you call me "yan eh", I'll buy coffee!


      Delete
    2. hahahaha.... SMOL got promoted!

      Delete
  3. "Spendthrift Trust"

    A Trust is not too difficult to set up.

    The difficult part is finding a suitable TRUSTEE.

    The cost of maitaining the TRUST may be too costly.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For children who REALLY need Trust e.g. physically or mentally handicapped.

      There is Special Needs Trust Company which is supported by Ministry of Social & Family Development and National Council of Social Services.
      https://www.sntc.org.sg/

      Principal value of the trust funds is guaranteed by SG govt.

      Fees are 90% to 100% subsidized by MSF.

      But for rich spoilt brats, SORRY HORRR!!! Go set up your billion dollar trust fund with HSBC Trustees or something. Hahahaha!!!!

      Delete
    2. You can set up a "Special Trust" manage by kaki lun FOC.

      Then any amount also can.

      Delete

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